1)安监强化国内供给减量，Q2环比修复：2024上半年，保供政策延续下2024H1原煤产量实现22.66亿吨，但受安监强化、山西限产影响2024H1原煤产量同比下降1.5%。不过随着2024Q2煤炭生产修复，国内实现原煤产量11.6亿吨，同比+1.1%，环比+4.9%。2)进口发挥补充作用维持稳增：由于南方港口远离国内煤炭主产区，对进口煤有刚性需求，或带动2024上半年进口方面保持稳定增长。2024H1进口煤及褐煤量达到2.5亿吨，同比+12.5%;2024Q2或主要系国内煤价跌幅大于海外煤价，进口价差明显收窄下进口实现1.34亿吨，同比+11.3%，环比+15.3%。3)Q2煤价整体延续下跌：分煤种看，①动力煤，2024H1秦港(Q5500)动力煤均价875元/吨，同比-14%，其中Q2或受用电淡季叠加降雨充沛致水电出力增加影响，秦港(Q5500)动力煤均价848元/吨，环比-6%，同比-7%;②焦煤，2024H1京唐港主焦煤均价2251元/吨，同比+1%;2024Q2京唐港山西产主焦煤均价2092元/吨，环比-13%，同比+8%。4)经营情况：2024H1煤炭板块实现营业收入6744亿元，同比-9.6%;实现归母净利润781亿元，同比-26.8%。2024Q2产销修复对冲部分经营业绩下滑压力，煤炭板块实现营业收入3350亿元，同比-6.2%，环比-1.3%;实现归母净利润374亿元，同比-14.7%，环比-8.2%。In the first half of 2024, under the continuation of the guarantee policy, 2024H1 raw coal production reached 2.266 billion tons, but due to strengthened safety supervision and production restrictions in Shanxi, 2024H1 raw coal production fell 1.5% year on year.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Changjiang Securities published a research report saying that due to strengthened safety supervision and production restrictions in Shanxi, domestic supply was restored month-on-month; imports played a complementary role and maintained steady growth. Since Southern Ports are far from major domestic coal-producing regions, there is a rigid demand for imported coal, which may drive imports to maintain steady growth in the first half of 2024. Overall Q2 coal prices continued to fall. In terms of thermal coal, coal prices continued to fall in the off-season, and production and sales rebounded, and the decline in Q2 performance converged; in coking coal, the coal coke and steel game continued, where demand was stable during the peak season, and performance declined but the decline subsided. In addition, several coal companies announced mid-term dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (01898,601898.SH), and Shanghai Energy (600508.SH).
Self-production was restricted, imports increased steadily, and production and sales recovery in Q2 converged, and performance declined
1) Safety supervision strengthened domestic supply reduction, and Q2 recovered month-on-month: In the first half of 2024, 2024H1 raw coal production reached 2.266 billion tons under the continuation of the guarantee policy, but due to strengthened safety supervision and production restrictions in Shanxi, 2024H1 raw coal production fell 1.5% year-on-year. However, with the restoration of coal production in 2024Q2, the country achieved 1.16 billion tons of raw coal production, +1.1% year-on-year and +4.9% month-on-month. 2) Imports play a complementary role and maintain steady growth: Since Southern Port is far from the main domestic coal-producing regions, there is a rigid demand for imported coal, which may drive imports to maintain steady growth in the first half of 2024. The volume of imported coal and lignite reached 0.25 billion tons in 2024H1, +12.5%; in 2024Q2, the decline in domestic coal prices was greater than that of overseas coal prices. As the import price gap narrowed significantly, imports reached 0.134 billion tons, +11.3% year-on-year and +15.3% month-on-month. 3) Overall Q2 coal prices continued to fall: by coal type, ① the average price of thermal coal, 2024H1 Qingang (Q5500) thermal coal was 875 yuan/ton, -14%. Among them, Q2 or due to the increase in hydropower output due to excessive rainfall during the off-season electricity consumption, the average price of thermal coal in Qingang (Q5500) was 848 yuan/ton, -6% month-on-month, -7%; ② Coking coal, 2024H1, the average price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2251 yuan/ton, compared to +1% year on year; 2024Q2, the average price of main coking coal produced in Jingtang Port in Shanxi The average price of coking coal was 2,092 yuan/ton, -13% month-on-month and +8% year-on-year. 4) Operating conditions: The 2024H1 coal sector achieved operating income of 674.4 billion yuan, -9.6% YoY; realized net profit to mother of 78.1 billion yuan, or -26.8% YoY. The 2024Q2 production and marketing recovery hedged the downward pressure on some business performance. The coal sector achieved operating income of 335 billion yuan, -6.2% year-on-year and -1.3% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 37.4 billion yuan, -14.7% year-on-year and -8.2% month-on-month.
Thermal coal: coal prices continued to fall in the off-season, production and sales rebounded, and the decline in Q2 performance converged
In terms of thermal coal (including the anthracite sector), 2024H1 major thermal coal companies achieved operating income of 521.9 billion yuan, or -9%; the total realized operating cost was 412.1 billion yuan, -5% year over year, and the final gross margin of the thermal coal sector was -2.0pct year on year, achieving net profit of 70.7 billion yuan, or -21% year over year. Looking at the second quarter of a single quarter, production and sales of most thermal coal companies recovered, achieving operating income of 257.8 billion yuan, -7% year-on-year and -2% month-on-month. Second, it may mainly benefit from the decline in raw materials. Listed thermal coal companies achieved a total operating cost of 205.5 billion yuan, -4% year-on-year and -1% month-on-month. The final gross margin of the thermal coal sector was -0.4 pct year on year and -0.2 pct month on month, achieving net profit of 33.9 billion yuan to mother, -9% year-on-year and -8% month-on-month. In addition, several coal companies announced mid-term dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and Shanghai Energy, respectively, announced dividends of 10%/30%/30.56%, corresponding to dividend amounts of 1.06/2.94/0.14 billion yuan, respectively.
Coking coal: Demand is stable during the peak season, and the coal coke steel game continues. Performance declined but the decline subsided
In terms of coking coal: 2024H1 major coking coal companies achieved operating income of 117 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; achieved a total operating cost of 105.1 billion yuan, -4% year-on-year; the final gross margin of the coking coal sector was -4.4 pct year on year, achieving net profit of 9 billion yuan, or -45% year over year. Looking at the second quarter of the single quarter, due to the annual quantitative and quarterly pricing mechanism of the Coking Coal Association, the 2024Q2 Shanxi Coking Coal Changxie was lowered from 2024Q1 due to the continuous loss of downstream steel/coking companies. However, due to 2024Q2, most coking coal companies fixed month-on-month production to hedge the downward pressure on some operations, thus achieving operating income of 59.4 billion yuan, -3% year-on-year, and +3% month-on-month. In addition, it may be mainly due to an increase in safety expenses. The coking coal sector achieved a total operating cost of 53.9 billion yuan in 2024Q2, +2% year-on-year and +5% month-on-month. The final gross margin of the coking coal sector was -3.6 pct year on year, +0.2 pct month on month, achieving net profit of 4.2 billion yuan to mother, -34% year-on-year and -11% month-on-month.
Investment advice
At present, the coal sector is based on a healthy balance sheet, deterministic cash flow, and dividends, and its defensive properties are still prominent. Marginal allocation follows the following line of stock selection:
1) Long-term stable profit high quality leaders: China Shenhua (601088.SH,01088), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH);
2) Long-term integration of coal and electricity: new energy collection (601918.SH);
3) Combining offense and defense: Electricity Investment Energy (002128.SZ);
4) Higher odds: Shanmei International (600546.SH), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), Gansu Energy (000552.SZ);
5) Structural optimization focuses on relatively high standards: Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), Pingmei Co., Ltd. (601666.SH), and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ).
Risk warning
1. Risk of economic pressure affecting downstream demand; 2. There is a risk of unseasonal decline in coal prices or the coal sector due to external factors.
