YONGTAIYUN CHEMICAL LOGISTICS(001228):1H24 RESULTS SLIGHTLY MISS; PROFIT RECOVERY STILL ON THE WAY
YONGTAIYUN CHEMICAL LOGISTICS(001228):1H24 RESULTS SLIGHTLY MISS; PROFIT RECOVERY STILL ON THE WAY
Trends to watch1H24 results slightly miss market expectations
1H24業績稍微低於市場預期
Yongtaiyun Chemical Logistics announced its 1H24 results: Revenue rose 73% YoY to Rmb1.85bn. Gross profit grew 10% YoY to about Rmb191mn. GM fell 6.3ppt YoY to 10.4%. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 40% YoY to around Rmb62mn, and attributable net margin fell 6.6ppt YoY to 3.3%, slightly missing market expectations, partially due to a YoY decline of about Rmb9mn in FX gains and a YoY increase of about Rmb26.8mn in provisions for credit impairment losses.
永泰雲化學物流公佈了其1H24業績：營業收入同比增長73%至18.5億元人民幣。毛利潤同比增長10%至約1.91億元人民幣。毛利潤率同比下降6.3個百分點至10.4%。淨利潤歸屬於股東同比下降40%至約6200萬元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利率同比下降6.6個百分點至3.3%，略低於市場預期，部分原因是外匯匯兌收益同比下降約900萬元人民幣，信用減值準備同比增加約2680萬元人民幣。
In 2Q24, revenue rose 76% QoQ and 116% YoY to Rmb1.18bn. Gross profit grew 27% QoQ and 21% YoY to Rmb107mn, and GM fell 3.5ppt QoQ and 7.2ppt YoY to 9.1%. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 21% QoQ and 58% YoY to Rmb27mn, and attributable net margin fell 2.8ppt QoQ and 9.6ppt YoY to 2.3%. In 2Q24, per-container revenue increased by 12% QoQ and 78% YoY to Rmb14,805. However, per-container gross profit declined by 20% QoQ and 1% YoY to Rmb1,343, and per-container profit dropped by 50% QoQ and 65% YoY to Rmb343.
在2Q24，營業收入環比增長76%，同比增長116%至11.8億元人民幣。毛利潤環比增長27%，同比增長21%至1.07億元人民幣，毛利潤率環比下降3.5個百分點，同比下降7.2個百分點至9.1%。淨利潤歸屬於股東環比下降21%，同比下降58%至2700萬元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利率環比下降2.8個百分點，同比下降9.6個百分點至2.3%。在2Q24，每箱收入環比增長12%，同比增長78%至14,805元人民幣。然而，每箱毛利潤環比下降20%，同比下降1%至1,343元人民幣，每箱利潤環比下降50%，同比下降65%至343元人民幣。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Industry demand has remained under pressure YTD; however, we expect the firm's container volume to maintain YoY growth due to the acquisition of high-quality assets. Due to weak overseas demand, the export value of organic and inorganic chemicals (in Rmb terms) fell 6% YoY in 1H24 and 4% YoY over January-July 2024. We believe that the recovery in industry demand is still underway. In 2Q24, the firm's total container volume increased 22% YoY. The cross-border chemical logistics supply chain services business rose 19% YoY, the warehousing and storage business increased 2% YoY, and the transportation business surged by 44% YoY, all of which outperformed the industry. We attribute this growth to the firm's integration of high-quality assets, such as Hunan Hongsheng Shipping and Hunan Xinhong Sheng Chemical. Looking ahead, we expect the firm's container volume to maintain YoY growth that exceeds the industry average. This is thanks to the capacity ramp-up of high-quality acquired assets, such as Yongtaiyun (Tianjin).
行業需求今年以來一直承壓，但由於高質量資產的收購，我們預計公司集裝箱吞吐量將保持同比增長。由於海外需求疲軟，有機和無機化學品（以人民幣計）的出口價值在1H24同比下降6%，在2024年1月至7月同比下降4%。我們認爲行業需求的復甦仍在進行中。在2Q24，公司的總集裝箱吞吐量同比增長22%。跨境化學品物流供應鏈服務業務同比增長19%，倉儲和儲運業務同比增長2%，運輸業務同比增長44%，所有業務均表現優異，超過行業平均水平。這一增長歸因於公司對湖南宏盛航運和湖南鑫宏盛化學等高質量資產的整合。展望未來，我們預計公司的集裝箱吞吐量將保持同比增長，超過行業平均水平。這要歸功於容量的擴張以及對永泰雲（天津）等高質量資產的充分利用。
Ocean freight rates rose in 1H24 due to tensions in the Red Sea and restocking of goods in the US and Europe, which we believe will support the firm's earnings improvement. Due to tensions in the Red Sea and restocking of goods in Europe and the US, supply and demand pressure on marine transportation eased. Consequently, ocean freight rates increased in 1H24, with the CCFI rising 19% and 53% YoY in 1Q24 and 2Q24, and surging 142% YoY in July. Despite uncertainties surrounding the tensions in the Red Sea and the sustainability of the restocking cycle, we believe the company's recovery in per-container profitability in 2024 is becoming increasingly apparent. If the company improves expense control and reduces the impact of bad debts in 2H24, we expect a stronger earnings recovery.
由於紅海地區緊張局勢和美國、歐洲商品重新補貨，海運費率在2024年上半年出現上漲，我們認爲這將支持公司盈利的改善。由於紅海地區的緊張局勢和歐美商品的重新補貨，海洋運輸的供需壓力得到緩解。因此，海洋運費率在2024年上半年上漲，CCFI在2024年1季度和2季度同比分別上漲了19%和53%，7月同比激增142%。儘管紅海地區緊張局勢和商品補貨週期的可持續性存在不確定性，但我們認爲公司在2024年每箱盈利能力的恢復正在日益顯現。如果公司改善費用控制並減少不良債務的影響，我們預計將會有更強勁的盈利恢復。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
As industry demand recovery is still on the way, we lower our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts 26% and 32% to Rmb154mn and Rmb185mn. The stock is trading at 11.5x 2024e and 9.6x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, as the firm is poised to benefit from industry consolidation in the long term as a leading firm in the industry. Given falling average sector valuation, we cut our TP 40% to Rmb20.5, implying 14x 2024e and 12x 2025e P/E, and offering 20% upside.
由於行業需求恢復仍處於進行中，我們將2024年和2025年的盈利預測下調26%和32%至1.54億元和1.85億元人民幣。該股票交易於2024年預估市盈率11.5倍和2025年預估市盈率9.6倍。我們維持一個超越市場預期的評級，因爲該公司作爲行業的龍頭企業在長期內將從行業整合中受益。鑑於板塊均價估值下降，我們將目標價下調40%至20.5元人民幣，對應2024年預估市盈率14倍和2025年預估市盈率12倍，上漲20%。
Risks
風險
Sharp decline in container shipping rates; weak demand for hazardous chemicals; progress of new projects disappoints.
集裝箱運輸費率大幅下降；對危險化學品需求疲軟；新項目進展令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
