维持“增持” 评级，维持盈利预测及目标价：因成品油需求低于预期，且炼化板块仍处于底部复苏期，二季度聚酯工厂停产影响，我们下调公司2024-2025年EPS 为0.24/0.69/1.16元（原为0.47/0.74/0.83元）。参考可比公司采用PB 估值法估值，可比公司平均PB 为2.58，下调目标价为11.20 元（原为14.04 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's interim report fell short of expectations due to reasons such as rising oil prices and demand recovery falling short of expectations. The company cooperated with Saudi Aramco to expand the downstream market, and the controlling shareholders showed confidence that their holdings continued to increase.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “gain” rating and maintain profit forecasts and target prices: Due to lower demand for refined oil products and the refining and chemical sector still recovering at the bottom, the impact of the shutdown of polyester plants in the second quarter, we lowered the company's 2024-2025 EPS to 0.24/0.69/1.16 yuan (originally 0.47/0.74/0.83 yuan). Referring to the valuation of comparable companies using the PB valuation method, the average PB of comparable companies was 2.58, and the target price was lowered by 11.20 yuan (originally 14.04 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
The discontinuation of polyester production in the second quarter affected performance: in 2024, H1 achieved net profit of 0.857 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. After deducting net profit of 0.672 billion yuan, +148% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 achieved net profit of 0.306 billion yuan, -14.5% year-on-year, -47.8% month-on-month, and net profit after deduction of 0.198 billion yuan, -10.4% year-on-year and -44.7% month-on-month. Because demand for refined oil products fell short of expectations and polyester was discontinued for maintenance due to policy reasons, the company's performance fell short of market expectations.
Prices of major energy and chemical products have risen, and demand for chemicals will still take time: the average price of 2024Q2 oil is 85 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.5 US dollars/barrel compared to Q1's 83.46 US dollars/barrel. Due to increased raw material costs in Q2 and weak demand for refined oil products, demand for downstream chemical derivatives is under pressure. According to product classification, 2024H1 refining/chemical/PTA gross margins were 18.57%/14.72%/-1.14%, respectively, -1.69%/+4.56%/-0.5%. According to Steel Union data, the gross profit of the main refinery in Q2 was 430 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan compared with 680 yuan in Q1. In terms of price spread, the price difference of PXN/PTAPX/POY raw materials was 351/347/1125 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to Q1+10/-7/+20 yuan. Although the price difference widened slightly, the drop in load had a big impact on profits.
Cooperation with Saudi Aramco shows confidence: the company has signed a number of strategic agreements with Saudi Arabia, Aramco and the US to expand the downstream market and jointly develop overseas markets through mutual participation of subsidiaries and joint construction of projects. On August 21, the company announced that the controlling shareholders intend to continue to increase their holdings of the company's shares by no less than 0.5 billion yuan and no more than 1 billion yuan, and not set a price range for increasing their holdings. This increase in majority shareholders' holdings can boost investor confidence and support the company's long-term healthy development.
Risk warning: Crude oil prices fluctuated greatly, and the recovery in downstream demand fell short of expectations.