July Job Openings Fall To 3-Year Lows, Gap With Unemployment Narrows To Near Parity: Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets
July Job Openings Fall To 3-Year Lows, Gap With Unemployment Narrows To Near Parity: Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets
Sectors recording the sharpest drop in job openings included:Employment vacancies in the United States dropped sharply in July, hitting the lowest level in over three years and signaling a significant cooling in the labor market.
美國的就業空缺在7月份大幅下降，達到三年多來的最低水平，表明勞動力市場出現了顯著的冷卻。
Job openings fell to 7.673 million in July, down from a downwardly revised 7.91 million in June, according to the latest official data Wednesday from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs).
根據本週三發佈的最新官方數據，7月份的職位空缺下降到767.3萬，低於6月份修正後的791萬。這些數據來自於職位空缺和勞動力流動調查(JOLTs)。
The number also came in well below market expectations of 8.1 million, adding to growing concerns about slowing employment growth.
這一數字遠低於市場預期的810萬，加劇了人們對就業增長放緩的擔憂。
Sectors recording the sharpest drop in job openings included:
記錄職位空缺大幅下降的行業包括：
- Health care and social assistance lost 187,000 positions.
- State and local government, excluding education, saw a reduction of 101,000 job openings.
- Transportation, warehousing and utilities experienced a decline of 88,000 jobs.
- 醫療保健和社會援助減少了18.7萬個職位。
- 州和地方政府（不包括教育）的職位空缺減少了10.1萬個。
- 運輸、倉儲和公用事業行業減少了8.8萬個職位。
On the other hand, professional and business services added 178,000 openings, while federal government roles grew by 28,000. The quits rate remained steady at 3.3 million in July.
另一方面，專業和商業服務行業新增了17.8萬個崗位，聯邦政府角色增加了2.8萬個。停職率在7月份保持穩定，爲330萬。
Traders are now keenly focused on additional labor market data ahead, including Thursday's ADP private payrolls report and Friday's official August employment figures.
交易員現在特別關注未來的勞動力市場數據，包括週四的ADP私人薪資報告以及週五的官方8月就業數據。
Job Vacancies Vs. Unemployment: Key Metric For Fed
職位空缺與失業：聯儲局的關鍵指標
The gap between job vacancies and unemployed workers narrowed significantly in July, with 7.1 million unemployed individuals now competing for 7.673 million job openings.
七月份職位空缺和失業人員之間的差距顯著縮小，現有710萬失業人員競爭着767.3萬個職位空缺。
This brings the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons to just above 1-to-1, the lowest level in over three years.
這使職位空缺與失業人數之比略高於1比1，爲三年來的最低水平。
This ratio is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as an indicator of labor market tightness, with implications for wage growth and inflation. A year ago, there were 1.4 job vacancies per unemployed person, and in March 2022, that figure was close to 2, reflecting a much tighter labor market.
這一比例是聯儲局密切關注的勞動力市場緊張程度指標，對工資增長和通脹產生影響。一年前，每個失業人員有1.4個職位空缺，而2022年3月，該數據接近2，反映出勞動力市場更爲緊張。
Market Reactions
市場反應
Markets had a muted reaction to the JOLTS report. The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), remained flat, while technology stocks, as represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ), edged 0.2% lower. Semiconductor stocks, tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX), also slipped by 0.4%.
市場對JOLTS報告反應平淡。標普500指數，由SPDR標普500ETF信託基金(NYSE:SPY)跟蹤，保持穩定，而以納斯達克指數基金第1系列 (NASDAQ:QQQ)代表的科技股下跌了0.2%。以iShares半導體ETF (NYSE:SOXX)跟蹤的半導體股也下跌了0.4%。
In contrast, bond markets rallied as Treasury yields fell by 6-7 basis points across the curve, reflecting rising expectations of rate cuts. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) gained 0.5% on the day.
相反，債券市場在國債收益率在各個期限上下跌6-7個點子的推動下出現了反彈，反映出對減息預期的增加。iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)當天上漲了0.5%。
The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) dropping 0.3%.
美元走弱，景順Db美元指數看好基金etf（紐交所：UUP）下跌0.3%。
Market-implied probabilities for the Federal Reserve's Sept. 18 meeting showed an almost even split between a 50-basis-point and 25-basis-point rate cut, with the chances of a deeper cut rising to 50%, up from 38% the day before, according to the CME Group's FedWatch data.
根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的FedWatch數據，聯儲局9月18日會議的市場隱含概率幾乎平分爲50個點子和25個點子的減息幅度，更深的減息概率上升至50%，較前一日的38%上升。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自Shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
