此次回购为公司上市23 年以来首次注销式回购，回购股份资金总额为30-60 亿元，测算回购股份数量占股本总额不低于0.13-0.27%。公司重视股东回报，加强市值管理，中报后发布3 年分红回报规划，75%分红率假设下对应股息率超过4%，本次回购进一步提振市场信心，彰显公司发展动能。管理层履新以来，公司在组织、渠道、产品层面积极改革，上半年报表兑现稳健增长，全年15%的收入增长目标达成确定性较强。维持此前盈利预测，预计公司2024-2025 年营收1739.26/1961.24 亿元，同比+15.5%/+12.8%；预计归母净利润852.97/969.03 亿元，同比+14.0%/+13.7%，当前股价对应24-25 年估值18.6/16.4X，维持“优于大市”评级。Matters:
On September 20, the company issued the “Notice on the Plan to Repurchase the Company's Shares through Centralized Bidding Transactions” to implement cancellation repurchases on the premise that the normal operation and long-term development of the company are not affected to enhance investment confidence.
Guoxin Food and Drink Opinions:
This repurchase is the first cancellation repurchase since the company went public 23 years ago. The total capital for the repurchase of shares is 3-6 billion yuan. It is estimated that the number of shares repurchased accounts for no less than 0.13-0.27% of the total share capital. The company attaches importance to shareholder returns and strengthens market value management. After the interim report, it released a 3-year dividend return plan. Under the assumption of a 75% dividend rate, the corresponding dividend rate exceeds 4%. This repurchase further boosts market confidence and highlights the company's development momentum. Since the management took office, the company has actively reformed at the organizational, channel, and product levels. The first half of the year's statements have achieved steady growth, and there is strong certainty that the 15% revenue growth target for the whole year has been achieved. Maintaining the previous profit forecast, the company's 2024-2025 revenue is expected to be 173.926/196.124 billion yuan, +15.5%/+12.8%; the estimated net profit to mother is 85.297/96.903 billion yuan, +14.0%/+13.7% YoY. The current stock price corresponds to the 24-25 valuation 18.6/16.4X, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Commentary:
The first cancellation repurchase since listing. The total capital for the repurchase of shares is 3-6 billion yuan (inclusive). The repurchased share price is no more than 1795.78 yuan/share (inclusive). The funding source is the company's own capital, using centralized bidding. The repurchase of shares is used to cancel and reduce the company's registered capital. The repurchase period is within 12 months from the date of review and approval by the shareholders' meeting, and the company's controlling shareholders, actual controllers, directors, supervisors and senior management personnel as of the announcement date There are no plans to reduce the company's shares. Based on the repurchase amount and price cap, it is estimated that the number of shares to be repurchased will not be less than 1.6706-3.3412 million shares, accounting for no less than 0.13-0.27% of the total share capital.
The company values shareholder returns, and buybacks boost market confidence
The company attaches importance to shareholder returns and strengthens market value management. On August 8, the company announced a three-year cash dividend return plan. In 2024-2026, the company's annual cash dividend rate will not be less than 75%, and two dividends will be implemented every year at the middle and end of the year. We estimate that the dividend rate of 75% corresponds to the dividend rate of 4.1% for 2024, which highlights the value of dividend assets. The company's stock price has recently recovered a lot. This cancellation repurchase has slightly boosted the company's EPS, further safeguarded the interests of the group, joint stock companies and investors, and demonstrated confidence in the company's long-term development.
There are active reforms at the management level. The 15% revenue growth target for the whole year has been determined. Since the management took office, the company carried out reforms around “production is the first line, sales are the line of fire”, and the first half of the year's report achieved steady growth; consumer demand was weak in the second quarter, and pricing fluctuated rapidly. The company smoothed out price fluctuations through supply-side adjustments, and still has a strong brand voice over the channel. The current organizational personnel adjustments are nearing completion. It is expected that reform initiatives will continue to be implemented at the product (structure, pace of delivery) and channel (optimization of organizational structure, clarification of rights and responsibilities, manufacturer relationships). Overall, the company's 15% revenue growth target this year is expected to be achieved. In the long run, the value of the business model given by the company's brand power has not changed. The company is actively expanding new scenarios and new customer groups, cultivating new needs, and laying the foundation for high-quality future development.
Risk warning
Economic growth fell short of expectations, affecting demand for liquor consumption. Company prices are still under downward pressure; market competition is intensifying.
