Treasury Yields Plunge, TLT ETF Tops $100, VIX Spikes As 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut Odds Soar In Response To Jobs Data
Treasury Yields Plunge, TLT ETF Tops $100, VIX Spikes As 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut Odds Soar In Response To Jobs Data
The U.S. Treasury market rallied sharply on Friday after August labor data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, bolstering bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
8月勞工數據顯示就業增長低於預期，推動美國國債市場大幅上揚，增強了對聯儲局減息的押注。
The U.S. economy added 142,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, an increase from 89,000 in July but missing the expected increase to 160,000. The unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.3% as expected, while wages displayed higher-than-forecasted growth.
美國經濟上個月增加了14.2萬個非農就業崗位，比7月的8.9萬個增加，但低於預期的16萬個增加。預期失業率下降0.1%至4.3%，工資增長高於預期。
Market-implied odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 61% as of 11:05 a.m. in New York, overtaking the 39% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch data.
根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）集團的FedWatch數據，紐約時間上午11:05，9月份減息50個點子的市場預期激增至61%，超過25個點子減息的39%概率。
September Rate-Cut Probabilities After August Jobs Data
8月份就業數據後的9月減息概率
| September Rate Cut | Now* | 1 day ago (Sept. 5, 2024) | 1 Week ago (Aug. 30, 2024) |
| 50 basis points (0.5%) | 61% | 40% | 30% |
| 25 basis points (0.25%) | 39% | 60% | 70% |
| 9月減息 | 現在* | 1天前 (2024年9月5日) | 1周前 (2024年8月30日) |
| 50個點子（0.5%） | 61% | 40% | 30% |
| 25個點子（0.25%） | 39% | 60% | 70% |
Traders poured into bonds amid growing expectations of declining interest rates, driving yields sharply lower across the Treasury curve.
在利率期貨下降預期不斷增加的情況下，交易商紛紛投資債券，導致國債收益率在整個國債曲線上急劇下降。
The policy-sensitive two-year yield dropped over 10 basis points, reaching 3.59% at 11:15 a.m. in New York, its lowest level since March 2023.
政策敏感的兩年期收益率下跌超過10個點子，在紐約時間上午11:15達到3.59％，是自2023年3月以來的最低水平。
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 3.67%, marking its lowest point since June 2023.
10年期國債收益率下降6個點子至3.67％，創下自2023年6月以來的最低點。
This movement has led to a positive slope in the Treasury yield curve from the 10-year onward, effectively ending the more than two-year period of yield curve inversion.
這一動向導致國債收益率曲線從10年期開始呈現正斜率，有效地結束了兩年多的收益率曲線倒掛期。
Chart: US Yield Curve Normalizes, Ending 2-Year Inversion
圖表：美國收益率曲線正常化，結束了兩年的倒掛
Market Reactions
市場反應
Rate-cut expectations and falling Treasury yields triggered sharp moves across asset classes, with bonds rallying, the dollar weakening against the yen and equity markets sliding.
利率期貨期望下調和國債收益率下降引發了各類資產的大幅波動，債券上漲，美元對日元走弱，股市下滑。
"No sooner than the payroll print hit, the algorithms marched into high gear, pushing Treasury yields lower as the disappointing headline number, coupled with a series of downward revisions, suggested a more dire economic backdrop perhaps requiring a heavier dose of Fed medicine on Sept. 18," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
「就在僱員工資單出爐後不久，算法開始高速運轉，隨着令人失望的頭條數據以及一系列的下調，推動着國債收益率走低，這似乎表明着更加嚴峻的經濟背景，或許需要在9月18日採取更爲嚴厲的聯儲局政策，」 景順全球首席策略師Quincy Krosby說。
Markets are wrestling with whether the August payroll data signals a labor market returning to pre-COVID norms or an economy losing critical momentum, Krosby said.
Krosby說，市場正在權衡8月份的工資單數據是否預示着勞動力市場正在恢復到新冠疫情前的正常水平，還是經濟正在失去關鍵的動力。
- Treasury-related ETFs surged, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) rising 1.1% to $100.65, on pace for its highest close since late July 2023.
- The Japanese yen strengthened as well, with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY) gaining over 1%, poised to close at its highest level since early January 2024.
- Volatility spiked, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 14% to 23.
- Wall Street flipped to the red, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) dropping 1.5% on Friday, extending its weekly decline to 3.9%, on track for the worst weekly performance since March 2023.
- Tech stocks were hit hardest, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) down 2.4%, pushing its weekly loss past 5%.
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) tumbled 4%, extending its weekly loss to 14%, its worst performance in two years.
- 與此同時，與國債相關的etf大漲，納指20年國債etf (納斯達克:TLT) 上漲了1.1%，達到100.65美元，預計將創自2023年7月底以來的最高收盤價。
- 日元也有所走強，景順日元etf-currencyshares (紐交所:FXY) 上漲超過1%，有望收於2024年年初以來的最高水平。
- 波動性飆升，芝加哥期權交易所的波動率指數 (VIX) 上漲了14%，達到23。
- 華爾街轉入下跌，標普500etf trust (紐交所:SPY) 上週五下跌了1.5%，本週跌幅擴大至3.9%，有望創下自2023年3月以來的最差周表現。
- 科技股遭受的打擊最嚴重，納指100etf-invesco qqq trust (納斯達克:QQQ) 下跌了2.4%，使其本週損失超過了5%。
- Nvidia Corp. (納斯達克:NVDA) 下跌了4%，使其本週的損失擴大到14%，是兩年來最糟糕的表現。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。