Malaysian Banks Offer Refuge During Period Of Market Volatility
Malaysian Banks Offer Refuge During Period Of Market Volatility
The banking sector has been upgraded to an Overweight rating from Neutral, with AMMB, Public Bank (PBK), Hong Leong Bank (HLBK), and Alliance Bank Malaysia highlighted as preferred picks. The upgrade reflects the view that Malaysian banks could offer a stable refuge during a period of market volatility, influenced by upcoming events such as the US presidential election and potential Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts. The sector's stability is supported by large-cap liquidity, ample loan provision buffers, and attractive dividend yields, which should help mitigate near-term volatility.
銀行業的評級已從中性上調至增持，AmMB、大衆銀行（PBK）、豐隆銀行（HLBK）和馬來西亞聯合銀行被列爲首選。此次上調反映了這樣的觀點，即受美國總統大選和可能的聯邦基金利率（FFR）下調等即將發生的事件的影響，馬來西亞銀行可以在市場波動時期提供穩定的避難所。該行業的穩定得到了大盤股流動性、充足的貸款準備緩衝和誘人的股息收益率的支持，這將有助於緩解短期波動。
Analysts have provided various calls for the sector, including an upgrade to OVERWEIGHT with a focus on stability and upside potential from foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. Despite recent sector valuation reratings, it is believed to remain reasonable. The recent positive revision in earnings expectations, particularly for PBK which has raised its return on equity (ROE) guidance, highlights optimism in the sector's outlook. Anticipated increases in loan growth and net interest margin (NIM), coupled with well-managed credit costs, further support this positive sentiment.
分析師對該行業提出了各種呼籲，包括上調至增持，重點是穩定性和外國機構投資者（FII）流入的上行潛力。儘管最近對行業估值進行了重新評級，但據信它仍然合理。最近對收益預期的積極修正，特別是對提高股本回報率（ROE）指導的PbK的盈利預期，凸顯了該行業前景的樂觀情緒。貸款增長和淨利率（NIM）的預期增長，加上管理良好的信貸成本，進一步支持了這種積極情緒。
In the second quarter of 2024, six out of eight Malaysian banks delivered results in line with expectations. Notably, HLBK's fourth-quarter results and AMMB's first-quarter performance exceeded forecasts due to lower-than-expected impairments. While the sector's pre-tax income fell slightly by 1% quarter-on-quarter, it increased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in non-interest income from lower trading and markets income. Profit after tax and minority interests (PATMI) saw a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 10% year-on-year rise, supported by reduced credit costs and a net write-back in impairments.
在2024年第二季度，八家馬來西亞銀行中有六家的業績符合預期。值得注意的是，由於減值低於預期，HLBK第四季度業績和AMMB第一季度的業績超出了預期。儘管該行業的稅前收入同比略有下降1％，但同比增長了3％，這主要是由於交易和市場收入減少導致的非利息收入下降。在信貸成本降低和減值淨減記的支持下，稅後利潤和少數股權（PATMI）同比增長2％，同比增長10％。
For the fiscal years 2024 to 2025, sector net profit projections have been adjusted upwards by 0.5-1%. The main adjustment was a downgrade of CIMB's rating to Neutral from Buy, reflecting a more modest potential upside following strong share price performance. The sector is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% in PATMI over the next few years, driven by loan and non-interest income growth and stabilisation of NIM and credit costs.
對於2024至2025財年，該行業的淨利潤預測已向上調整了0.5-1％。主要調整是將聯昌國際銀行的評級從買入下調至中性，這反映了在股價表現強勁之後可能出現的較爲溫和的上行空間。在貸款和非利息收入增長以及NiM和信貸成本穩定的推動下，該行業在未來幾年中PATMI的複合年增長率（CAGR）預計將達到約6％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。