On September 19, Cailian Press (Editor: Feng Yi) reported that although the US Federal Reserve officially implemented a rate cut in September, the Hong Kong stock commodity concept did not see the expected rise today, and petroleum stocks were particularly weak.

As of press time, Unitedenergy GP (00467.HK) fell more than 4%, China Energy (00228.HK) fell more than 1%, Sinopec (00386.HK) and PetroChina (00857.HK) followed suit with declines.

On the news front, although the Federal Reserve chose to significantly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, it also downgraded growth expectations for several economic indicators, which triggered a return of recession trading in overseas markets.

The statement shows that the Federal Reserve has lowered its expectations for GDP growth and core inflation for the year, and has also raised its expectations for the unemployment rate. The forecast for 2024 has been lowered from 2.1% to 2.0%. The inflation expectations for PCE and core PCE for the year have also been lowered by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively. The unemployment rate expectation has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points.

In fact, the market had previously linked the magnitude of the interest rate cut to the risk of recession, believing that the higher the risk of recession, the larger the interest rate cut. The 50 basis point rate cut in this case, combined with the Federal Reserve's downward revision of its economic forecast for the year, seems to confirm the recession risk.

It is worth noting that the US Department of Energy has stated that it will seek to purchase up to 6 million barrels of oil to replenish strategic petroleum reserves. However, this bullish news has not had a significant impact on oil prices.

However, Citigroup expects a seasonal deficit of about 0.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of the crude oil market, which may provide temporary support for oil prices. At the same time, China's oil demand in the fourth quarter may rebound by 0.3 million barrels per day, which will boost global demand and offset this year's weakness.

However, Citibank also specifically pointed out that with the global oil supply and demand balance deteriorating in most scenarios by 2025, it is still expected that there will be new price weakness in 2025, and Brent crude oil prices will move towards $60 per barrel.

Overall, although the rate cut is expected to boost the csi commodity equity index from a short-term liquidity and expectation perspective, the market is still more concerned about the actual demand of the economic fundamentals in the medium to long term.

Li Yunxu, an energy analyst at Guotou Anxin Futures, also pointed out in a recent report that the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products has increased this year. And the data shows that US oil products have not effectively reduced inventory since the third quarter.

Looking ahead, Guotou Anxin Futures believes that after the peak season of seasonal demand, oil product inventories in the fourth quarter are still expected to rise compared to the same period last year, and the supportive effect of low inventories on oil prices will gradually weaken.