维持“增持” 评级。公司 2024年上半年实现营收48.31 亿元，同比上升28.33%；实现归母净利润6.44 亿元，同比下降9.56%；实现扣非归母净利润6.53 亿元，同比上升33.99%，公司业绩符合预期。维持公司2024-26 年归母净利润为14.72/16.75/18.86 亿元的预测，对应EPS 为1.51/1.71/1.93 元。考虑到同行业公司估值水平的下降，参考同类公司，给予公司2024 年16 倍PE 进行估值，下调公司目标价至24.16 元（原29.63 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's results for the first half of 2024 were in line with expectations. The company focuses on R&D, and revenue from high-end products is growing rapidly. The composite pipe business is rising rapidly, and alloy companies are starting to gain strength. We expect these businesses to continue to increase the company's performance.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 4.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 28.33% year on year; realized net profit of 0.644 billion yuan, down 9.56% year on year; realized net profit deducted from mother 0.653 billion yuan, up 33.99% year on year, and the company's performance was in line with expectations. Maintain the company's 2024-26 net profit forecast of 1.472/1.675/1.886 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.51/1.71/1.93 yuan. Considering the decline in the valuation level of companies in the same industry, referring to similar companies, the company was valued 16 times PE in 2024, and the company's target price was lowered to 24.16 yuan (originally 29.63 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
High-end product revenue is growing rapidly. The company continues to cultivate “high-precision” products. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials reached 1.057 billion, accounting for about 22% of revenue, an increase of 40% over the previous year. In the first half of the year, the company invested 0.186 billion yuan in R&D, an increase of 20.01% over the previous year. The company deepened innovation-driven development strategy and enhanced product technology content and market competitiveness.
The composite pipe business has been steadily improving, and production capacity has been further expanded. In the first half of 2024, the company's composite pipe revenue was 0.642 billion yuan, up 5335.05% year on year. The gross margin also changed from negative to positive, achieving a gross profit margin of 24.32% in the first half of the year. The composite pipe business developed rapidly after continuing to cultivate and acquire EBK, becoming a new growth point for the company's business. On June 18, 2024, the company announced that it plans to invest 0.376 billion yuan in the construction of high-performance pipe projects with an annual output of 0.02 million tons of nuclear energy and oil and gas. Further expansion of the company's production capacity is expected to contribute to performance growth in the future.
Alloy material products are starting to gain strength. In the first half of 2024, the company's alloy materials revenue was 0.345 billion yuan, up 177.42% year on year, and the gross profit margin of the alloy materials business was 23.75%, up 18.55 percentage points year on year. Jiuli Yongxing Alloy Co., Ltd. gradually entered the harvest period from the investment period. The overall output of the alloy company increased, which is expected to gradually contribute to the increase in performance.
Risk warning: Chemical demand has declined sharply, and raw material prices have fluctuated greatly.
