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Is Coherent (NYSE:COHR) A Risky Investment?

Is Coherent (NYSE:COHR) A Risky Investment?

Coherent(紐交所:COHR)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  09/23 19:47

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

說得好,David Iben曾經說:「波動性並不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。」 當您評估一個公司的風險時,考慮其資產負債表是很自然的,因爲當企業倒閉時通常都涉及到債務。 重要的是,科歐公司(紐交所股票:COHR)的確有負債。 但真正的問題是這些債務是否使公司變得風險更高。

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當企業無法輕鬆地通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本來履行義務時,債務和其他負債會對企業產生風險。最終,如果企業無法履行償還債務的法定義務,則股東可能什麼都拿不到。雖然這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的企業由於債權人強制他們以處於困境的價格籌集資本而長期稀釋股東權益。當然,有很多公司使用債務來資助增長,沒有任何負面後果。在考慮公司的債務水平時,第一步是考慮現金和債務的綜合情況。

How Much Debt Does Coherent Carry?

Coherent承擔了多少債務?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Coherent had debt of US$4.10b at the end of June 2024, a reduction from US$4.31b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$926.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$3.17b.

下面的圖像顯示,Coherent於2024年6月底負債爲41億美元,較一年前減少了43.1億美元。 相反,它擁有9,2600萬美元現金,導致淨負債約爲317億美元。

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NYSE:COHR Debt to Equity History September 23rd 2024
紐交所股票COHR股權債務歷史記錄,2024年9月23日

How Healthy Is Coherent's Balance Sheet?

激光企業Coherent的資產負債表健康狀況如何?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Coherent had liabilities of US$1.34b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$5.20b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$926.0m in cash and US$848.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$4.77b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

深入研究最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,Coherent有134億美元的短期到期負債,以及超過520億美元的長期到期負債。相對應的,該公司有9,2600萬美元的現金和8,4850萬美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額超過現金和近期應收款項合計477億美元。

Coherent has a very large market capitalization of US$13.3b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

Coherent的市值非常龐大,達到133億美元,因此如果需要,很可能會籌集資金來改善其資產負債表。然而,仍然值得密切關注其償債能力。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

爲了衡量公司相對於其收益的債務情況,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆蓋率)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨負債與 EBITDA),又考慮到了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(其利息覆蓋率)。

While we wouldn't worry about Coherent's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.6, we think its super-low interest cover of 0.43 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, Coherent's EBIT was down 67% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Coherent can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

儘管我們不會擔心Coherent的淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率達到4.6,但我們認爲其超低利息覆蓋率爲0.43倍表明其高槓杆。在很大程度上,這是由於公司的大量折舊和攤銷費用,這可能意味着其EBITDA是一種非常慷慨的收益衡量標準,而其債務可能比表面看起來更爲沉重。顯然,借錢成本正在負面影響股東的回報。更糟糕的是,Coherent去年的EBIT下降了67%。如果收益長期保持這種走勢,它支付債務的可能性微乎其微。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多有關債務的信息。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定Coherent是否能夠隨時間加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看此免費報告,其中顯示了分析師的利潤預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Coherent produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 54% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,雖然稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,值得查看有多少EBIt是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,Coherent產生了穩健的自由現金流,相當於其EBIt的54%,這正是我們所期望的。這筆自由現金流使公司有能力在適當時償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, Coherent's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Coherent's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if Coherent insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.

從表面上看,Coherent的利息償付覆蓋率讓我們對股票持保留態度,其EBIt增長率並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚上唯一一家空蕩蕩的餐館引人注目。但至少它相當擅長將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流;這是令人鼓舞的。從更大的圖景來看,我們認爲Coherent的債務使用爲公司帶來風險。如果一切順利,這可能會取得成功,但這筆債務的下行是永久損失風險更大。考慮到我們對該股的猶豫,了解一下Coherent內部人員最近是否出售任何股份將是不錯的選擇。想了解內部人員最近是否出售股票,請單擊這裏。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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