According to the Futu Securities app, on September 19th, the China Passenger Car Association stated that from September 1st to 15th, the passenger vehicle market retail sales were 0.828 million vehicles, an 18% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year have reached 14.293 million vehicles, a 3% increase year-on-year. From September 1st to 15th, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers' wholesale volume was 0.868 million vehicles, a 9% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 45% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year has reached 16.808 million vehicles, a 4% increase year-on-year.

From September 1st to 15th, the new energy passenger vehicle market retail sales were 0.445 million vehicles, a 63% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year have reached 6.454 million vehicles, a 37% increase year-on-year. From September 1st to 15th, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers' new energy wholesale volume was 0.441 million vehicles, a 49% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 29% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year has reached 7.12 million vehicles, a 32% increase year-on-year.

During the first week of September, the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles were 0.048 million vehicles, a 10% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 5% increase compared to the previous month.

During the second week of September, the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles were 0.063 million vehicles, a 26% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and an 18% increase compared to the previous month.

From September 1st to 15th, the passenger vehicle market retail sales were 0.828 million vehicles, an 18% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year have reached 14.293 million vehicles, a 3% increase year-on-year.

As the real estate industry continues to decline, the scale of residents' investment in real estate continues to decrease, and the problem of consumer consumption being squeezed by investment is gradually alleviated, with more funds being used for savings and consumption. In the collision between the trend of cash is king and instant enjoyment, the automotive consumption has relatively stronger consumption capacity guarantee; the influx of cost-effective models brought about by technological upgrades into the Chinese automotive market, coupled with the implementation of consumption promotion policies, the demand of the previous group of car buyers will be effectively released from "whether or not" to "how good", promoting the good growth of consumption upgrade.

On September 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, formally ushering in a world interest rate cut cycle, which is a good positive factor for the recovery of global economic vitality and for automotive consumption.

Recently, the continuous decline of the national real estate market has prompted a downturn in the housing market, which in turn promotes automotive consumption. In September, various provinces successively released replacement policies, greatly alleviating consumers' wait-and-see sentiment under price wars and effectively promoting new car consumption. The incremental potential of new energy products is higher than expected, especially the demand for higher-quality entry-level models in the same price range, which has been effectively stimulated. It is expected that the initial effects of local subsidy policies will be good, which will bring better promotion to the sales volume of "Golden September and Silver October".

In the first week of September, the average daily wholesale of passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 0.046 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1% compared to September of last year, and a month-on-month increase of 41% compared to the same period last month.

In the second week of September, the average daily wholesale of passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 0.071 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17% compared to September of last year, and a month-on-month increase of 49% compared to the same period last month.

From September 1 to 15, the nationwide wholesale of passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 0.868 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 9% compared to September of last year, and a month-on-month increase of 45% compared to the same period last month. Cumulatively, a total of 16.808 million vehicles have been wholesaled since the beginning of this year, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

September has a total of 21 working days, one day more than last year. Since the Mid-Autumn Festival falls on September 17th this year, there is no early holiday at the end of September. Therefore, September has a longer effective sales time. "Golden September and Silver October" is a great time for the automotive market, and the effects of "Golden September" will be more prominent this year, which is conducive to the increase in sales volume.

The country has introduced a scrappage policy and further undertakes about 90% of the scrappage subsidy fund, which is a very good demonstration effect to promote consumption, guiding various regions to promote corresponding old-for-new encouragement policies and timely issue implementation details.

The internal market forecast team's pre-forecast for the passenger vehicle market in August was 63% optimism, and the post-evaluation in early September was 67% satisfaction. We are currently optimistic about the September market, reaching 93%, the highest market optimism in the near term. The manufacturer's sales volume in August was much lower than retail, resulting in a significant destocking feature, so there is a reasonable demand for inventory in September, which strongly promotes market growth.

In August 2024, auto production decreased by 2%, consumption decreased by 7%, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in August was 44%, with 1.11 million units.

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August amounted to 3.8726 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, automotive consumer spending was 394.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, while retail sales of other consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 3.4783 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31.2452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Automotive consumer spending amounted to 3.068 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%, while retail sales of other consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 28.1772 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%.

In 2024, the demand for auto production is expected to grow steadily, with continued improvement in consumer expectations and solid progress in high-quality development, leading to the automotive industry continuing its recovery and upward trend. The relationship between the sales of automobiles and real estate in 2023 was 37 square meters of property to 1 car, which is expected to decrease to 32 square meters of property to 1 car in 2024, showing a slight improvement in the ratio between property and car sales compared to the high of 70 square meters per car in 2020. Due to debt pressure, the demand for cars is relatively sluggish, as the only consumer item not yet widely popularized in Chinese urban and rural households. In recent years, the overall trend of the national passenger vehicle market has been warming up, and passenger vehicle consumption has gradually improved.

With the decline in the low base impact of the 2024 Spring Festival, production demand continues to recover, and employment and prices remain basically stable. However, there is still significant pressure on auto consumption growth. Therefore, promoting auto consumption, implementing vehicle scrappage subsidy and old-for-new policies, is of great significance. Particularly, the double subsidy for scrappage and renewal has a very good market promoting effect. The market expects that the impact of the scrappage and renewal policy on car owners must be significant before the policy is issued, driving large sales volumes. Looking forward to the future, more improvement measures such as electric vehicles going to rural areas, tax exemptions for personnel purchasing cars below 200 kilometers of range, vehicle purchase tax exemptions for compliant pure electric cars, and encouragement of car purchases for marriage are expected to stimulate car purchases and promote economic growth.

Analysis of the national charging pile market in August 2024.

According to the data analysis of the China Charging Alliance compiled by the China Passenger Car Association, the total number of public charging stations in August 2024 reached 3.26 million, an increase of 0.0536 million from the previous month, which was slower than the year-on-year growth of 12% during the same period last year. The cumulative increase in public charging stations in 2024 reached 0.54 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13% compared to the same period last year. Currently, there are 7.74 million private charging stations, with an increase of 0.342 million in August compared to the previous month, and a faster growth rate of 56% compared to August 2023. The cumulative increase in private charging stations in 2024 reached 1.87 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22% compared to the same period last year. The charging volume of public charging stations reached 5.3 billion kilowatt-hours, showing good growth compared to the same period, with an average monthly charging of 1,624 kilowatt-hours per station, a good increase compared to 1,435 kilowatt-hours in August last year.

In recent years, China's charging infrastructure has developed rapidly and has become the world's largest, most widely-serviced, and most comprehensive charging infrastructure system in terms of the variety and types of chargers. Currently, according to the calculation of 1 public charging pile equals 3 private ones, China's ratio of electric vehicle chargers in 2024 market is already 1:1, far exceeding that of other countries in the world.

Currently, there are still problems that need to be addressed to improve the charging infrastructure. These include the issue of inadequate layout, unreasonable structure, outdated charging infrastructure technology, uneven service distribution, and lack of regulation. In some low-tier cities, the rate of electric vehicle purchase regret has increased. However, with the continuous increase in scale and the small adjustment difficulty, the potential for improvement of electric vehicles is huge.

The moderate development of charging piles has resulted in low utilization rates and an overall negative operating profit for charging facility operations. Currently, the ratio of the incremental pure electric passenger cars to public charging piles is 1.5:1. If one public charging pile serves at least three cars, then the ratio of the pure electric passenger car charging system is basically 1:1, which is relatively good.

From the perspective of charging operators, the performance of leading operators is relatively strong. GAC New Energy's average monthly charging reached around 6,384 kilowatt-hours in August, performing well every month. NIO's charging stations reached a charging volume of around 10,196 kilowatt-hours. However, some older charging stations only have an average monthly charging of just over 100 kilowatt-hours, while the average monthly charging of block orders charging operators is at the kilowatt-hour level, resulting in a huge difference in efficiency by several times or tens of times. Tesla's data remains stable and very good.

5. Analysis of the pickup truck market in August 2024

In August 2024, the pickup truck market sold 0.039 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2%, reaching a relatively low level in the past 5 years. The sales of pickup trucks from January to August this year reached 0.34 million vehicles, achieving a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, showing overall positive performance.

The effect of allowing pickup trucks into cities is far less effective than the effect of pickup trucks going to rural areas. Allowing pickup trucks into cities is indeed a misnomer. The pickup truck markets in the northwest, southwest, central, and northeast regions have continued to strengthen this year. As the government's support for consumption increases and unreasonable restrictions on consumption are gradually lifted, the demand for pickup trucks in cities with purchase restrictions and driving restrictions has been weak. As for exports, due to the insufficient production capacity of international car companies and the large supply-demand contradiction, the overseas market demand for Chinese pickup trucks has been growing rapidly, driving the continuous increase in China's pickup truck exports since 2022. From January to August 2024, the exports showed a strong year-on-year growth trend, with outstanding performance from companies such as Great Wall Motor, SAIC Motor, and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group.

In August, the production of pickup trucks was 0.038 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. The export volume of pickups in August was 0.019 million units, accounting for about 50% of the total sales, the highest proportion among various commercial vehicle types. Due to the downturn in the domestic real estate market, China's pickup truck production and sales have remained relatively stable in the past two years, relying on export contributions. The performance of the domestic pickup truck market, especially the increase in sales proportion in rural and small-town markets, has effectively offset the decline in pickup truck sales in domestic cities compared to last year. With the slowdown in export growth and the relatively weak year-on-year growth in domestic sales of pickups in August, especially the limited impact of policies promoting the exchange of old pickups for new ones, there will also be a certain degree of wait-and-see attitude.