国内厨小电市场成熟，预计九阳2024 年营收同比增长2.9%：1）据AVC 数据，包含料理机、饭煲与空炸等品类的厨小电市场1H24 线上/线下零售额分别同比下滑5%/12%，行业已然步入成熟期。在大盘增长承压下，竞争进一步加剧，从1Q24 以价换量转为2Q24 量价齐跌。九阳顺应K 型消费趋势，在加速迭代太空科技旗舰品类（零涂层电饭煲40N9UPro 与全能破壁营养大师等）的同时，也拓宽该系列价格带激活不同层级消费者的替换需求，并进一步丰富低价流量入口品的供应，2Q24 内销营收基本同比持平。2）虽然短期厨小电行业可能延续量价齐跌趋势，但随前期费用投入逐步变现与Shark 平躺洗地机等新品贡献更多增量，我们预计九阳2H24 内销营收在相对低基数下同比增长5.0%，2024 全年内销营收同比增长4.8%。在九阳下半年为SharkNinja 代工更多新品的预期下，我们预计全年外销营收下滑幅度收窄至3.3%，由此我们预计2024 年九阳整体营收同比增长2.9%至99.0 亿元。The domestic kitchen appliance market has reached maturity, and we expect Joyang's revenue to increase 2.9% year-on-year in 2024;
Profit margins are under pressure in the short term. Net profit margin is expected to remain flat at 4.0% year on year in 2024, once again testing the ability to expand in multiple categories;
The purchase rating was maintained, and the target price was lowered by 35% to 11.00 yuan, corresponding to 19 times the 2025 P/E.
The domestic small kitchen appliance market is mature, and Joyang's revenue is expected to increase 2.9% year on year in 2024:1) According to AVC data, the 1H24 online/offline retail sales of the small kitchen appliance market, which includes categories such as cooking machines, rice cookers, and air fryers, fell 5%/12% year on year, respectively, and the industry has already entered a mature period. Under pressure from market growth, competition further intensified, shifting from 1Q24 to volume falling sharply in 2Q24. Joyang follows the K-type consumer trend. While speeding up the iteration of space technology's flagship categories (zero-coating rice cooker 40N9UPro and Omnipotent Nutritionist, etc.), Joyang also broadened the price band of this series to activate the replacement needs of consumers at different levels and further enrich the supply of low-volume imported products. Domestic sales revenue remained flat year-on-year in 2Q24. 2) Although the small kitchen appliance industry may continue to decline in volume and price in the short term, with the gradual monetization of upfront cost investment and new products such as the Shark floor washer, we expect the domestic sales revenue of Joyang 2H24 to increase 5.0% year on year at a relatively low base, and domestic sales revenue will increase 4.8% year on year in 2024. With the expectation that Joyang will OEM more new products for SharkNinja in the second half of the year, we expect the decline in export sales revenue to narrow to 3.3% for the whole year. As a result, we expect Joyang's overall revenue to increase 2.9% year-on-year to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024.
Short-term profit margins are under pressure. The net profit margin is expected to remain flat at 4.0% in 2024, once again testing the ability to expand in multiple categories: 1) Joyang continues to optimize its product structure under market pressure, driving the domestic sales gross margin and core business profit margin to improve the low number of units in 2Q24. However, since all existing categories have reached maturity, the company has increased R&D and promotion of industry segments such as stoves, water purifiers, and cleaning appliances, putting pressure on short-term profit margins. In anticipation of a marginal improvement in 2H24 revenue growth and a more significant cost amortization effect, we expect Joyang's net interest rate to be flat at 4.0% year on year in 2024, corresponding to a slight increase of 1.6% to 0.4 billion yuan in net profit to mother. 2) Although Joyang's domestic sales have faced development bottlenecks in recent years, after reviewing the company's 30-year development history, Joyang's ability to explore gaps in the market, product innovation, and activate potential demand and marketing capabilities have been repeatedly verified throughout its diversification of categories. These are Joyang's genes and are fundamental to supporting its continued expansion in the future. We still have confidence in Joyang's medium- to long-term development.
Profit forecast and valuation: Maintain the purchase rating and lower the target price by 35% to $11.00, corresponding to 19 times the 2025 P/E:
We lowered 2024/25 revenue by 10.5%/13.0%, and introduced the 2026 forecast. Revenue is expected to increase 2.9%/4.9%/4.8% year over year to 99.0/ 103.8/ 10.88 billion yuan, respectively; lowered 2024/25 net profit by 39.3%/38.4%, and introduced the 2026 forecast. Net profit to mother is expected to increase 1.6%/13.2%/13.5% year over year to 4.0/ 4.5/ 0.51 billion, respectively yuan. We switched the valuation base year to 2025 and gave Joyang 19 times P/E, corresponding to the new target price of 11.00 yuan. The old target price was reduced by 35%, and there is still room for 19% increase compared to the present. Risk warning: demand for small household appliances is weak; raw material prices are rising; macroeconomic decline.
