As Fed Gears Up For Cuts, One Hedge Funder Is Focused On A Bigger Catalyst: Japan's Central Bank
As Fed Gears Up For Cuts, One Hedge Funder Is Focused On A Bigger Catalyst: Japan's Central Bank
Whether the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point reduction or a 50-basis-point cut, is top of mind ahead of Wednesday's meeting.
關於聯儲局將採取25個點子的減息還是50個點子的減息，在本週三的會議之前成爲關注重點。
But there's an "even bigger question" to answer, Thomas Hayes of Great Hill Capital tells Benzinga.
但是大山資本的Thomas Hayes告訴財經新聞網，還有一個「更大的問題」需要回答。
What will Japan's central bank decide at its meeting on Friday? Recall how Japan's rate hikes created volatility, particularly in tech stocks.
日本央行週五的會議上將做出什麼決定？回想一下日本的加息曾經引發過市場波動，尤其是科技股。
"Fed should have cut [rates] in August," Hayes says. Instead, Japan's central bank hiked and the Fed didn't. As a result, "it created a liquidity mismatch that caused an abrupt selloff" in the Magnificent Seven stocks.
「聯儲局本應該在8月份削減利率，」Hayes說。相反，日本央行升息了，而聯儲局沒有。結果，「這導致了一個流動性不匹配，引發了科技七巨頭的突然拋售。」
If the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets Friday and hikes again while the Fed only cuts 25 basis points, more turbulence could arise, Hayes predicts.
Things should be alright if the Fed cuts 50 basis points and the BoJ hikes 25 basis points, he says. Likewise, if the BoJ keeps rates unchanged and the Fed cuts 25 basis points.
The Fed's Decision: Of the last three 50 basis-point cuts, March 2020 "worked great," Hayes recalls. The cuts from September 2007 and January 2001 each has a "bad outcome."
Hayes預測，如果日本央行週五再次加息，而聯儲局僅減息25個點子，可能會出現更多的動盪。
他說，如果聯儲局削減50個點子，而日本央行加息25個點子，情況應該會好轉。同樣，如果日本央行保持利率不變，而聯儲局削減25個點子。
Hayes回憶道，在過去的三次50個點子的減息中，2020年3月的效果「非常好」。2007年9月和2001年1月的減息則造成了「不好的結果」。
Fed Fund Futures suggest a 65% chance of a 50 basis-points cut, though Hayes isn't sure.
根據聯邦基金期貨的數據顯示，有65%的概率會有50個點子的減息，儘管Hayes並不確定。
A cut that size could suggest the Fed is falling behind. It might also give the appearance of political motivation, which the Fed will most likely try to avoid. With the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) at 5.33%, more than 230 basis points above inflation, Hayes believes monetary policy is already too restrictive.
這麼大幅度的減息可能意味着聯儲局正在落後。這也可能給人一種政治動機的表象，而聯儲局很可能會試圖避免。由於有效聯邦基金利率（EFFR）高達5.33%，比通脹高了230個點子以上，海耶斯認爲貨幣政策已經過於緊縮。
Hayes expects the Fed will go with a 25 basis points cut paired with dovish commentary, suggesting further cuts in November and December. While the market is pricing in 100-125 basis points of cuts by year-end, Hayes is in the 75-100 basis points of reductions camp.
海耶斯預計聯儲局將進行25個點子的減息，並配以溫和的評論，暗示11月和12月可能進一步減息。儘管市場預計年底會有100-125個點子的減息，但海耶斯認爲減息幅度會在75-100個點子之間。
Hayes also points to stronger-than-expected growth, with Q3 GDPNow estimates at 2.5% and 15% earnings per share (EPS) growth forecast for 2024.
"Hard to have a recession with GDP growing over 2%," Hayes said.
海耶斯還指出，經濟增長超出預期，第三季度GDPNow估計爲2.5%，預計2024年每股收益（EPS）將增長15%。
海耶斯說，「經濟增長超過2%，很難出現衰退。」
Hayes is not repositioning ahead of the rate cuts. However, other major funds made significant moves in the second quarter ahead of the rate-cut cycle.
According to HedgeFollow:
海耶斯在減息週期開始之前並沒有調整倉位。然而，在減息週期開始之前，其他大型基金進行了重大調整。
根據HedgeFollow：
- Berkshire Hathaway sold more Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares
- State Street bought Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares
- Coatue picked up Nvidia and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL)
- Two Sigma bought CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) shares.
- Berkshire Hathaway出售了更多蘋果股份（納斯達克：AAPL）
- 道富銀行購買了Nvidia股份（納斯達克：NVDA）
- Coatue收購了Nvidia和戴爾科技（紐交所：DELL）的股票。
- Two Sigma購買了CME集團股份（納斯達克：cme）。
Now Read: S&P 500 Briefly Hits Record High Just Ahead Of Fed Rate Cut, Extends 7-Day Winning Streak
現在閱讀：標普500指數在聯儲局減息之前短暫創下新高，延續了爲期7天的獲勝紀錄。
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。