公司2024H1 营收13.72 亿元（同增9%），主要系奶吧门店持续开拓新市场所致，归母净利润0.26 亿元（同增5%），扣非净利润0.27 亿元（同增19%）。其中，2024Q2 营收7.29 亿元（ 同增6% ） ， 归母净利润0.16 亿元（ 同减22%），扣非净利润0.17 亿元（同减15%）。盈利端，2024Q2 公司毛利率同减2pct 至29.50%，销售/管理费用率分别同比+0.2pct/-1pct 至23.64%/0.97%，净利率同减1pct 至2.21%。On August 29, 2024, Yiming Foods released its 2024 semi-annual results report.
Key points of investment
Revenue continues to grow, and profit side is under marginal pressure
The company's 2024H1 revenue was 1.372 billion yuan (up 9% from the same period), mainly due to milk bar stores continuing to explore new markets. Net profit was 0.026 billion yuan (same increase of 5%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.027 billion yuan (same increase of 19%). Among them, 2024Q2's revenue was 0.729 billion yuan (up 6% from the same period), net profit to mother was 0.016 billion yuan (same decrease of 22%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.017 billion yuan (same decrease of 15%). On the profit side, 2024Q2's gross margin decreased by 2 pct to 29.50%, the sales/management expenses ratio was +0.2 pct/-1pct to 23.64%/0.97%, respectively, and the net margin decreased by 1 pct to 2.21%.
Online channels are growing strongly, and the big single product strategy continues to advance
By product, the company's 2024H1 dairy/baking/other food revenue was 0.646/0.469/0.105 billion yuan, respectively, +6%/-2%/+58% year-on-year, respectively. In the second half of the year, the company plans to further cultivate existing large single products, introduce Chinese food products, and make a breakthrough in coffee products. By business type, the company's 2024Q2 direct store/franchise store/ distribution channel/ direct sales channel/ online channel revenue was 1.55/2.39/0.079/0.146/0.022 billion yuan, respectively, -9%/-2%/-11%/+31%/+64%, respectively. 2024H1 successfully entered the Jiangxi market, continued to expand new cities in the Anhui market, and formulated a “one city, one policy” product matrix, which is expected to promote growth. As of 2024H1, the total number of active stores in East China was 2,055, of which 580/1,475 direct-operated stores/franchised stores were respectively, a net change of -38/+35 compared to the beginning of 2024. By region, the company's revenue in East China region/online sales in 2024Q2 was 0.618/0.022 billion yuan, up +0.4%/+64%, respectively. Online sales grew strongly. The O2O sector accounted for 73% of new customers, and both takeout platforms and Douyin's local lifestyle are working together, which is expected to become a new profit growth point.
Profit forecasting
We are optimistic about the expansion of the company's franchise stores and the improvement of single store efficiency. With the optimization of the product structure/management model, it is expected that the revenue scale and profitability will continue to increase at the same time. According to the semi-annual report, we expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.15/0.20/0.27 (previous value was 0.16/0.23/0.31), and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 58/43/32 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downturn risks, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, increased industry competition, regional expansion falling short of expectations, capacity construction or utilization falling short of expectations, etc.
