2024 上半年，公司毛利率5.89%，同比-0.63pct；净利率3.23%，同比+0.34pct。其中，航空产品毛利率5.62%，同比-0.81pct；国内毛利率6.16%，同比-1.26pct。费用端，期间费用率2.75%，同比+0.35pct，销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别1.11%/2.04%/-0.61%/0.21%，同比分别+0.28/-0.25/+0.44/-0.11pct。我们认为，公司主营业务盈利能力较稳定，降本增效工作成效逐渐显露。资产负债端，2024 上半年公司货币资金59.55 亿元，较上年末-69.15%，主要系支付供应商采购款所致；应收账款234.45 亿元，较上年末+31.92%，主要系产品销售增加及部分商品货款尚未收回所致；合同资产21.81 亿元，较上年末+14.07%；存货238.29 亿元，较上年末+1.69%；合同负债110.63 亿元，较上年末-41.16%，主要系部分预收货款结转收入所致。我们认为，2024 上半年公司积极备产备货，下游订单需求稳定，全年公司业绩可期。Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved operating income of 20.329 billion yuan, +3.95% year over year; net profit to mother 0.657 billion yuan, +16.25% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.622 billion yuan, +14.93% year over year. The second quarter achieved revenue of 11.874 billion yuan in a single quarter, +2.25% year over month, +40.44% month on month; net profit to mother 0.385 billion yuan, +16.67% year on year, +41.18% month on month; net profit without return to mother 0.345 billion yuan, +8.22% year on year and +24.28% month on month.
We believe that the company successfully completed scientific research and production tasks in the first half of the year, successfully achieved the “2323” balanced production stage target, and exceeded the factory test flight work. The company's AG600 model has been produced in small batches ahead of schedule, the production capacity of the C919 project has been steadily increased, the Xinzhou 60 fire extinguisher has completed certification, the international subcontract business has reached the mission point as scheduled, and the military and civilian aircraft missions have gone hand in hand.
Profitability remained stable, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency were evident
In the first half of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 5.89%, -0.63pct year on year; net profit margin was 3.23%, +0.34pct year on year. Among them, the gross profit margin of aviation products was 5.62%, -0.81 pct year on year; domestic gross profit margin was 6.16%, -1.26 pct year on year. On the cost side, the period cost ratio was 2.75%, +0.35pct year on year, and the sales/management/finance/R&D expenses ratio was 1.11%/2.04%/-0.61%/0.21%, respectively, and +0.28/-0.25/+0.44/ -0.11pct, respectively. We believe that the profitability of the company's main business is relatively stable, and the results of reducing costs and increasing efficiency are gradually showing. On the balance and liability side, the company's monetary capital of 5.955 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, compared to the end of the previous year, was mainly due to payment of supplier purchases; accounts receivable of 23.445 billion yuan, +31.92% compared to the end of the previous year, mainly due to increased product sales and unrecovered payment for some products; contract assets of 2.181 billion yuan, +14.07% over the end of the previous year; inventory of 23.829 billion yuan, +1.69% from the end of the previous year; contract liabilities 11.063 The billion yuan, compared to -41.16% at the end of the previous year, was mainly due to the carry-over income of some advance payments. We believe that in the first half of 2024, the company actively prepared for production, demand for downstream orders was stable, and the company's performance can be expected throughout the year.
The commercial performance of large aircraft is stable, and commercial potential continues to be unleashed
As of August '24, a total of 9 domestic C919 aircraft have been delivered to customers. China Eastern Airlines' C919 commercial performance was impressive. Air China and China Southern Airlines will renew orders for 100 aircraft each in 2024. According to the delivery plans announced by China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines, a total of 300 C919s purchased by the three airlines will all be delivered in batches from 2024 to 2031. Among them, China Eastern Airlines plans to deliver 5 aircraft in 2024, 10 aircraft per year from 2025 to 2027, 15 aircraft per year from 2028 to 2030, and 20 aircraft in 2031. We believe that the delivery pace of Air China and China Southern Airlines can be compared. In the future, with the production capacity of the C919 Second Assembly Plant in Lingang, Shanghai, the C919 mass production and delivery speed is expected to increase, COMAC's annual production target of 150 aircraft is expected to be achieved at an accelerated pace, and the company's civil aircraft performance is expected to benefit.
Profit forecast and rating: We believe that as a leading enterprise of large and medium-sized aircraft in China, the company is expected to fully benefit from the “14th Five-Year Plan” leapfrog development demand boom, compounded by continued strong demand for large domestic aircraft. We judge that the company's short performance is improving in the medium to long term. The company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 46.467/53.67/62.284 billion yuan. Considering the long term for mass production of new military aircraft and the delivery of C919 orders, net profit to mother was lowered from 1.168/1.623/2.316 billion yuan to 1.149/1.454/1.799 billion yuan, corresponding PE to 58/46/37x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in military business; risk of developing new models of equipment falling short of expectations; risk of product price; risk of business conditions and profitability falling short of expectations; subjective risk, etc.
