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监管催化剂撞上美联储降息周期,比特币新一轮牛市已开启?

As regulatory catalysts collide with the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting cycle, has a new bull market for bitcoin begun?

Zhitong Finance ·  15:45

SkyBridge Capital founder predicts that US regulatory rules will be more crypto-friendly, and he also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 150 basis points over the next 18 months.

According to the Futu Finance app, Anthony Scaramucci, a well-known hedge fund manager on Wall Street, recently predicted that after the November US presidential election, due to the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the gradually clear regulatory rules on cryptos by the US government, the bitcoin trading price may reach a stunning historical high of $1 million before the end of this year.

"After the election, we will gain support for cryptocurrency, bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next term of the US Congress." The founder of SkyBridge Capital predicted in an interview with the media on Wednesday. "At the same time, crypto regulations intersect with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle."

Scaramucci said that he personally prefers bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation that supports the development of cryptos, which is supported by both the Republican and Democratic parties. It is understood that as early as 2017, he served as the communications industry director for former US President Donald Trump for only 11 days, and then was fired and became a outspoken critic of the US government.

Republican candidate Trump, in the tense competition with Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House, has shifted to strongly supporting cryptos in order to seek donations and votes, while Harris' public stance on crypto assets such as bitcoin is less clear.

However, Scaramucci is very optimistic about the trend of the US government under Harris' leadership in formulating rules that are favorable to the development of cryptos, and he cited her potential support discussion with the Democratic team in promoting the presidential election. Last month, an advisor to Harris' campaign team said that Harris would support measures to help develop the crypto field while maintaining appropriate safeguards.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, whether it will be a 25 basis points cut or the expectation of a 50 basis points cut that has recently gained momentum in the market, Scaramucci stated that he expects the Fed to reduce borrowing costs by 50 basis points on Wednesday local time, and he believes this will be an important part of the Fed's interest rate cut of at least 150 basis points over the next 18 months.

"This will be very beneficial for asset prices in the United States and globally," he added. Regarding the future market trend of Bitcoin, he predicts that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark by the end of this year. He made these remarks during a conference in Singapore.

Driven by the booming demand for Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) on US exchanges, the world's largest digital asset Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,798 in March. As the inflow of funds into ETFs cools down, the upward momentum has slowed. Prior to the Fed's policy decision, the cryptocurrency has risen by about 5% in the past two days, with a trading price of $60,399 at the time of writing.

Cryptocurrencies have become a very important topic in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Republican candidate Donald Trump calling for the United States to become a "world bitcoin superpower," a slogan that supports cryptocurrencies and could attract many crypto enthusiasts and leaders of crypto institutions to vote for Trump. His running mate, Republican Senator JD Vance of Ohio, also supports cryptocurrencies, and their campaign has been accepting cryptocurrency donations.

Of particular note is that following the support and appreciation for the cryptocurrency industry expressed by numerous Republican lawmakers led by Trump, the Democrats seem to be expressing their recognition of cryptocurrencies as well. It is understood that Chuck Schumer, the Majority Leader of the Senate and a Democratic senator, recently stated that the adoption of cryptocurrency regulatory guidelines based on a bipartisan resolution is "absolutely possible" this year. While Harris has not officially shared her views on the cryptocurrency industry, the voices of support from high-ranking Democratic officials indicate that she may change the Biden administration's tough stance on cryptocurrencies.

Standard Chartered Bank recently reiterated its prediction that regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach new historical highs by the end of 2024. The bank's Head of Digital Assets also predicted that in the event of Trump's election as US president, the price of Bitcoin could reach $0.125 million.

Dan Tapiero, a well-known fund manager from 1RoundTable Partners, has also expressed a strong bullish sentiment for the future trend of Bitcoin. He predicts, "In the next six months, I believe the price of Bitcoin will exceed $1 million, and the price of Ethereum may also exceed $5,000. I believe a major bull market for cryptocurrencies is coming."

Editor/rice

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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