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三个利好组团来袭,黄金再创历史新高!

Three bullish factors hit, gold hits another historical high!

Golden10 Data ·  Sep 12 21:44

Gold is booming, where is the next challenge?

On Thursday, investors' focus was on the initial jobless claims and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). The inflation data was mixed, with some concern, while the job market cooled slightly, but still no sign of large-scale layoffs.

In the week ending September 7th, the initial jobless claims in the USA recorded 0.23 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.227 million, in line with expectations. The annual rate of PPI in August recorded 1.7%, lower than the expected 1.8%, with the previous value revised from 2.2% to 2.1%; the monthly rate recorded 0.2%, exceeding the expected 0.1%, with the previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%. After the data was released, futures traders solidified their bet on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting.

Spot gold continued to rise, hitting a record high of $2550 per ounce, rising nearly $40 from the daily low. Spot silver rose to $29 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 2%. The U.S. dollar index gave up all of its intraday gains.

It is worth noting that the data survey period for last week included the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Initial jobless claims before and after public holidays often fluctuate. However, since falling from a 11-month high of 0.25 million at the end of July, this indicator has remained weak.

In addition, the number of continued jobless claims in the USA as of August 31st was 1.85 million, a slight increase of 0.005 million. Continued jobless claims have mostly trended downward after soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021 in July, consistent with the drop in the unemployment rate last month.

However, the low level of layoffs indicates that despite a significant decrease in job vacancies and new hires, the U.S. labor market remains healthy. Companies still have enough demand to maintain the current level of staffing, indicating continued economic expansion.

In addition to U.S. economic data, earlier this year the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time and lowered economic growth expectations. This caused traders to trim their expectations for ECB interest rates, with a further 36 basis point cut expected by the end of the year. As a result, the euro rose against the dollar, weighing on the index that measures the dollar against a basket of currencies.

Ole Hansen, chief strategist of csi commodity equity index at Saxo Bank, said: "The combination of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, a slight increase in initial jobless claims, and PPI data is enough to push the price of gold to a new all-time high."

Hansen added that for the gold market, no matter how much the interest rate cut is, "the start of an easing cycle could potentially provide support for its price." Lower interest rates are usually favorable for interest-free income from gold and silver.

Gold has risen by more than a fifth this year, and its recent strength is supported by market expectations of the Federal Reserve starting an easing cycle soon. Strong demand from central banks and the otc market has also helped the rebound of this precious metal.

Fxstreet analysts stated that if the bullish trend in gold continues to break through the historical high of $2532, the psychological level above that level at $2550 will become resistance. However, if gold faces resistance again near the $2530 range, a correction will follow. If the daily close falls below the 21-day moving average of $2503, it will negate the short-term upside prospects.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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