Banking Sector Remains Attractive After Solid Quarter Performance
Banking Sector Remains Attractive After Solid Quarter Performance
The banking sector has demonstrated solid performance in the second quarter of 2024 (2QCY24), with all ten stock coverages meeting expectations, except for MBSB, which fell short of consensus due to lower-than-anticipated impairment projections.
銀行板塊在2024年第二季度表現穩健，十家股票覆蓋的所有板塊均達到預期，僅MBSb未能達到共識，因爲低於預期的減值預測。
MIDF Research (MIDF) in a note today (Sept 4) said that most banks are shifting towards more profitable corporate-centric disbursements, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year increase.
MIDF研究（MIDF）在今天的一份報告中表示，大多數銀行正在轉向盈利更高的企業業務發放，反映出6.4%的年同比增長。
However, AMBANK, BIMB, and CIMB reported loan growth rates below the industry average at around 4%, as they prioritise selective asset yields.
然而，AMBANk，BIMb和CIMb報告的貸款增長率低於行業平均水平，約爲4%，因爲它們優先考慮選擇性資產收益。
As investors adjust their expectations for medium- to long-term bank fundamentals, MIDF noted that the potential for further re-rating appears limited. Banks' fundamental performances for FY25 have been largely factored into earnings models.
隨着投資者調整對中長期銀行基本面的預期，MIDF指出進一步提升估值的潛力似乎有限。銀行2025財年的基本表現已經在盈利模型中被充分考慮。
A review of the cost of equity (COE) revealed that some banks, such as AFFIN and BIMB, are experiencing lower volatility in share price movements compared to previous years.
對股本成本（COE）的回顧顯示，一些銀行，如AFFIN和BIMb，在股價波動方面經歷了較低的波動性，相比之前的幾年。
After analysing the banks' five-year Beta, MIDF said the majority average was found to be close to 0.9x. As a result, MIDF have lowered the applied Beta for most sector stocks by 5-20 basis points to align with their respective five-year averages. CIMB's Beta remains at 1.10x, while MBSB's is set at 0.80x as it undergoes a foundational rediscovery following its merger with MIDF. PBBANK maintains a Beta of 0.90x, reflecting its pre-COVID levels despite increased volatility.
在分析銀行的五年Beta值之後，MIDF表示，大多數的平均值接近0.9倍。因此，MIDF將大多數行業股票的Beta值下調了5-20個點子，以使其與各自的五年均值保持一致。CIMB的Beta值仍然是1.10倍，而MBSB的Beta值設定爲0.80倍，因爲在與MIDF合併後，它正在進行基礎性的重新發現。PBBANk的Beta值保持在0.90倍，反映出其在新冠疫情之前的水平，儘管波動性有所增加。
Target prices for the banks have improved between 4% and 22%, with ABMB re-rated to OUTPERFORM after previously being de-rated.
銀行的目標價位已提高了4%至22%，AMBANK在之前被降級後重新被評級爲OUTPERFORM。
The domestic market share for the ten listed local banks stands at 82.2%, up 21 basis points quarter-on-quarter. MAYBANK leads the market with an 18.4% share, bolstered by significant inflows into its mortgage books. In contrast, CIMB and AMBANK have lost market share due to their focus on optimising profitability.
十大上市本地銀行的國內市場份額環比增加了21個點子，達到82.2%。馬來銀行以18.4%的份額領先市場，受到其抵押貸款業務的大量流入的支持。相反，CIMB和AMBANK由於專注於優化盈利能力而失去了市場份額。
Looking ahead, banks have generally maintained their corporate guidance, with MAYBANK and RHBBANK slightly increasing their loan targets due to better year-to-date gains.
展望未來，由於年初至今的良好收益，馬來亞銀行和馬來亞銀行略微增加了貸款目標，銀行業整體保持了他們的企業指引。
The outlook for funding costs remains stable, as the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to keep the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% throughout 2024 and 2025.
資金成本的前景依然穩定，馬來西亞國家銀行（BNM）預計將在2024年和2025年保持隔夜政策利率在3.00%不變。
The banking sector remains attractive due to favorable economic conditions. However, there are concerns about excessive lending to meet market demand, which could expose banks to increased risks.
由於有利的經濟條件，銀行業仍然具有吸引力。然而，人們擔心爲了滿足市場需求而過度放貸，這可能會讓銀行面臨增加的風險。
MIDF recommended a cautious approach, with top picks being PBBANK and HLBANK, both leaders in gross impaired loans (GIL) supported by collateralized loans, particularly mortgages. RHBBANK is also favored for its dividend yields of approximately 7%, offering a buffer against potential capital downside while presenting opportunities for improved earnings in the latter half of FY24.
MIDF建議採取謹慎的態度，首選是PBBANK和HLBBANK，它們在擁有抵押貸款，特別是按揭貸款方面的總體壞賬率（GIL）方面是領先的。RHBBANK也因其約7%的股息收益率而備受青睞，可以在潛在資本下行壓力的情況下提供一定保護，併爲FY24的後半年提供盈利改善的機會。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。