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分析师:欧佩克+延迟增产不会改变明年供应过剩局面

The analyst: OPEC+ delaying production increase will not change the oversupply situation next year.

Gelonghui Finance ·  19:54

Grant Smith, an analyst, said that OPEC+ decided to delay its production increase plan, but this temporary measure cannot prevent global market oversupply in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that even if OPEC+ continues to limit production throughout 2025, there will still be oversupply due to sluggish demand growth and increased production from other oil-producing countries. Christof Ruehl, a senior analyst at the Global Energy Policy Center at Columbia University, said, "The outlook for OPEC+ in 2025 is not optimistic at all. Non-OPEC supply is enough to cause oversupply in the market. And now, in order to maintain price increases and suppress supply, it will certainly contribute to this situation." According to the IEA's forecast, global daily oil consumption will increase by less than 1 million barrels next year, an increase of about 1%. New production outside of OPEC+ will exceed global consumption growth by more than 50%. Therefore, global inventories will increase significantly by 1.3 million barrels per day starting from the first quarter of next year. Spencer Dale, the Chief Economist of BP plc, warned last month that there is "limited space" for OPEC+ to increase production in this situation.

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