When it comes to investing, there are some useful financial metrics that can warn us when a business is potentially in trouble. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. So after glancing at the trends within Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG), we weren't too hopeful.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Packaging Corporation of America:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.14 = US$1.0b ÷ (US$9.0b - US$1.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Therefore, Packaging Corporation of America has an ROCE of 14%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Packaging industry average of 10% it's much better.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Packaging Corporation of America compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Packaging Corporation of America .

The Trend Of ROCE

There is reason to be cautious about Packaging Corporation of America, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 18%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Packaging Corporation of America to turn into a multi-bagger.

What We Can Learn From Packaging Corporation of America's ROCE

In summary, it's unfortunate that Packaging Corporation of America is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Since the stock has skyrocketed 122% over the last five years, it looks like investors have high expectations of the stock. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

Packaging Corporation of America does have some risks though, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Packaging Corporation of America that you might be interested in.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.