The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that the world is expected to achieve a sales volume of 7.97 million units in 2024, an increase of 6% over 2023. In 2024, the VR market will reverse the downward sales trend of the past two years and return to a positive growth trajectory, but the VR industry will still be in a small year of sales this year and next. On segmented tracks, the optical waveguide solution has advantages in terms of clarity, field of view, volume, and light penetration, and is the best optical implementation path in AR glasses. On the other hand, various technology routes for AR optoelectronics coexist. LCOS may become the mainstream technology route for consumer products in the near future, and MicroLED is the mainstream technology route in the future market.

The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:

According to Wellsenn XR data, global VR sales in Q2 2024 were 1.35 million units, down 6% year on year. The main reason for the decline was Sony PS VR2. The cumulative sales volume of Sony PS VR2 in the second quarter was only 0.08 million units. In the same period last year, the PS VR2 sold 0.25 million units, down 68% year on year. Meta's second quarter sales volume was 1.02 million units, up 6% year on year. The basic market was stable. Apple Pro sales volume in the second quarter was 0.08 million units, contributing less to Apple. Vision Pro sales fell short of expectations. The global sales volume is expected to reach 7.97 million units in 2024, up 6% from 2023. In 2024, the VR market will reverse the downward sales trend of the past two years and return to a positive growth trajectory, but the VR industry will still be in a small year of sales this year and next.

Global AR sales in the second quarter of 2024 were 0.108 million units, the same as the same period last year

The overall market was sluggish in the second quarter of this year. The e-commerce platform 618 traditional promotion day came to an end this year, and the overall consumer market declined. The cash flow of AR manufacturers was tight this year, and the weakening of channel promotion and marketing was also a major factor in overall sales. Global AR sales are expected to be 0.55 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of 8%. The growth rate of BB movie glasses is slowing down. The growth highlights mainly come from AL+AR glasses. It is expected that 2024-2025 will be a new variable in the development of the industry.

Future new product release pace: Meta will release AR glasses in 2024. Meta's first AI smart glasses will be released at the end of September 2023. Previously, in 2021, Meta also launched Facebook and Ray-Ban collaborated to develop Ray-Ban Stories smart glasses. The Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses are equipped with Qualcomm's new Snapdragon AR1Gen 1 chip, and are also the first smart glasses with built-in Meta AI.

Compared with RayBan Stories, RayBan Meta (released in September 2023) has adjusted and upgraded some product structures, chip hardware, and functional parameters, such as the hinge structure has been updated to increase its reusability and hidden wiring; in terms of chip hardware, the WF Bluetooth chip has been upgraded, and the three microphones have been upgraded to five microphones; in terms of functionality, the RayBan second-generation smart glasses RayBan has added functions such as live streaming and artificial intelligence models.

Technical route: Which are the golden tracks? Optical devices and displays are the core elements of future AR

The optical waveguide scheme has advantages in terms of clarity, field of view, volume, and light penetration, and is the best optical implementation path in AR glasses. According to the manufacturing process, optical waveguide technology is divided into three types: geometric optical waveguide (ROE), diffractive optical waveguide (DOE), and holographic optical waveguide (HOE). Based on comprehensive performance and large-scale mass production advantages, the industry generally believes that optical waveguide technology in AR glasses will become mainstream in the future. Yole predicts that the penetration rate of waveguide technology in AR devices will gradually increase from 38% in 2021 to 99% in 2027.

Multiple technology routes coexist for AR optoelectronics. LCOS may become the mainstream technology route for consumer products in the near future, and MicroLED is the mainstream technology route in the future market. AR optical machine display technology paths are mainly divided into self-emitting microLEDs, silicon-based OLEDs (OLED on Si), laser+MEMS micromirrors, and reflective liquid crystal display LCOS. According to Yole's forecasts and statistics, the global AR display market will rapidly grow from $0.176 billion in 2022 to $6.6 billion in 2027. Among them, the LCOS technology solution is expected to increase from 30% in 2023 to 40% in 2024; in terms of microLED, 2022 is the first year of Micro LED shipment. With excellent performance, it is expected to become the largest technology path for miniature screen displays by 2027, with a market size of 2.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 38%.

Recommended attention: In the field of optical waveguides, it is recommended to focus on Goertek Co., Ltd. (002241.SZ) and Crystal Optoelectronics (002273.SZ). MEMS microphones suggest focusing on Goertek shares, Ruisheng Technology (02018), and Minxin shares (688286.SH). In terms of MCU chips, it is recommended to pay attention to Hengxuan Technology (688608.SH). LCOS Technology Route suggests focusing on Vail Co., Ltd. (603501.SH), and Micro LED Technology Route suggests focusing on JBD. In the field of shafts, it is recommended to focus on Jingyan Technology (300709.SZ), etc. In terms of cameras and modules, it is recommended to pay attention to Weir Co., Ltd., Shunyu Optics (02382), and Ofiliguang (002456.SZ). In the storage field, it is recommended to focus on Meta's supporting Baiwei Storage (688525.SH).

Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations; increased competition has led to a decline in manufacturers' profit margins.