TNB Stock Undervalued Despite 47% YTD Rise: CGS
TNB Stock Undervalued Despite 47% YTD Rise: CGS
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is set for a significant boost in capital expenditure for its Transmission and Distribution (T&D) infrastructure, driven by a surge in power demand surpassing historical trends. The company's latest performance underscores the need for an increase in T&D investments under Regulatory Period 4 (RP4) to address the growing electricity requirements. CGS International Stock Broking House have reiterated an ADD recommendation for TNB, with a revised Sum-of-Parts (SOP) based target price of RM19.10.
馬來西亞電能國際有限公司（TNB）的變電和配電（T&D）製造行業將迎來資本支出的顯著增長，這是由電力需求激增而超越歷史趨勢所推動的。該公司最新的業績凸顯了在第四個監管週期（RP4）下增加T&D投資的需求，以應對不斷增長的電力需求。中國銀河國際證券經紀有限公司已重申對TNb的增持建議，並將基於各部分的目標價修訂爲19.10令吉。
Power demand in Malaysia has notably accelerated, with quarterly growth rates reaching between 3.2% and 9.6% year-on-year from 2Q23 to 2Q24. This marks a sharp increase from the historical growth rate of 1.2% over the previous five years. This robust growth is propelled by higher consumption in the commercial and residential sectors. The existing electricity supply agreements, including those with data centres, suggest an ongoing annual growth rate of 3.5% to 5% over the next several years. In light of these trends, the budgeted average annual T&D capex of RM7.5 billion under RP3 (2022-2024), aimed at supporting a 1.8% annual demand growth, now appears inadequate. Consequently, there is a strong case for increased T&D capex under RP4 (2025-2027), alongside an estimated RM35 billion investment required for energy transition.
馬來西亞電力需求明顯加快，季度增長率從2023年第二季度到2024年第二季度的年同比達到3.2%至9.6%。這標誌着該增速大幅提高，超過了過去五年的歷史增長率1.2%。商業和住宅板塊的用電量提高推動了這種強勁增長。包括與數據中心在內的現有電力供應協議表明，在未來幾年，年均用電量增長率將持續保持在3.5%至5%。基於這些趨勢，2022年至2024年第三個監管週期（RP3）下預算的每年平均T&D資本支出達75億令吉，旨在支持1.8%的年均需求增長，現在顯得不足。因此，在2025年至2027年第四個監管週期（RP4）下，有充分理由增加T&D資本支出，同時需要約350億令吉的能源過渡投資。
GenCo's financial performance has also shown marked improvement. After six consecutive quarters of losses, the company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of RM399 million in 2Q24. This turnaround is attributed to operational enhancements and cost efficiencies. Analysts have adjusted their profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 9%, reflecting this improved performance. The target price for TNB has been raised to RM19.10, driven by an increase in long-term growth expectations from 1.5% to 2% due to the optimistic power demand outlook.
發電公司（GenCo）的財務表現也大幅改善。在連續六個季度虧損之後，該公司在2024年第二季度報告了3.99億令吉的稅後利潤（PAT）。這一好轉歸功於運營增強和成本效率。分析師已將2025年和2026年的利潤預測上調了3%至9%，反映了這一改善的表現。由於對未來需求增長的樂觀預期，TNb的目標價已從1.5%提高到2%，上調至19.10令吉。
Despite a 47% rise in TNB's share price year-to-date, outperforming the KLCI by 29%, the stock remains undervalued. TNB's shares are currently trading at an adjusted 2025 EV/EBITDA of 7.3x, compared to the regional power sector average of 9.1x to 13.2x. This discount is deemed excessive given TNB's strong earnings profile, with over 70% of its income derived from its regulated T&D business and the positive impact of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Foreign shareholding in TNB has increased slightly but remains below previous highs, indicating room for further investment.
儘管電能國際有限公司股價今年迄今上漲了47%，比吉隆坡綜合指數（KLCI）高出29%，但該股票仍被低估。與區域能源板塊平均的2025年主營業務利潤倍數（EV/EBITDA）7.3倍相比，TNB的股票折價過高，後者爲9.1倍至13.2倍。鑑於TNB收入中超過70%來自其受監管的T&D業務，以及國家能源過渡路線圖（NETR）對其產生的積極影響，外國參股金融已略微增加，但仍低於以往的高點，表明還有進一步投資的空間。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。