According to the Futubull app, Guosen Securities released research reports stating that current overall consumption is still in a gradual recovery trend. The mid-year industry fundamentals are relatively flat, short-term recommendations focus on finding structural investment opportunities, complemented by policy themes to capture relatively returns, while in the medium to long term, continue to lay out along the lines of the clear prospects of national brands rising and expanding overseas.

Specifically: 1) Beauty and skincare: After full adjustment, the attractiveness of some symbols is gradually emerging, and leading domestic products have shown strong growth resilience in the first half of the year with strong product capabilities and omnichannel layout. Recommended Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (603983.SH) and others;

2) Cross-border expansion: Overseas consumption demand remains relatively high, despite short-term instability factors such as changes in the international trade environment. However, leading enterprises, through refined operational layouts, are expected to gain higher market share in the industry consolidation. Recommended: Zhejiang China Commodities City Group (600415.SH) and others;

3) Gold and jewelry: Short-term fluctuations in gold prices may disturb the release of end consumer demand, but the dual attributes of gold category for value preservation and accessories will be further highlighted in the current consumption environment in the long term. Recommended: Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH) and others; 4) Offline retail: Leading companies actively respond to changes in the trend of cost-effective consumption and carry out transformations, exploring new growth drivers with the help of external partners and capital tools. Recommended: Shanghai Bailian Group (600827.SH) and others.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Since 2024, consumer overall continues the trend of low-level recovery.

In the first half of 2024, the total social retail sales reached 23.6 trillion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, showing a slower growth compared to the 4.7% increase in Q1. Among them, the retail sales of goods and services in the first half of the year increased by 3.2% and 7.5% respectively. The overall trend of low-level recovery in consumer goods consumption continues, and there is still potential for further recovery of residents' consumption capacity and confidence in the future.

The growth rate of online consumption is slowing down, but the penetration rate continues to rise.

In the first half of the year, the national online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, showing a slower growth compared to the 12.4% increase in Q1, but overall still outperformed the overall consumer market. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods in the first half of the year increased by 8.8% year-on-year, accounting for 25.3% of the total social retail sales. Looking at different platforms, according to Jiuan Data, Tmall and Douyin achieved sales growth rates of 1.1% and 31.8% respectively in the first half of the year. Tmall achieved a 6.2% growth in revenue in Q2 for the first time after internal adjustments, turning negative to positive. Douyin continues to grow rapidly.

Offline consumption continues to be sluggish, and the market continues to be under pressure.

Last year, after the release of the epidemic, the concentration of offline consumption demand led to a relatively high base, and the current domestic consumption power is still waiting to be unleashed, with great pressure on prices. Therefore, the overall data performance is average. From the perspective of listed companies' performance, the revenue in Q2 has basically declined, and the profit level has continued to decline due to price pressure. The sector market trend also reflects the fundamental trend. As of September 10th, SW general retail has underperformed the benchmark by 14.6% this year.

Cross-border e-commerce performance remains strong, and the sector market performance is influenced by changes in the international situation.

According to preliminary statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's cross-border e-commerce exports in the first half of 2024 reached 1.22 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The overall prosperity of the outbound industry continues to be high, and major listed companies have achieved accelerated growth in revenue in the first half of the year. However, the profit end differs greatly due to factors such as shipping costs and non-recurring expenses. The cross-border e-commerce sector has experienced significant fluctuations this year, mainly due to changes in the international situation, which have intensified concerns in the market about future trade policies. However, in the long run, the resilience of leading symbols in the operation will continue to be gradually demonstrated.

Risk warning:

Consumer recovery is slower than expected; industry competition intensifies; changes in corporate management, etc.