政企数字化需求明确，公司主业有望稳中求进。随着生成式人工智能的出现，越来越多的行业开始应用大模型来提质增效，实现数字化升级。尽管受宏观经济的影响，公司主业增长有所放缓，但从中长期看，海内外政企数字化需求依旧明确：（1）G 端：在数字经济时代，政府愈发重视数智治理能力的提升，近年来国家在应急管理、智慧交通等领域加大财政支持力度；（2）B 端：Core conclusion: We predict that the company is expected to achieve net profit of 14.962 billion yuan, 17.317 billion yuan, and 19.985 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, corresponding to current PE of 16.38x, 14.15x, and 12.26x.
Maintain a “buy” rating.
The company is a leading enterprise in the field of intelligent IoT and actively empowers the digital transformation of the industry. At the beginning of its establishment, the company mainly developed and produced video compression boards. In the process of development, video technology was used as a starting point to continuously enrich IoT sensing capabilities. Currently, it has covered various fields of physical sensing technology in a relatively comprehensive manner. The company positions its business as “intelligent IoT AIoT” and actively empowers the digital transformation of various industries. At present, the company has covered a wide range of more than 500 segmented scenarios in more than 10 main industries and nearly 90 sub-industries.
The digitalization needs of government and enterprises are clear, and the company's main business is expected to advance steadily. With the advent of generative artificial intelligence, more and more industries are beginning to apply big models to improve quality and efficiency and achieve digital upgrades. Despite the macroeconomic impact, the growth of the company's main business has slowed, but in the medium to long term, the digital needs of domestic and foreign governments and enterprises are still clear: (1) G-side: In the digital economy era, the government is paying more and more attention to improving digital intelligence management capabilities. In recent years, the country has increased financial support in the fields of emergency management and smart transportation; (2) B-side:
In the current business environment, whether large enterprises or small and medium-sized enterprises, there is an urgent need to reduce costs and increase efficiency through digitalization to achieve high-quality development; (3) Overseas: Developing countries need to upgrade traditional industries through digitalization. We believe that the company has a perfect product layout and rich implementation experience in the government and enterprise market. If the digitalization process of the industry accelerates in the future, the company's main business is expected to advance steadily.
Innovative businesses have blossomed more and opened up space for the company to grow. At present, the company has incubated eight innovative business platforms: Fluorite Network, Hikvision Robotics, Hikvision, Hikang Auto Electronics, Hikvision Storage, Hikvision Fire, Hikang Ruiying, and Haikang Huiying. In recent years, the company's innovative business has shown a rapid growth trend. In 2019-2023, the company's innovation business revenue GAGR reached 43%; in 2024H1, the company's innovative business achieved revenue of 10.328 billion yuan, an increase of 26.13% over the previous year. The good development of innovative businesses continues to inject new impetus into the company's long-term sustainable development.
Risk warning: Macroeconomics falls short of expectations; risks brought about by geopolitics; development of technologies such as AIoT and artificial intelligence falls short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
