下调目标价至 15.4元，维持“增持”评级。考虑到市场竞争加剧，调整2024 年-2026 年EPS 预测为0.77（-0.04）/0.96（-0.06）/1.19（-0.06）元，同比-33%/+25%/+24%，考虑到公司与华为深度合作加速智能化进程，给予公司高于可比公司平均估值，给予公司2024 年20倍PE，下调目标价至15.4 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report, and the improvement in Q2 results exceeded expectations. In the future, the company will usher in a new model cycle and a stake in Huawei, which is expected to gradually improve sales and performance.
Key points of investment:
The target price was lowered to 15.4 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating. Taking into account the intensification of market competition, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was adjusted to 0.77 (-0.04) /0.96 (-0.06) /1.19 (-0.06) yuan, compared to -33%/+25%/+24%. Considering the company's deep cooperation with Huawei to accelerate the intelligent process, the company was given a higher than the average valuation of comparable companies, the company was given 20 times PE in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 15.4 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
Q2 results fell below the median forecast, which was a significant improvement over Q1. In 2024, H1 achieved revenue of 76.72 billion yuan, +17.2% year over year, realized net profit of 2.83 billion yuan, and realized net profit of 1.17 billion yuan without return to mother, -5.9% year on year. The performance fell below the median performance forecast. The sharp year-on-year decline in H1's performance was mainly due to the company's merger and acquisition of Deep Blue Motor during the same period confirming non-recurring profit and loss of 5.02 billion yuan. Q2 revenue was 39.7 billion yuan, +28.3% year over month, +7.2% month-on-month, net profit 1.67 billion yuan, +145.1% year-on-month, +44.5% month-on-month, net profit excluding non-return to mother of 1.06 billion yuan, a significant increase over the same period. The company's Q2 performance improved significantly compared to Q1.
Q2 The cost reduction results were remarkable, and the performance improved significantly. The Q2 gross profit margin was 13.2%, a year-on-month decline. It is expected mainly due to increased market competition. The Q2 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were -2.1pct/-1.1pct/-1.7pct/+0.0pct, respectively. The company's Q2 cost control effect was remarkable, and the cost ratio decreased significantly year-on-year during the period.
Avita's investment in Huawei is expected to help the Changan brand move forward. In August 2024, Avita Technology, a joint venture of Changan Automobile, signed an “Equity Transfer Agreement” with Huawei, agreeing that Avita Technology will purchase 10% of Huawei's shares, with a transaction amount of RMB 11.5 billion. This transaction will help Avita Technology gain more empowerment from Huawei and accelerate the upward strategy of the Changan Automobile brand.
Risk warning: the risk of worsening price wars, the risk of production capacity being limited, and the risk that the penetration rate of new energy sources falls short of expectations.