Key points of investment

One-sentence logic

Lansi Technology is the world's leading manufacturer of exterior structural components, and has achieved vertical integration of the smart terminal industry supply chain through a platform-based extension of structural parts, modules, and assembly. In the next few years, we believe that the company is expected to achieve more than 35% platform-based composite growth on a large-scale basis, which is expected to continue to exceed market expectations, while the release and iteration of Apple Intelligence will drive growth to further exceed expectations.

Where did the company's expectations fall short?

The market's expectations for the iPhone 16 have been very low in the past two months. The adjustments have continued for nearly two months, and the time is already relatively sufficient. Investment institutions' psychological game against Apple came to an end after the 9.9 Apple press conference.

Overall, current market stock prices already reflect this negative expectation.

AI has evolved to the present, moving towards the 2C side. The two biggest applications are mobile phones and cars. The most directly representative brands at the cutting edge are Apple and Tesla. The core point that was originally anticipated in this round of fruit chain upward was not just this year's iPhone 16. More importantly, it is actually next year's iPhone 17. Now they are bearish on the iPhone 16 pre-order volume. The expected anchor may be biased and too pessimistic. Moreover, the implementation of AI applications itself is also a cumulative process between mobile phones and apps. We should have confidence in the fruit chain and be more patient at the same time.

For Lansi Technology, we judge that the company's compound profit growth rate is expected to exceed 35% this year and next two years. The driving mechanism for growth exceeding expectations is as follows:

1. Driven by AI demand, important customers in North America continue to upgrade their evolving and iterative requirements for appearance and cooling in an environment of intense homogenization competition.

2. The company's own categories cover the continuous expansion of the ASP business, from glass to metal, to assembly business, which in turn drives an increase in the total ASP value of the company's products and the strengthening of its ability to resist cyclical fluctuations.

3. With the introduction of new customers in the assembly business, the overall share of the assembly business will continue to increase in the future, and the scale effect will continue to expand.

4. Smartphones are gradually evolving from straight board models to folding models, and in this UTG segment, the company undoubtedly has a strong competitive advantage.

5. From an industry perspective, the application of glass substrates in chips is an important future direction, and in terms of processing microholes, holes, edges, materials, etc. of glass, Lansi has a very solid foundation and foundation.

Inspection and catalysis

Inspection indicators: The impact of Apple Intelligence on iPhone 16 shipments after release; the company's revenue performance in the second half of the year; iPhone 17 component innovation implementation and supplier share catalysts: Apple Intelligence's positive drive for iPhone shipments after release? Research value

Currently, the market's expectations for iPhone 16 and 17 shipments and the specific features of Apple Intelligence are divided. We believe that AI has evolved to the present, moving towards the 2C side. The smartphone is one of the largest applications. The most cutting-edge representative brand is Apple, and the implementation of AI terminals is a process of continuous accumulation on the application side, so the second half of this year to next year is the best time window to track the implementation of Apple Intelligence. It is also the best time window for tracking the implementation of Apple Intelligence. It is also the continuous growth of the core supplier performance of the fruit chain represented by Lansi stage.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 71.2 billion, 106.7 billion, and 140.20 billion yuan, respectively, up 30.66%, 49.86%, and 31.40% year on year, and corresponding net profit to mother is 4.072 billion, 5.962 billion yuan, and 7.495 billion yuan, respectively, up 34.78%, 46.40%, and 25.72% year-on-year, and PE corresponding to the current market value is 19.85, 13.56, and 10.78 times, respectively. We expect the compound growth rate of the company's net profit in 2024-2026 to exceed 35%, giving the company 20 times the PE valuation in 2025. The corresponding market value is 119.24 billion, and the current price space is 48%, maintaining the purchase rating.

Risk warning

1. Constrained by the slow recovery of the global economy, the smartphone boom fell short of expectations, and shipments of key customer models fell short of expectations; 2. The company's key customer appearance and function innovation fell short of expectations; 3. Customer expansion and order acquisition in the metal structural parts and machine assembly business were blocked.