I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 13th.

・The Nikkei Average fell, and the acceleration in yen appreciation became disgusting and then depreciated

・The dollar and yen weakened, and yen was bought due to depreciation in Japanese stocks

・First Rate ＜9983＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average fell, and the acceleration in yen appreciation became disgusting and then depreciated

The Nikkei Average fell. The forward transaction was closed at 36507.10 yen (estimated volume 1 billion 20 million shares), which was 326.17 yen lower (-0.89%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market continued to rise on the 12th. The Dow average closed at 41096.77 dollars, which was 235.06 dollars higher (+ 0.58%), the NASDAQ was 17569.68, 174.15 points higher (+ 1.00%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5595.76, which was 41.63 points higher (+ 0.75%). The August producer price index (PPI) exceeded expectations, but there is a view that the interest rate reduction trajectory has not changed, and semiconductors such as NVIDIA were strong, and after getting close, they rose. At the same time, sales that were disappointed with the moderate pace of interest rate cuts were also seen, and it turned to a temporary decline, but the market remained steady, supported by high technology. Towards the end, when the Wall Street Journal pointed out the possibility of drastic interest rate cuts, buybacks accelerated with a sense of expectation, and continued to grow drastically until the end, and ended.

Although US stocks rose, the depreciation of the yen became heavy, and the Tokyo market started to move slightly. After the close, the Nikkei Average continued to struggle at the 36800 yen level, but as the appreciation of the yen accelerated, such as the exchange rate entering the 140 yen range of 1 dollar, the Nikkei Average became soft. Note that the special settlement index (SQ) value for 9-month options and futures calculated by donation is 36906.92 yen in preliminary figures. Since the Nikkei Average did not rise during trading hours, it is a “phantom SQ” at the time of closing ahead of time.

Among the stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, in addition to not even having the Konami Group ＜9766＞, Nexon ＜3659＞, CyberAge ＜4751＞, etc., export-related brands such as NEC ＜6701＞, Canon ＜7751＞, Murata Seisakusho (6981), Toyota's own ＜7203＞, and Nidec ＜6594＞ were sold due to disgust with the progress of yen appreciation. In addition, Astellas Pharma (4503), Ajinomoto (2802), Shionogi Pharmaceutical (4507), Otsuka Holdings (4578), etc. declined.

Meanwhile, Kawasaki Shigeru ＜7012＞ was bought based on the fact that American securities recommended a new purchase, and Isetan Mitsukoshi HD ＜3099＞ was also bought in response to positive reports from securities companies. Also, semiconductor stocks such as Socionext ＜6526＞ and Advantest ＜6857＞ are firmly on the rise in the NASDAQ. In addition, Ebara Seisakusho (6361), Shiseido (4911), Kuraray (3405), Disco (6146), AEON (8267), etc. were purchased.

By industry, while rubber products, insurance, electric/gas, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc. declined, only the four sectors of shipping, steel, mining, and machinery rose.

The lunchtime exchange rate has entered the 140 yen 70 yen range per dollar, and the appreciation of the yen is accelerating. Since we almost met the low level on the 11th, we are wary of the yen rising one step higher. The backstage Tokyo market is likely to develop with an eye on the exchange rate, but it seems that awareness of the backstage depreciation will intensify. The fact that it became a “phantom SQ” at the time of closing ahead also weighs on investor sentiment. Being aware of the 3 consecutive holidays and next week's Japan-US central bank meeting, etc., I think aggressive push buying can be refrained.

■The dollar and yen are weakening, and yen is bought due to depreciation in Japanese stocks

The dollar and yen weakened in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 13th, and the price dropped from 141 yen 88 yen to 140 yen 79 yen. The Nikkei Stock Average rose higher and then turned negative, and yen purchases, which were disgusted by the depreciation of Japanese stocks, pushed down major currencies. Dollar sales also strengthened due to a decline in 10-year US bond yields, and it fell below 141 yen.

The trading range up to this point is 140 yen 79 yen to 141 yen 88 sen for the dollar and yen, 156 yen 79 yen to 157 yen 10 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.1070 to 1.1089 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・4 stocks, such as Space Market ＜4487＞ and Prodelight ＜5580＞, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・First Rate ＜9983＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・US-August Producer Price Index: +0.2% compared to the previous month (forecast: +0.1%, July: 0←+0.1%)

・US-August Producer Price Core Index: +0.3% compared to the previous month (forecast: +0.2%, July: -0.2% ← 0.0%)

・US-August Producer Price Index: +1.7% compared to the previous year (forecast: +1.7%, July: +2.1% ← +2.2%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・European Central Bank (ECB)

・The main policy interest rate was reduced by 0.60 points to 3.65%

・The deposit facility interest rate (central bank deposit interest rate, lower limit) was reduced by 0.25 points to 3.50%

・The marginal loan interest rate (upper limit) was reduced by 0.60 points to 3.90%

“Growth outlook until 2026 revised downward”

＜Domestic＞

・ 13:30 July industrial production revision value (preliminary value: +2.8% compared to the previous month)

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular