該行補充，料截至明年2月底止2025財年，對滔搏(06110.HK)將是困難一年，其線下銷售料遠遜原先預期。據該行最新估算，其2025財年純利料按年跌37%，2月底止下半財年將更具挑戰。其未來盈利復甦料取決於耐克韌性，以及其調整業務焦點的速度，如加快其他品牌門店開張。考慮滔搏盈利可見度低，評級由「買入」降至「持有」，目標價由7.5元削至2.5元。Bank of China International released a report stating that since Nike (NKE.US) lowered its profit guidance in June, it believes that Nike's problems are more severe than expected. On the one hand, it is believed that the brand's demand in the West and China will face challenges, which will require one to two years of readjustment. On the other hand, this will bring uncertainty to the company's suppliers' orders.
The bank expects downstream problems to be more severe, especially in China. At the same time, considering the resilience of upstream leaders in adjusting orders, a positive view is maintained on these companies. Therefore, confidence in the profitability of Shenzhou International (02313.HK) is maintained.
In terms of the downstream, the bank expects Anta (02020.HK) to be an indirect beneficiary of Nike's predicament, but considering the challenging retail environment in China, caution is advised in the short term on this stock.
The bank added that it is expected to be a challenging year for Topsports (06110.HK) until the end of February 2025, and its offline sales are expected to be far below the original expectations. According to the bank's latest estimate, its net profit for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to decline by 37% annually, and the second half of the fiscal year ending in February will be even more challenging. Its future profit recovery will depend on Nike's resilience and the speed of adjusting its business focus, such as accelerating the opening of stores for other brands. Considering the low visibility of Topsports' profitability, the rating has been downgraded from "buy" to "hold", and the target price has been reduced from 7.5 yuan to 2.5 yuan.
The bank's ratings and target prices for mainland sportswear stocks are as follows:
Stocks | Rating | Target price (HKD)
Anta (02020.HK) | Buy | 94.8 yuan
Li Ning (02331.HK) | Hold | 13.1 yuan
Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313.HK) | Buy | $93
Topsports (06110.HK) | Buy -> Hold | $7.5 -> $2.5
Li Ning (01368.HK) | Buy | $6.2