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U.S. stock market outlook | CPI in August fell for the 5th consecutive month, with slight declines in the three major index futures; Is the "Trump trade" unraveling? Concept stocks fell before the market opens.

Futu News · Sep 11 20:06

热点要闻

周三，美股三大股指期货盘前小幅下挫

美国8月CPI同比上升2.5%，连续第5个月回落，预估为2.5%，前值为2.9%；美国8月CPI环比上升0.2%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.2%。美国8月份核心CPI同比上升3.2%，市场预估上升3.2%。

CPI数据公布后，交易员削减了对美联储降息的押注。交易员预计美联储将下周降息25个基点，并预计今年总共将降息100个基点。

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一，阿斯麦涨超2%

特朗普概念股盘前普跌，民调显示63%的观众认为哈里斯在首场辩论中胜出

特朗普概念股美股盘前普跌，$特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$跌超11%，$Phunware (PHUN.US)$跌近9%。消息面上，美国民主党总统候选人、副总统哈里斯和共和党总统候选人、前总统特朗普在费城展开首场电视辩论。CNN委讬SSRS进行的即时民调显示，63%的观众相信，哈里斯在周二的总统候选人辩论中胜过特朗普。

苹果新推视觉搜索功能，与谷歌的合作关系正在升级

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$在9月9日的发布会上推出了视觉搜索功能——“视觉智能（Visual Intelligence）”，这一功能提供了一种与软件和服务交互的新范式，也为其搜索引入了新的模式。苹果软件工程高级副总裁克雷格·费德里吉提到，这项功能也可以用来访问谷歌搜索。这或许能解读为，苹果与$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$的搜索合作伙伴关系正在发生转折。

巴菲特再度出货美银！套现2.3亿美元

股神”沃伦·巴菲特自7月中旬以来就一直在大举出售$美国银行 (BAC.US)$的股票，不过目前的出售速度已经开始有所放缓。据周二（9月10日）的一份最新监管文件，$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$在截至周二的三个交易日（9月6日、9日和10日）总计抛售了近580万股美银股票，价值2.29亿美元。

瑞银盘前涨超1%，开发并购AI助手，20秒内透视30万家公司

$瑞银 (UBS.US)$盘前涨超1%，该行开发了一种人工智能(AI)工具，能够在不到半分钟的时间内分析超过30万家公司的数据库，帮助其为客户提供潜在的并购交易。瑞银瑞士并购业务主管表示，瑞银建立了自己的并购 “co-pilot”，以提出买方想法并帮助卖方识别潜在买家。该工具还可以通过比较演示文稿和问答场景的管理层语气来识别激进投资者的潜在目标。

游戏驿站盘前跌超10%，Q2销售额下滑，正评估关闭门店

美国游戏零售商$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$盘前跌超10%，消息面上，游戏驿站公布截至8月3日止第二季度业绩，营收同比下降31%至7.98亿美元，市场预期为8.96亿美元；调整后每股盈利录得0.04美元，市场预期为亏损0.09美元。该公司表示，正在进行全面的门店组合优化评估，将根据多种因素确定需要关闭的门店。

中概股趣活盘前股价再度翻倍，昨日狂飙306%

昨日飙涨超306%的$趣活 (QH.US)$盘前再度飙涨超100%。然而，在靓丽的股价之下，趣活的造血能力却受到市场质疑，其在国内需求旺盛的灵活用工市场中的表现令人失望。今年上半年，趣活实现收入16.2亿元，同比下降6.7%。按需交付解决方案收入拖累了公司整体收入，该业务收入同比下降9.1%至14.99亿元。

多重利好加身，百济神州盘前涨近5%

$百济神州 (BGNE.US)$盘前涨近5%，消息面上，国家药监局药品审评中心(CDE)官网近日公示，百济神州申报的1类新药BGB-58067片临床试验申请获得受理。根据公开资料，BGB-58067是一款PRMT5抑制剂，为百济神州实体瘤在研产品，预计于2024年进入临床研究阶段。

哔哩哔哩盘前涨超1%，机构予“买入”评级，广告及游戏业务驱动毛利率增长

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$盘前涨超1%，消息面上，第一上海发研报指，哔哩哔哩Q2收入61.3亿元，同比增长15.5%，略高于市场一致预期；毛利率29.9%，同比提升6.8%，主要得益于高毛利广告及游戏业务占比提升。予哔哩哔哩“买入评”级，ADR和H股目标价分别为21美元163.77港元。

晶科能源盘前续涨2%，董事长称光伏行业已从源头遏制产能无序扩张

$晶科能源 (JKS.US)$盘前续涨2%，晶科能源董事长认为当前光伏行业已在周期底部，行业已经从源头遏制了产能无序扩张，未来行业会是逐渐回暖的过程。当前公司储能在规模、技术、商业运营、品牌影响力等方面仍有较大发展空间，目前不急于追求规模，仍属于业务培育阶段。

特斯拉看涨押注再活跃！德银“空转多”看好其再涨超30%

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$隔夜涨4.58%，引伸波幅为70.79%，连续第六日上升。期权链上，成交量最多的是是本周五到期行权价为225美元的call单，成交14.45万张。

特斯拉昨晚现三张看涨大单。同一时间，大户买入下周五到期，行权价为185美元的call，涉资1501.5万美元；另下两单买入今年10月18日到期，行权价为185美元的call，一笔涉资1177.99万美元，一笔涉资505.44万美元。

长期看空特斯拉股价走势的德意志银行近日罕见恢复了对特斯拉的“买入”评级，并给出了295美元的目标价，这意味着特斯拉还能较当前水平上涨约30.4%。
德意志银行表示，该行将特斯拉视为一个试图重塑多个行业的技术平台。在最新报告中，德银分析师Edison Yu认为特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司，由于自动驾驶和人形机器人业务的潜力，该股值得获得独特的溢价。此外，储能业务被强调为正在经历一个主要的增长/利润率拐点，并将在2025年产生130亿美元的销售额。

全球宏观

8月CPI有望继续给市场“添火 ”，两年期美债收益率降至2022年来低点

美国国债价格上涨，将两年期美债收益率推至2022年以来的最低水平。美国将公布备受关注的通胀数据，这可能会巩固市场对美联储本月降息幅度的押注。两年期美债收益率一度下跌5个基点，至3.55%，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。定于周三晚些时候发布的通胀报告预计将显示，美国8月份CPI同比上涨2.5%，低于7月份的2.9%。

德银警告市场对美联储降息预期过于乐观，波动性风险将上升

德意志银行的私人银行部门警告称，波动性即将上升，因为美国政策制定者的宽松程度可能低于交易员的预期。美联储可能会在下周启动降息周期，预计在截至2025年9月的一年里总共降息6次。这比交易员预计的大约9个要少，德银警告道，错误定价可能会引发市场的一轮波动。

交易员押注美联储9月首降25个基点后，近期将有两次降息50个基点

美国利率期权市场的交易员仍在押注美联储今年至少会大幅降息一次——只是可能不会在11月5日美国大选之前。在下周美联储政策会议召开之前，掉期市场反映出降息25个基点的预期，降息幅度更大的可能性微乎其微。但近期与担保隔夜融资利率相关的期权活动显示，交易员越来越多地为美联储到1月总共降息150个基点做准备。

小摩CEO警告：不排除美国经济出现滞胀的可能性

摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙周二表示，他不排除出现滞胀的可能性，尽管他最近对通胀正从高位回落的信心有所增强。戴蒙表示：“我认为最糟糕的结果是滞胀。”“我不会排除这一可能性。”戴蒙发表上述言论之际，投资者正将注意力转向经济增长放缓的迹象。近期的数据显示，通胀越来越接近美联储2%的目标，但就业和制造业的数据显示出一些放缓的迹象。

布朗兄弟哈里曼银行（BBH）：美国竞选辩论后，市场可能正在解除“特朗普交易”

BBH指出，美元走软、美债收益率下跌，以及美国股指期货走低表明，在美国总统竞选电视辩论后，市场可能正在解除所谓的“特朗普交易”。当前的金融市场反应与6月总统辩论后的反应相反，当时特朗普以明显的优势击败了总统拜登。政治对赌网站PredictIt预测副总统哈里斯在辩论中取胜后，金融市场可能在解除‘特朗普交易’”。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国8月季调后CPI月率

20:30 美国8月季调后核心CPI月率

22:20 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在旧金山举行的高盛会议上发表讲话

22:30 美国至9月6日当周EIA原油库存(万桶)

编辑/ping

Hot news

On Wednesday, pre-market trading of the three major US stock index futures fell slightly.

The US CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, falling for the fifth consecutive month, with a forecast of 2.5% and a previous value of 2.9%; The US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, with a forecast of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in August, with market expectations of a 3.2% increase.

After the CPI data was released, traders reduced their bets on a Fed rate cut. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and anticipate a total of 100 basis points of cuts this year.

Pre-market trading of growth tech stocks showed mixed movements, with ASML Holding rising over 2%.

Pre-market trading of Donald Trump-related stocks mostly fell, a poll showed that 63% of the audience believed Harris won the first debate.

Pre-market trading of Donald Trump-related stocks in the US mostly declined.$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$fell more than 11%,$Phunware (PHUN.US)$跌近9%。消息面上，美国民主党总统候选人、副总统哈里斯和共和党总统候选人、前总统特朗普在费城展开首场电视辩论。CNN委讬SSRS进行的即时民调显示，63%的观众相信，哈里斯在周二的总统候选人辩论中胜过特朗普。

苹果新推视觉搜索功能，与谷歌的合作关系正在升级

$Apple (AAPL.US)$在9月9日的发布会上推出了视觉搜索功能——“视觉智能（Visual Intelligence）”，这一功能提供了一种与软件和服务交互的新范式，也为其搜索引入了新的模式。苹果软件工程高级副总裁克雷格·费德里吉提到，这项功能也可以用来访问谷歌搜索。这或许能解读为，苹果与$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$的搜索合作伙伴关系正在发生转折。

巴菲特再度出货美银！套现0.23 billion美元

The 'Stock God' Warren Buffett has been selling stocks heavily since mid-July, but the selling pace has started to slow down. According to the latest regulatory filings on Tuesday, he sold nearly 5.8 million shares of Bank of America stock, worth $0.229 billion, in the three trading days ending Tuesday (September 6th, 9th, and 10th).$Bank of America (BAC.US)$UBS rose more than 1% in pre-market trading, developing an AI assistant to analyze 0.3 million companies within 20 seconds. UBS has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can analyze the database of over 0.3 million companies in less than half a minute, helping them provide potential merger and acquisition transactions to their clients. The head of UBS's Swiss M&A business said that UBS has created its own M&A 'co-pilot' to propose buyer ideas and help sellers identify potential buyers. The tool can also identify the potential targets of aggressive investors by comparing the tone of management in presentation slides and Q&A scenarios.$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$UBS rose more than 1% in pre-market trading, developing an AI assistant to analyze 0.3 million companies within 20 seconds. UBS has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can analyze the database of over 0.3 million companies in less than half a minute, helping them provide potential merger and acquisition transactions to their clients. The head of UBS's Swiss M&A business said that UBS has created its own M&A 'co-pilot' to propose buyer ideas and help sellers identify potential buyers. The tool can also identify the potential targets of aggressive investors by comparing the tone of management in presentation slides and Q&A scenarios.

UBS rose more than 1% in pre-market trading, developing an AI assistant to analyze 0.3 million companies within 20 seconds. UBS has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can analyze the database of over 0.3 million companies in less than half a minute, helping them provide potential merger and acquisition transactions to their clients. The head of UBS's Swiss M&A business said that UBS has created its own M&A 'co-pilot' to propose buyer ideas and help sellers identify potential buyers. The tool can also identify the potential targets of aggressive investors by comparing the tone of management in presentation slides and Q&A scenarios.

$UBS Group (UBS.US)$UBS rose more than 1% in pre-market trading, developing an AI assistant to analyze 0.3 million companies within 20 seconds. UBS has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can analyze the database of over 0.3 million companies in less than half a minute, helping them provide potential merger and acquisition transactions to their clients. The head of UBS's Swiss M&A business said that UBS has created its own M&A 'co-pilot' to propose buyer ideas and help sellers identify potential buyers. The tool can also identify the potential targets of aggressive investors by comparing the tone of management in presentation slides and Q&A scenarios.

Gamestop fell more than 10% before the market, with Q2 sales declining and evaluating the closure of stores.

American game retailer.$GameStop (GME.US)$Before the market fell more than 10%, on the news front, Gamestop announced its second-quarter performance as of August 3, with revenue down 31% to $0.798 billion, compared with market expectations of $0.896 billion; adjusted earnings per share recorded $0.04, compared with market expectations of a loss of $0.09. The company stated that it is conducting a comprehensive store portfolio optimization evaluation to determine the stores that need to be closed based on various factors.

Quhuo, a Chinese concept stock, doubles its stock price before the market, soaring 306% yesterday.

Yesterday's surge of more than 306%.$Quhuo (QH.US)$It soared more than 100% before the market. However, beneath the impressive stock price, Quhuo's ability to generate profits has been questioned by the market, and its performance in the thriving flexible staffing market in China has been disappointing. In the first half of this year, Quhuo achieved a revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a 6.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. On-demand delivery solution revenue dragged down the overall revenue of the company, with a 9.1% year-on-year decrease to 1.499 billion yuan.

With multiple bullish factors, Beigene's pre-market trading rose nearly 5%.

$BeiGene (BGNE.US)$In pre-market trading, the National Medical Products Administration's Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) recently announced on its official website that Beigene's application for Phase 1 clinical trials of the new drug BGB-58067 tablets has been accepted. According to public information, BGB-58067 is a PRMT5 inhibitor and is Beigene's investigational product for solid tumors, expected to enter the clinical research phase in 2024.

In pre-market trading, Bilibili rose more than 1% with a "buy" rating from institutions, driven by an increase in gross margin from advertising and gaming business.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$In pre-market trading, First Shanghai issued a research report stating that Bilibili's Q2 revenue was 6.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.5%, slightly higher than the market's consensus expectations. The gross margin was 29.9%, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the increased proportion of high-gross-margin advertising and gaming businesses. A "buy" rating was given to Bilibili, with target prices of $21 and HK$163.77 for ADR and H-shares, respectively.

In pre-market trading, Jinkosolar continued to rise by 2%, and the chairman stated that the photovoltaic industry has already curbed the uncontrolled expansion of production capacity at the source.

$JinkoSolar (JKS.US)$Pre-market trading continues to rise by 2%. The chairman of JinkoSolar believes that the current photovoltaic industry has reached the bottom of the cycle, and the industry has already curbed the disorderly expansion of production capacity from the source. The future industry will gradually recover. The company's energy storage still has significant room for development in terms of scale, technology, business operations, and brand influence. At present, there is no rush to pursue scale, and it is still in the stage of business cultivation.

Bullish bets on Tesla are active again! Deutsche Bank is optimistic that it will rise by over 30%.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up 4.58% overnight, with an expanded volatility of 70.79%, rising for the sixth consecutive day. In the options chain, the most traded is the call option with a strike price of $225 expiring this Friday, with a volume of 0.1445 million contracts.

Tesla saw three bullish large orders last night. At the same time, a large investor bought calls expiring next Friday with a strike price of $185, totaling $15.015 million; in addition, two more orders were placed for calls expiring on October 18th of this year with a strike price of $185, totaling $11.7799 million and $5.0544 million respectively.

Deutsche Bank, which has had a long-term bearish view on Tesla's stock price trend, recently made a rare upgrade to a 'buy' rating and set a target price of $295, indicating a potential increase of about 30.4% from the current level.
Deutsche Bank sees Tesla as a technology platform trying to reshape multiple industries. In the latest report, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu believes that Tesla is more than just a car company, and due to the potential of autonomous driving and humanoid robot businesses, its stock deserves a unique premium. In addition, the energy storage business is emphasized as undergoing a major inflection point in growth and profit margin, and is expected to generate $13 billion in sales by 2025.

Global macro

August CPI is expected to continue to "add fuel" to the market, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds has fallen to the lowest point since 2022.

The price of US Treasury bonds rose, pushing the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds to the lowest level since 2022. The US will release highly anticipated inflation data, which may consolidate the market's bet on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds briefly fell 5 basis points to 3.55%, the lowest level since September 2022. The inflation report, scheduled to be released later on Wednesday, is expected to show a year-on-year increase in US CPI of 2.5% in August, lower than the 2.9% in July.

Deutsche Bank warns that the market's expectations of a Fed interest rate cut are too optimistic and that volatility risks will rise.

Deutsche Bank's private banking division warns that volatility is about to rise as the degree of easing by US policymakers may be lower than expected by traders. The Fed may start an interest rate cut cycle next week, with a total of 6 interest rate cuts expected by September 2025. This is fewer than the approximately 9 cuts expected by traders, and Deutsche Bank warns that mispricing could trigger a round of market volatility.

Traders are betting that after the Fed's first 25 basis point rate cut in September, there will be two more rate cuts of 50 basis points in the near future.

Traders in the US interest rate options market are still betting that the Fed will cut rates significantly at least once this year, but it may not be before the US general election on November 5th. Before the Fed policy meeting next week, the swap market reflects the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a very slight possibility of a larger rate cut. However, recent options activity related to overnight financing rates suggests that traders are increasingly preparing for a total rate cut of 150 basis points by January.

Goldman Sachs CEO warns: the possibility of stagflation in the US economy cannot be ruled out.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday that he did not rule out the possibility of stagflation, despite his recent increased confidence that inflation was cooling from its high levels. Dimon said, 'I think the worst outcome would be stagflation.' 'I would not rule out this possibility.' Dimon made these comments as investors turned their attention to signs of slowing economic growth. Recent data has shown that inflation is getting closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but there are signs of slowdown in employment and manufacturing data.

Brown Brothers Harriman Bank (BBH): The market may be unwinding the 'Trump trade' after the US presidential debate.

BBH points out that the weakening of the US dollar, the decline in US bond yields, and the decline in US stock index futures indicate that the market may be unwinding the so-called 'Trump trade' after the presidential debate on TV. The current financial market reaction is the opposite of the reaction after the presidential debate in June, when Trump clearly beat President Biden. Political betting website PredictIt predicts that the financial market may unwind the 'Trump trade' after Vice President Harris wins the debate.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 US August seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate.

20:30 US core CPI month-on-month rate for August

22:20 Speech by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco

22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 6 (thousand barrels)

Editor/ping

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