结论：考虑行 业远期需求仍在逐步恢复，维持2024 年EPS 预测为1.38 元，下调2025-2026 年EPS 预测至1.59/1.88 元（原1.64/1.92元），参考可比公司估值，下调公司目标价至20.7 元（原21.52 元），维持 “增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024H1 performance is in line with expectations, profits fluctuate in the short term, and expenses are relatively stable. The company is actively expanding overseas markets, which is expected to drive performance growth.
Key points of investment:
Conclusion: Considering that the industry's long-term demand is still gradually recovering, maintain the 2024 EPS forecast at 1.38 yuan, lower the 2025-2026 EPS forecast to 1.59/1.88 yuan (originally 1.64/1.92 yuan), refer to comparable company valuations, lower the company's target price to 20.7 yuan (originally 21.52 yuan), and maintain the “gain” rating.
Consumption power has yet to be repaired, and significant breakthroughs have been made in the overall channel. The company's performance is in line with expectations. Since 24Q2, the domestic market consumption environment has remained weak. In the context of rational consumption, the company used packages and drainage to increase sales. The average customer order value for a single product declined slightly, but the overall customer order value remained stable. Offline channels have been under pressure for a short period of time due to organizational personnel and system adjustments, but offline retail has been corrected year on year since July. Currently, the number of Xilinmen/Ximian/M&D (including Xia Tu) own-brand specialty stores has reached more than 5,000. The company is actively developing new channels such as supermarkets/home improvement/residential areas to form a 1+N omni-channel sales network. Starting in 2023, the home improvement channel has doubled its business volume.
Profits fluctuate in the short term, and the expense ratio is relatively stable. 24Q2 gross profit margin 35.82% /-1.2pct, mainly due to changes in the business structure due to the growth of international and hotel business, the net profit ratio is 7.30% /-0.3pct, the overall cost ratio is stable (sales expenses ratio 19.65% /+0.3pct, management expenses rate 5.26% /-0.1pct, R&D expenses rate 2.06% /+0.1pct), financial expenses ratio 0.51% /+1.3pct. If the impact of exchange profit and loss is excluded, 24H1 profit increased by more than 15%. At present, the company is deeply laying out the field of healthy sleep and comprehensively promoting the innovation and upgrading of smart sleep products. In April 2024, the company completed commercialization and implementation of the new smart sleep ecosystem brand AISE Baobao. Currently, it is pioneering pilot promotion in high-star hotel channels, and is expected to improve the product structure in the future when entering the civilian market.
Actively explore overseas markets and strengthen fee control to release profits. The company actively explores overseas markets. The “Belt and Road” region's business grew strongly, and the overseas OEM business grew by more than 38%.
The company enhances competitiveness through cost optimization and design, and it is expected that 24H2 overseas business will still achieve double-digit growth. It is expected that as the company continues to focus on optimizing the quality of operations, it will explore incremental and new business.
Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate greatly.
