Introduction to this report:
The company is actively promoting the “winning element” strategy. New projects have exceeded expectations, the non-COVID-19 business is growing well, overseas production capacity continues to be implemented, optimistic about the company's long-term development, and maintains a “gain” rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 8.574 billion yuan (+1.0%), adjusted net profit of 2.545 billion yuan (-13.0%), and net profit to mother of 1.499 billion yuan (-33.9%), mainly due to the impact of high base and overseas layout investment during the same period; the gross profit margin was 39.07% (-2.9pct), which is a major order milestone revenue for the same period in 2023, and the impact of the decline in production capacity in Europe and the US. Taking into account geopolitical risks, adjusted net profit was lowered to 4.919/5.623/6.738 billion yuan (previously $5.03/6.062/7.467 billion), adjusted 2024-2026 EPS (adjusted net profit) to $1.18/1.35/1.62 (previously $1.18/1.42/1.75), and the target price was lowered to HK$14.6 (-5.9), corresponding to PE (adjusted net profit) 12X in 2024, maintaining the “gain” rating.
The number of new projects continues to grow, and non-COVID-19 businesses are developing steadily, maintaining the same guidelines for the full year of 2024. Looking at stages, pre-clinical project revenue was 3.068 billion yuan (+9.2%), after deducting the 2023H1 milestone revenue, up 20% year on year; early clinical project revenue was 1.893 billion yuan (-2.9%), which was less affected by 2023H1 new order projects. Current revenue (confirmed revenue is about 9-12 months), and 2024H2 is expected to improve; post-stage projects (phase III+commercialization) revenue is 3.434 billion yuan (-4.7%), of which non-COVID-19 business revenue increased At 11.7%, the growth momentum is good. 61 new projects were added to 2024H1. Previously, it was disclosed that 25 new projects were added as of March 22, 2024, and the number of new projects continues to grow. Uncompleted orders of US$20.1 billion, and uncompleted orders of approximately US$3.6 billion within three years are expected to support the growth of the company's performance. The company maintained its guidance for the full year of 2024 (the 2023 annual report gave guidance: revenue growth of 5%-10%, non-COVID-19 business growth of 8%-14%).
When overseas production capacity is increased and global operations are underway. In a dynamic geopolitical environment, revenue in the North American region increased 27.3% year over year, accounting for 58.4%; out of 742 projects, only one project was considered for transfer, and customer stickiness was outstanding. Half of the 61 new 2024H1 projects are from the US. It is expected that the three plants at the Irish base will complete their production capacity climb in 2025, and it is expected that 2025H1 will reach break-even. The company continues to increase overseas production capacity. It is estimated that in 2027, 40% of production capacity will be distributed in North America, Europe and Singapore to support global project operations.
Catalysts: Investment and financing improved; end customer demand exceeded expectations.
Risk warning: risk of changes in overseas policies; risk of foreign exchange fluctuations; geopolitical risk.