In 2020 Elon Musk Predicted That 100% Cars Produced By 2040 Will Be Electric And Fully Autonomous. Now He Says '99% Is Probably Right'
In 2020 Elon Musk Predicted That 100% Cars Produced By 2040 Will Be Electric And Fully Autonomous. Now He Says '99% Is Probably Right'
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk updated his 2020 forecast regarding the future of electric and fully autonomous vehicles.
特斯拉公司（納斯達克股票代碼：TSLA）和SpaceX首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克更新了對未來電動和完全自動駕駛汽車的2020年預測。
What Happened: On Friday, Musk responded to a video about his 2020 prediction on the future of electric and fully autonomous cars.
發生了什麼：在週五，馬斯克對一段關於他對未來電動和完全自動駕駛汽車的2020年預測的視頻作出了回應。
In the video, Musk can be seen predicting that by 2040, all cars produced will be electric and fully autonomous.
在視頻中，馬斯克預測到到2040年，所有生產的汽車都將是電動和完全自動駕駛的。
"As it is right now only a couple of percent of new car production is electric and at least right now no new car production is fully autonomous. But 20 years from now, probably essentially 100% electric, 100% fully autonomous," he said back then.
他當時說：「就目前而言，新車生產中只有幾個百分點是電動的，而且目前沒有新車生產是完全自動駕駛的。但從現在起20年後，可能是100%的電動汽車，100%的完全自動駕駛。」
Responding to the video, Musk revised his prediction, suggesting that around 99% of cars produced by 2040 will be electric and fully autonomous, rather than 100% as he had previously stated.
對該視頻的回應中，馬斯克修正了他的預測，他認爲到2040年，生產的汽車中大約有99%將是電動和完全自動駕駛的，而不是之前他所說的100%。
He said, "Easy prediction. All is a strong word, but ~99% is probably right."
他說：「容易預測。『所有』是一個強有力的詞，但大約99%可能是正確的。」
Easy prediction.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 6, 2024
All is a strong word, but ~99% is probably right.
容易預測。
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2024年9月6日
『所有』是一個強有力的詞，但大約99%可能是正確的。
Why It Matters: Earlier this year in March, Musk estimated that it will take at least a decade before most cars on the road are self-driving.
爲什麼重要：今年三月，馬斯克預計，要等到至少十年後，大多數道路上的汽車才能實現自動駕駛。
He acknowledged that concerns about self-driving technology are valid but suggested that these issues can be addressed over the next ten years.
他承認對自動駕駛技術的擔憂是合理的，但並且認爲這些問題可以在未來十年內解決。
The following month, he reiterated that Tesla would be "happy" to license its full self-driving (FSD) technology to other car companies, but no automaker seemed interested at the time.
第二個月，他重申特斯拉「樂意」授權其完整的全自動駕駛（FSD）技術給其他汽車公司，但當時沒有任何汽車製造商表現出興趣。
Later in April, Musk hinted that Florida could be the first U.S. state where Tesla introduces driverless FSD, citing the state's relatively easier laws regulating autonomous vehicles.
四月晚些時候，馬斯克暗示佛羅里達州可能會成爲特斯拉首個引入無人駕駛FSD的美國州，稱該州對自動駕駛汽車的監管法律相對較輕鬆。
Meanwhile, industry experts have highlighted infrastructure as a significant hurdle to wider EV adoption.
與此同時，行業專家強調基礎設施是更廣泛採用電動汽車的重要障礙。
Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, noted that EV sales are surpassing traditional vehicle sales, with a 7% increase in July and an 11.3% year-over-year rise.
Cox Automotive的執行分析師Erin Keating指出，電動汽車銷量超過傳統汽車銷量，7月份增長了7％，同比增長了11.3％。
Despite this growth, Keating highlighted the ongoing issue of inadequate charging infrastructure. Many potential EV buyers, especially those in apartments or without home garages, struggle with limited access to charging stations.
儘管有所增長，但Keating強調了充電基礎設施不足的持續問題。許多潛在的電動汽車購買者，特別是那些住在公寓或沒有家庭車庫的人，面臨充電站資源有限的困境。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。