Microsoft's AI Lead Shrinks: Analyst Downgrades Stock As Amazon And Google Close The Gap
Microsoft's AI Lead Shrinks: Analyst Downgrades Stock As Amazon And Google Close The Gap
Luria noted that Microsoft has accelerated growth and extended margins over the last few quarters as the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. Through an early investment in OpenAI and the ability to quickly deploy capabilities within Azure and GitHub, it took a significant lead over DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria downgraded the rating on Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) to Neutral from Buy while maintaining a price target of $475.
DA Davidson分析師Gil Luria將對微軟公司（納斯達克:MSFT）的評級從買入調降至中立，同時保持目標股價在475美元。
Luria noted competition has essentially caught up with Microsoft on the AI front, which reduces the justification for the current premium valuation.
Luria指出，競爭對手在人工智能領域基本趕上了微軟，這減少了目前溢價估值的正當性。
The analyst now ranked Microsoft fourth within the Magnificient Six. The stock increased 92% since his January 2023 initiation, compared to 49% for the S&P500.
分析師目前將微軟排名Magnificient Six中的第四。該股自2023年1月起漲幅達92%，相比標普500指數的49%。
Luria noted that Microsoft has accelerated growth and extended margins over the last few quarters as the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. Through an early investment in OpenAI and the ability to quickly deploy capabilities within Azure and GitHub, it took a significant lead over Amazon.Com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) Amazon Web Service and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud, which translated to superior results over the prior 4-6 quarters.
Luria指出，微軟在過去幾個季度加速增長並擴大利潤率，首個擁抱並商業化生成式人工智能。通過早期投資於OpenAI以及在Azure和GitHub快速部署能力的能力，比亞馬遜公司（納斯達克:AMZN）亞馬遜網絡服務和alphabet inc（納斯達克:GOOG）（納斯達克:GOOGL）谷歌雲等先前4-6個季度取得優異業績的領先地位。
The analyst noted that Microsoft's lead is now diminished in both the cloud and code generation businesses, making it difficult for Microsoft to continue to outperform.
分析師指出，微軟在雲計算和代碼生成業務中的領先地位現已減弱，這使得微軟繼續跑贏的難度增加。
Luria said AWS is already adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure after a few quarters of Microsoft adding more business. Google Cloud Platform's expansion has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure prior quarter.
Luria表示，AWS在幾個季度後已經幾乎增加了與Azure相當的雲業務。Google Cloud Platform的擴張也導致其業務增速加快，與之前的Azure相當。
The analyst's new proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis indicates AWS and GCP are far ahead in deploying their silicon into their data centers, giving them a significant advantage over Azure in the future.
分析師的新專有超大規模半導體分析表明，AWS和GCP在將芯片部署到其數據中心方面遙遙領先，這使它們在未來對Azure具有顯著優勢。
While Microsoft has discussed its Maia chips, it is years behind Amazon and Google and seems to be using them only to run Azure OpenAI Services workloads, he flagged. Luria noted this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms race it may not be able to prevail. He said this makes Microsoft beholden to Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), which means it will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to Nvidia shareholders.
微軟已經討論了它的Maia芯片，但它落後於亞馬遜和谷歌幾年，似乎只是用它們來運行Azure OpenAI服務的工作負載，他指出。Luria指出，這意味着微軟一直在升級一場可能無法取勝的軍備競賽。他說這使得微軟受制於Nvidia公司（納斯達克：NVDA），這意味着它將繼續從股東那裏將財富轉移到Nvidia股東身上。
After significant margin expansion last year, Microsoft is now guiding for a decline in operating margins to pay for the data center capex, increasing from 12% to 21% of revenue, Luria emphasized. This is a higher rate of increase than Amazon and Google due to Microsoft's greater reliance on Nvidia.
去年利潤率顯著擴張後，微軟現在指導下降運營利潤率，用於支付數據中心的資本支出，從收入的12%增加到21%，Luria強調。這比亞馬遜和谷歌的增長率更高，這是因爲微軟更依賴於Nvidia。
The analyst said that Microsoft overinvests at these rates yearly, diminishing margins by at least 100 bps cumulatively. To offset the margin drag, Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment.
分析師稱，微軟以這些速度年度過份投資，每年至少將利潤率減少100個點子。爲了抵消利潤率的拖累，微軟需要每年裁員約1萬名員工。
While Nvidia and others have pointed to a strong ROI for hyperscalers such as Azure, Luria flagged that these returns may only last for a while.
儘管Nvidia等公司已指出Azure等超大規模運算商的回報率強勁，但Luria指出，這些回報可能只會持續一段時間。
The analyst noted Azure's growth may be boosted by self-funded revenue, such as from OpenAI.
分析師指出，Azure的增長可能會受到自籌資金收入（例如來自OpenAI）的推動。
Luria noted Microsoft has also lost much of the lead for GitHub Copilot. Not only have Amazon and Gitlab mostly caught up to GitHub Copilot's capabilities, he said Cursor has become the new standard.
Luria指出，微軟也在GitHub Copilot領域大部分領先地位，已經喪失了。他說亞馬遜和Gitlab已基本趕上GitHub Copilot的功能，Cursor已成爲新的標準。
Luria projected fiscal first-quarter 2025 revenue of $64.2 billion and EPS of $2.96.
Luria預計2025年財政第一季度營業收入642億美元，每股收益2.96美元。
Price Action: MSFT stock is down 0.50% at $433.10 at last check Monday.
股價走勢：MSFt股票在上週一最後一次查詢時下跌0.50%，報433.10美元。
Photo via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。