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Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 14 21:47

Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) has had a rough three months with its share price down 6.6%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Southern Copper's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Southern Copper is:

32% = US$2.8b ÷ US$8.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.32 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Southern Copper's Earnings Growth And 32% ROE

To begin with, Southern Copper has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 9.8% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Probably as a result of this, Southern Copper was able to see a decent net income growth of 14% over the last five years.

As a next step, we compared Southern Copper's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 24% in the same period.

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NYSE:SCCO Past Earnings Growth September 14th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for SCCO? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Southern Copper Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

While Southern Copper has a three-year median payout ratio of 94% (which means it retains 6.1% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn't hampered its ability to grow.

Besides, Southern Copper has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 73% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 42%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Southern Copper has some positive attributes. Its earnings have grown respectably as we saw earlier, probably due to its high returns. However, it does reinvest little to almost none of its profits, so we wonder what effect this could have on its future growth prospects. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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