India Supreme Court Ruling Weighs On Singtel: Maybank
India Supreme Court Ruling Weighs On Singtel: Maybank
Given these developments, the House maintain a positive outlook for Singtel, retaining their target price at SGD3.45 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The current share price stands at SGD3.38, suggesting a potential upside of 7%. The recommendation to BUY remains in place, indicating confidence in Singtel's resilience amidst the evolving market landscape.Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) continues to navigate challenges stemming from India's Supreme Court ruling, which dismissed curative petitions from Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel concerning the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dispute. The original demand under this case for Bharti, in which Singtel holds a 29% stake, amounted to INR630 billion (SGD9.75 billion), with Bharti having already settled INR180 billion. This ruling could lead to significant financial implications for the companies involved.
新電信（Singtel）繼續應對源自印度最高法院裁決的挑戰，該裁決駁回了沃達豐理念和巴帝艾特關於調整後總收入（AGR）爭議的療救請願書。巴帝在此案中的原始要求，新電信持有其29%的股份，達到了6300億盧比（975億新加坡元），巴帝已經解決了1800億盧比。這一裁決可能會對涉及公司產生重大的財務影響。
Maybank Stock Broking House predict that should Bharti Airtel opt to pay the remaining AGR dues in ten instalments, its earnings could see a reduction of 8-16% over the fiscal years 2025 to 2027. This translates to a per share negative impact on the net present value (NPV) of AGRs of approximately INR40, reflecting a decline of about 2% based on Bharti's current share price. In contrast, Vodafone Idea is expected to experience a more severe impact, with potential earnings dropping by as much as 67%. Given Vodafone Idea's high leverage, with a projected net debt to EBITDA ratio of 11 times for FY25, its viability as a third major player in the market is at risk. This situation raises the possibility of India consolidating down to just two private mobile operators unless there is a significant improvement in pricing for Vodafone Idea to sustain its operations. These outcomes could present more favourable conditions for Bharti.
馬來亞銀行證券經紀公司預測，如果巴帝艾特選擇分十期支付剩餘的AGR應交款，其收益在2025年至2027年財政年度可能會減少8-16%。這意味着對AGR淨現值（NPV）的每股負面影響約爲40億盧比，基於巴帝當前股價大約下降了2%。相比之下，預計沃達豐理念將會受到更嚴重的影響，其潛在收益可能會下降高達67%。鑑於沃達豐理念的高槓杆，預計2025財年淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤比率將達到11倍，其作爲市場第三大運營商的生存能力岌岌可危。這種情況提高了印度市場只剩下兩傢俬營移動運營商的可能性，除非沃達豐理念能夠在定價上有顯著改善以維持其運營。這些結果可能會爲巴帝帶來更有利的條件。
For Singtel, the financial impact appears manageable. Should Bharti face an 8-16% reduction in earnings, Singtel's core earnings for FY25-27 may decline by 4-6%. However, the effect on dividends is anticipated to be limited, as Bharti does not pay substantial dividends, thus leaving Singtel's cash flow largely unaffected. Moreover, while Singtel's dividends are linked to its earnings, the company has the flexibility to adjust its payout levels or enhance Variable Rate Debentures (VRD) dividends to offset the losses.
對新電信而言，財務影響似乎可以承受。倘若巴帝的收益減少8-16%，新電信在2025-2027財年的核心收益可能會下降4-6%。然而，預計對分紅的影響將會有限，因爲巴帝並不支付實質性的分紅，因此基本上不會對新電信的現金流造成太大影響。此外，雖然新電信的分紅與其收益掛鉤，但公司有靈活性來調整其支付水平或增加可變利率債券（VRD）的分紅以抵消損失。
Given these developments, the House maintain a positive outlook for Singtel, retaining their target price at SGD3.45 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The current share price stands at SGD3.38, suggesting a potential upside of 7%. The recommendation to BUY remains in place, indicating confidence in Singtel's resilience amidst the evolving market landscape.
鑑於這些情況，該機構對新電信保持積極的展望，根據分部加總（SOTP）估值，保持其目標價在3.45新加坡元。目前的股價爲3.38新加坡元，表明潛在上漲空間爲7%。維持買入建議，表明對新電信在不斷變化的市場格局中的信懇智能。
Source: Maybank
Title: Indian Supreme Court rejects telcos AGR recomputation plea
來源：馬來亞銀行
標題: 印度最高法院駁回電信公司AGR重新計算訴訟
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。