HAIER SMART HOME(6690.HK):TAKEAWAY FROM THE POST RESULT NDR
HAIER SMART HOME(6690.HK):TAKEAWAY FROM THE POST RESULT NDR
The slowdown in sales growth in 2Q24 was a small surprise, but the margin improvement was impressive, in our view. We are confident about the Company as the outlook in 2H24E is decent in both China and overseas, supported by factors like government subsides, potential interest rate cut, new product launches and turnaround in margins in the EU, etc.. Maintain BUY and fine tune TP to HK$ 31.58, based on 14x FY24E P/E. Current valuation of 11x FY24E P/E and 4% yield is not demanding vs 5-year average of 15x.
2Q24銷售增長放緩讓人小吃一驚，但利潤改善令人印象深刻，我們對公司的前景充滿信心。在支持下，中國和境外的2H24E前景都不錯，包括政府補貼、潛在的減息、新產品推出以及歐盟利潤回升等因素。維持買入評級，並根據14倍FY24E市盈率將目標價細調至HK$31.58。當前估值爲11倍FY24E市盈率和4%的股息收益率，相對於過去5年的平均水平不算過高。
The boost of the "old for new" trade in subsidies has already kicked
"以舊換新"的貿易補貼已經開始實施。在我們看來，最近推出的家電補貼對於高端產品和行業領先品牌（例如海爾等）應該更有優勢。例如，在2024年8月10日至27日期間，湖北省家電的同比銷售增長率高達30%。而且更多的高端產品，如售價超過8000元的冰箱/洗衣機和售價超過4000元的空調，都非常暢銷，一些卡薩特品牌的銷量同比增長超過100%。值得注意的是，海爾還爲一些關鍵的卡薩特品牌的SKU提供了額外的補貼（由品牌資助），以刺激客戶的更多高端需求。我們還相信像海爾這樣的市場領導者更能受益（相對於規模較小的品牌），因爲有31個（共有33個）地方銷售公司已經與地方政府就這些潛在的補貼計劃進行了談判，全國範圍內有2100個（共有2300個）經銷商也將有資格參與其中（約佔總數的91%，這在同行中可能是最高的之一）。根據公司的估計，預計將在2H24E（9月將在更多省份展開）分配約300億元人民幣的補貼，並估計其乘數效應約爲5倍。
in since Aug 2024. In our view, the subsidies for home appliance imposed lately should be more favorable for high-end products and industry-leading brands (e.g. Haier and others). For example, in Hubei province during 10- 27 Aug 2024, the YoY sales growth of home appliances was as high as 30%. And more high-end products, such as fridge/ washing machine priced at RMB 8,000+ and air-conditioner priced at RMB 4,000+ were rather hot selling, some Casarte has recorded 100%+ YoY growth. Noted that Haier has also provided extra subsidies (financed by the brand) for a number of key SKUs of Casarte brand, in order to stimulate more high-end demand from customers. We also believe market leaders like Haier can be more benefited (vs smaller brands), as 31 (out of all 33) local sales companies are already in talk with the local government about these potential subsidies programs, and 2,100 (out of 2,300) distributors across China will be entitled as well (about 91% of total, and this could be one of the highest among its peers). Based on the Company's estimates, around RMB 30bn of subsidies will be distributed in 2H24E (will roll out in a few more provinces in Sep 2024) and the multiplier effect was estimated to be at around 5x.
FY24E指引未變。對於FY24E，海爾仍然在中國市場（卡薩特品牌仍有10%+的增長）和海外市場（美國將實現正增長，非美國海外市場將實現10%+的增長）中力爭中單位數銷售增長。在產品類別方面，公司的目標是冰箱/洗衣機/熱水器實現正增長，空調/廚房電器實現10%+的增長。
No change in FY24E guidance. For FY24E, Haier is still targeting MSD sales growth in China (Casarte brands could still deliver a 10%+ growth) and in overseas (US to have positive growth and ex-US overseas can have 10%+ growth). And in terms of categories, the Company is aiming for positive growth for fridge/ washing machines/ water heater and 10%+ growth for air-conditioner/ kitchen appliance.
未變的FY24E指引。對於FY24E，海爾仍然在中國市場（卡薩特品牌仍有10%+的增長）和海外市場（美國將實現正增長，非美國海外市場將實現10%+的增長）中力爭中單位數銷售增長。在產品類別方面，公司的目標是冰箱/洗衣機/熱水器實現正增長，空調/廚房電器實現10%+的增長。
Maintain BUY and fine tune TP to HK$ 31.58. We fine-tuned FY24E/ 25E/
維持買入評級，將目標價調整爲31.58港元。我們調整了FY24E/25E/26E的淨利潤預測，分別爲+1%、-1%、-1%，以考慮到銷售增長較預期放緩，但中國和歐盟的運營槓桿和效益增長超出預期。我們的新目標價仍基於14倍FY24E市盈率（不變）。股價爲FY24E市盈率的11倍，仍遠低於其過去5年的平均水平15倍。
26E net profit forecasts by +1%/ -1%/ -1%, in order to factor in slower-than- expected sales growth but better-than-expected operating leverage and efficiency gains in both China and the EU. Our new TP is still based on 14x FY24E P/E (unchanged). It is trading at 11x FY24E P/E, still far below its 5- year average of 15x.
我們維持買入評級，將目標價調整爲31.58港元。我們調整了FY24E/25E/ 26E 的淨利潤預測，因爲銷售增長低於預期，但在中國和歐盟的運營槓桿和效益增長超出預期。我們的新目標價仍然基於14倍FY24E市盈率（不變）。它的市盈率爲FY24E的11倍，仍遠低於過去5年平均水平15倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。