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升能集团(02459)狂舞后的“溢出效应”:老闪崩股鸡犬升天?

The 'overflow effect' after the frenzy of Ascend Group (02459): Are the old broken stocks soaring?

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 5 18:01

It is not surprising that there are targets with similar situations of speculation following the hot money that dares to push up the Ascendas Group against the trend, given the temptation of high returns.

On the list of top gainers in the Hong Kong stock market on September 5th, a number of old "flash crash stocks" dominated.

Zhong Tong Financial APP noticed that Ascendas Group (02459), which occupied the leading position due to the flash crash on Tuesday, continued its strong rebound trend today. In early trading, Ascendas Group quickly rebounded after a low opening, with the maximum increase at one point approaching 70%. As of the close, the stock has risen 34.48% to HK $0.78, with the increase significantly falling back from the intraday high, but still ranking high on the list of gainers. On the previous trading day, Ascendas Group's closing gain was 78.46%.

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Perhaps influenced by the continuous violent rebound of Ascendas Group, the market hot money seems to be speculating on the "flash crash stocks". On September 5th, the stock price of Longhui International Holdings (01007) suddenly surged, with the stock price up over 30% close to the midday close. In the afternoon, the stock continued to rise strongly, closing at HK $0.25, with a significant increase of 60.26%.

In addition, the top gainers in today's list also include Newlink Tech (09600). The stock continued to rise after the opening, with the maximum increase during trading surpassing 70%, but the closing price has fallen back to 28.77%, at HK $0.47.

It is worth mentioning that when looking at the historical trends of the above stocks, one common characteristic is that all three have experienced a single-day sharp drop in stock price recently.

Taking Shengneng Group as an example, which has a relatively large market cap and high market attention, it experienced a sharp upward trend from May to August this year, with a maximum increase of more than 4 times. Short-term large gains can be considered a 'original sin' for companies with deteriorating fundamentals, not to mention that on September 2, Shengneng Group received a warning from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission about 'highly concentrated equity'. As expected, panic quickly spread after the opening on September 3, and on that day, the market value of Shengneng Group's stock fell by 98.4%, even forcing the liquidation of the 0.37 billion shares held by the controlling shareholder.

However, in the unpredictable stock market, the panic-induced sell-off often brings temporary oversold rebound opportunities. In the case of Shengneng Group, as of today's closing price, the company's stock price has rebounded by 457.1% from the low point on September 3. Considering the investors who suffered a significant loss due to the plunge two trading days ago, it can't help but make people feel the fickleness of the stock market.

Speaking of different situations in which hot money dares to push up Shengneng Group against the trend, it is not surprising that there are targets with similar speculative situations attracted by high returns.

Taking Longhui Holdings, which topped the gainers list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 5, as an example, although the company's market cap is only over 40 million Hong Kong dollars, its trend this year can be described as ups and downs. Starting from the end of March to July, the company experienced a one-sided upward trend, with the stock price surging from HK$0.59 per share to HK$4.74 per share, with a cumulative increase of more than 7 times in 4 months. Then there was a sudden change, and Longhui Holdings turned downward starting from July 29, and after continuous decline, it reached its 'climax' on August 7: on that day, the stock price of Longhui Holdings plunged within half an hour, with a decrease of 80%. After that, it fluctuated to find a bottom. By the close of that day, the stock price had fallen by 90.2%, with a turnover ratio of over 40%. The stock price retreated to HK$0.345, even lower than the price at the start of the trend.

For the rest of August, Longhui Holdings continued its downward trend with reduced trading volume, and reached HK$0.15 during intra-day trading on September 3, setting a new historical low for the stock price. However, today, there was a dramatic scene in which the stock price of Longhui Holdings surged on significant trading volume despite no obvious positive news.

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Considering the company's recently disclosed interim report, there are not many bright spots in the fundamentals of Longhui Holdings.

Public information shows that Longhui Holdings went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through a reverse merger in 2018. The company mainly operates 'Hui Brother Hot Pot' and 'Xiao Hui Brother Hot Pot' restaurants in China. Although it successfully realized its 'capital dream', the operating condition of Longhui Holdings has deteriorated after going public. In the first half of this year, the company's revenue decreased by 34.7% to 29.403 million yuan (RMB, same unit). While the revenue sharply declined, the company also fell into the trap of losses. Its net income during the period was -5.617 million yuan, further expanding the loss compared to the same period of the previous year (-2.325 million yuan).

As of the end of June, the number of restaurants under Longhui Holdings has fallen below double digits, with only 9 remaining. Considering that the factors constraining the recovery of the service industry economy still exist, and the consumption capacity of residents needs to be further improved, it can be expected that it is not easy for Longhui Holdings, which mainly targets the middle and high-income groups, to overcome the operational difficulties.

The lackluster performance in the past and the lack of growth expectations may be attributed to the speculative trading of active funds for the abnormal movement of Longhui Holdings' stock price today.

The situation of Newlink Tech is also very similar. According to the company's interim report disclosed earlier, the company's revenue in the first half of the year was 0.123 billion yuan, a slight increase of 4.2% year-on-year; however, the net profit for the same period significantly expanded to 55.418 million yuan. Although there are no significant highlights in performance, the stock price trend of Newlink Tech is quite "exciting": the company's stock price rose by 506.06% within one month in May this year, and then began to decline in mid-June, and plummeted by 80% at the end of August 28th, eventually giving back all the gains since May.

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Considering the above three targets, given that the performance of each company is in a downward trend and there are no substantial positive factors in the recent fundamentals, it is difficult for the author as a viewer to define the trend of these stocks today as a rebound by active funds after overselling.

Indeed, in the short term, due to factors such as excessive pessimism in shareholders' sentiment and technical oversold conditions, the targets after overselling often have certain speculative value, but the time window for this speculation is obviously beyond the grasp of ordinary investors. Taking a long-term perspective, the market is still a weighing machine, and the upward movement of stock prices ultimately needs to be supported by performance.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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