9月27日周五，德意志银行经济学家Phil Odonagho发布报告称，欧洲央行可能加速降息，12月可能降50基点。Source: Wall Street See
Author: Jiang Zihan
Deutsche Bank predicts that the European Central Bank will start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points from December until reaching a final rate of 2%-2.5%. At the same time, the possibility of the ECB directly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in December cannot be ruled out. Apart from the Fed, many central banks globally are transitioning from cutting rates by 25 basis points to significantly cutting rates by 50 basis points.
After the Fed's significant 50 basis points rate cut, the ECB also wants to follow suit. Will they take a big step with a 50 basis point rate cut?
On Friday, September 27, Deutsche Bank economist Phil Odonagho released a report stating that the European Central Bank may accelerate rate cuts, with a possible 50 basis point cut in December.
Deutsche Bank predicts that the European Central Bank will start reducing rates by 25 basis points from December until reaching a final interest rate of 2%-2.5%. At the same time, the possibility of the ECB directly cutting rates by 50 basis points in December cannot be ruled out. Earlier, Deutsche Bank expected the ECB to reduce rates by 25 basis points every quarter and reach the final interest rate by the end of 2025.
However, the market generally expects the ECB to cut rates in October. Currently, the market bets that there is an 80% probability that the ECB will cut rates by another 25 basis points on October 17. HSBC also expects the ECB to cut rates in October. HSBC's Chief European Economist Simon Wells and his team believe that the ECB will start a continuous reduction of 25 basis points from October until the deposit rate drops from the current 3.5% to 2.25%.
Why is the market's expectation for the ECB to accelerate rate cuts rapidly increasing? One major reason is that concerns about inflation in the eurozone are gradually dissipating.
This morning, France and Spain released inflation data. France's consumer prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in September, the first time in over three years the rate has been lower than 2%. The main reason is the decrease in energy prices. Due to the decrease in fuel, electrical utilities, and food prices, Spain's inflation rate also dropped to 1.7% year-on-year, below expectations.
Apart from the Federal Reserve, many central banks globally are transitioning from a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a significant 50 basis point cut phase.
On September 26, the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.0% as expected, and indicated that "further rate cuts may be possible in the coming quarters", which is more dovish than before. The Swiss National Bank may become the first G10 central bank to lower rates below the estimated neutral rate.
On September 25, the Swedish central bank announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 3.25%. The Swedish central bank also stated that in the remaining two monetary policy meetings this year, there could be further rate cuts, and a 50 basis point cut is possible at one of these meetings.
Editor/Jeffy
