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Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High, Inflation Expectations Ease: 'Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Inched Up'

Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High, Inflation Expectations Ease: 'Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Inched Up'

消費者信心達到四個月來的最高水平，通脹預期有所緩解：「民意情緒中的黨派差距有所增加」
Benzinga ·  00:00

The average American consumer is more optimistic than expected in September, data shows.

數據顯示，美國消費者的平均消費者信心比預期更樂觀。

According to the University of Michigan's September Survey of Consumers, the consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in four months, surpassing economic estimates.

根據密歇根大學對消費者的九月份調查，消費者信心指數升至四個月來的最高水平，超過了經濟預期。

This surge reflects improvements in both current conditions and future expectations, driven by lower inflation worries and more favorable price conditions.

這一增長反映出當前狀況和未來預期的改善，受到通脹憂慮減少和價格條件更加有利的推動。

See Also: Latest Poll Hands Vice President Harris 5-Point Lead Over Trump

另請參閱: 最新民意調查顯示，副總統賀錦麗領先特朗普5個百分點。

Key Highlights:

亮點： 1.肺炎的全球發病率估計在每1000人年之間變化1.5至14例之間。 2.肺炎的患病率最高爲小兒人群（6.8%），其次爲老年人群（3.75%），在非大都市城市（人口在100萬以下）中最顯著。 3.美國的肺炎年發病率爲每10000名成年人24.8例。 4.在需要住院的重症肺炎患者中，報告的死亡率爲4%至37%，並隨着年齡的增長而上升。 5.肺炎是全球兒童死亡的最常見感染性死因。根據世衛組織的數據，該疾病造成5歲以下兒童死亡總數的14%。

  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 67.9 August to 69 points in September, marking a 1.6% monthly surge and surpassing economist estimates – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of 68.
  • The sub-index for consumer expectations increased from 72.1 to 73 points, topping expectations of a decline to 71.
  • The sub-index for current conditions rose from 61.3 to 62.9, surpassing estimates of 61.5.
  • The year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.8% to 2.7%, the lowest in nearly four years, below forecasts of 2.8%. Long-term inflation expectations inched slightly higher from 3% to 3.1%.
  • 密歇根大學消費者信心指數從8月的67.9上升到9月的69點，月度增長1.6%，超過了經濟學家的預期 - 根據TradingEconomics數據 - 預期爲68。
  • 消費者預期的子指數從72.1上升到73點，超過了下降至71的預期。
  • 當前狀況的子指數從61.3上升到62.9，超過了61.5的預期。
  • 年度通脹預期從2.8%下降到2.7%，接近四年來的最低水平，低於2.8%的預測。長期通脹預期從3%微微上升到3.1%。

Economist Takeaways

經濟學家的觀點

"The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets," said University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

密歇根大學消費者調查的負責人Joanne Hsu表示：「購買耐用品的條件改善，消費者認爲價格更有利。個人財務和經濟的年度預期也有所改善，儘管對勞動力市場的看法有所削弱。」

Consumer sentiment is now roughly 40% higher than its June 2022 low, though caution remains widespread due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election, according to the expert.

根據專家的觀點，儘管對即將到來的選舉存在不確定性，但消費者情緒目前大約比2022年6月的低點高出40％，但謹慎情緒仍然普遍存在。

However, there is contrasting sentiment between Democratic and Republican consumers as Election Day approaches and Vice President Kamala Harris widens the lead over Ex-President Donald Trump in preliminary polls.

然而，在選舉日臨近和副總統卡馬拉·賀錦麗在初步調查中拉大優勢的情況下，民主黨和共和黨選民之間存在對立的情緒。

Hsu highlighted that "partisan gaps in sentiment inched up," amid consumers' opposing views on the economic impact of her potential presidency.

Hsu指出，「黨派間的情緒差距有所擴大」，消費者對她潛在總統任期的經濟影響持有相反的觀點。

Market Reactions

市場反應

Stocks extended their gains following the sentiment report. By 10:15 a.m. in New York, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.4%, while the tech-focused Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) edged 0.2% higher.

情緒報告公佈後，股市進一步上漲。截至紐約時間上午10:15，SPDR標普500指數ETF信託基金（NYSE:SPY）上漲了0.4%，而以科技爲重點的Invesco QQQ信託基金第一系列（NASDAQ:QQQ）上漲了0.2%。

Small caps led the rally, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) surging 2%. Blue chips, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), rose 0.5%.

小盤股領漲，納斯達克的ishares羅素2000指數etf(etf:iwm)上漲2%。藍籌股，由道瓊斯工業指數etf(dia)跟蹤，上漲0.5%。

All 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) leading the way, up 1%, supported by strength in precious metals.

所有11個標準普爾500指數行業板塊均錄得漲幅，材料選擇行業spdr基金(xlb)表現最佳，上漲1%，受到貴金屬表現強勁的支撐。

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) slipping 0.4%. The dollar also dropped 0.9% against the Japanese yen, hitting levels last seen in late December 2023.

與此同時，美元走勢疲弱，景順db看好美元指數基金etf(uup)下跌0.4%。美元兌日元也下跌0.9%，跌至上次見於2023年12月底的水平。

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