美联储首次降息前后,黄金胜率较大! 美联储5轮降息周期内,黄金价格4次上涨(1995年、2000年、2007年和2019年), 2007年首次降息3个月后,黄金价格涨幅达27.2%。 From the historical interest rate cuts, the US dollar is under short-term pressure after a rate cut, and the medium to long-term trend is influenced by the relative strength of the US economy and global risk aversion, making it difficult to predict. The RMB exchange rate is relatively independent, with a greater chance of gold winning.
After the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, what will happen to the US dollar? Based on previous rate cut cycles, the US dollar tends to be under short-term pressure after a rate cut, and its long-term trend is influenced by the relative strength of the US economy and global risk sentiment. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the trend within three months after a rate cut, but overall, there will be ups and downs. In 1995 and 2002, due to the safe-haven sentiment driven by the recovery of the US economy, the Asian financial crisis, and the bursting of the internet bubble, the US dollar maintained a strong cycle for 7 years, during which the Federal Reserve implemented 3 rate cuts but did not reverse the strong performance of the US dollar.
Before and after the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the trend of the Renminbi exchange rate is relatively independent. It is influenced by factors such as international trade, relative strength of the economy, and domestic monetary policy. During the previous rate cut cycles by the Federal Reserve, the trends of non-dollar exchange rates such as the Japanese Yen, Renminbi, and Euro remained relatively independent.
Before and after the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold has a higher probability of winning! During the 5 rate cut cycles by the Federal Reserve, the price of gold rose 4 times (in 1995, 2000, 2007, and 2019). After the first rate cut in 2007, the price of gold increased by 27.2% within 3 months.
