JOINN LABORATORIES(6127.HK):SIGNALS OF DEMAND RECOVERY IN 2Q24
JOINN LABORATORIES(6127.HK):SIGNALS OF DEMAND RECOVERY IN 2Q24
Expansion of overseas capabilities: The board of directors of Joinn has approved a capital injection of US$30mn into its wholly-owned US subsidiary, Joinn California. This move is intended to enhance service capacity for US clients in non-clinical research, facilitating the conversion of orders to domestic sites. In 1H24, Joinn's US operations secured new orders of ~RMB140mn, down ~42% YoY, which could be attributed to high utilization rates restricting new order intake at its US facilities.Joinn reported 1H24 revenue of RMB849mn, down 16.1% YoY, and recorded attributable recurring net loss of RMB198mn. The 1H24 revenue accounted for 36.5% of our full-year estimate, largely in line with its historical level. The bottom line was significantly affected by the RMB235mn fair value losses from biological assets, a non-operational, non-cash charge. The laboratory services, which represents the core business of Joinn, incurred a net loss of RMB15mn in 1H24, which has turned around with a net profit of RMB6mn in 2Q24.
Joinn報告了2024年上半年營業收入849億元人民幣，同比下降16.1％，並錄得歸屬於持續項下淨虧損1.98億元人民幣。上半年營收佔我們全年預期的36.5％，基本符合其歷史水平。底線受到了2.35億元人民幣生物資產公允價值損失的顯着影響，這是一項非經營、非現金費用。作爲Joinn的核心業務，實驗室服務在2024年上半年虧損1.5億元人民幣，但在2024年第二季度實現淨利潤600萬元人民幣，形勢扭轉。
Improving order signings indicating early signs of demand recovery. Despite the lasting pressure in the domestic biopharmaceutical industry in 1H24, Joinn exhibits early signs of a recovery in customer demand. The company signed new orders of ~RMB900mn in 1H24, a ~31% YoY decline. However, order signings in 2Q24 increased by approximately 20% QoQ to around RMB500mn, suggesting a stabilization in customer demand. Despite ongoing pricing pressures, the number of new orders recorded positive YoY growth in 1H24, particularly with ~20% YoY growth in 1Q24. As demand was still at a low level, Joinn's backlog decreased from RMB3.3bn as of end-2023 to RMB2.9bn as of mid-2024. Given Joinn has removed projects with low execution certainty from its backlog, the current backlog provides better predictability of future performance, in our view.
訂單簽約有所改善，表明需求開始恢復的早期跡象。儘管2024年上半年國內生物製藥行業面臨持續壓力，但Joinn顯示出客戶需求恢復的早期跡象。該公司在2024年上半年簽訂的新訂單約爲9億元人民幣，同比下降約31％。然而，2024年第二季度訂單簽約約增長20％環比，達到5億元人民幣左右，表明客戶需求趨於穩定。儘管面臨持續的定價壓力，Joinn的新訂單數量在2024年上半年錄得了積極的同比增長，尤其是在2024年第一季度實現了約20％的同比增長。由於需求仍處於低水平，Joinn的積壓訂單從2023年年底的33億元人民幣下降到2024年中期的29億元人民幣。鑑於Joinn已經從積壓訂單中刪除了執行確定性較低的項目，當前的積壓訂單可以更好地預測未來的績效，我們認爲如此。
Fair value changes of biological assets turned positive in 2Q24. Joinn experienced a stabilization of the value of its biological assets (primarily non- human primates/ NHPs), coinciding with recovery in customer demand. The trend has resulted in a fair value gain of RMB49mn in 2Q24, a significant improvement compared to the fair value losses of RMB284mn/ RMB267mn in 1Q24/ 2023. Joinn calculates the fair value changes of biological assets based on the market price changes, which reflect the supply and demand for NHPs. The substantial fair value losses incurred for Joinn in 2023 and 1Q24 was a result of the declining client demand for drug safety studies using NHPs. Hence, as a major player in domestic drug pre-clinical R&D sector, the fair value gains of biological assets of Joinn in 2Q24 indicated a modest improvement in client demand.
2024年第二季度，生物資產公允價值變動呈正值。Joinn的生物資產（主要是非人類靈長類動物/ NHP）的價值趨於穩定，與客戶需求恢復相一致。這一趨勢導致2024年第二季度公允價值增加4.9億元人民幣，相比於2024年第一季度和2023年的2.84億元人民幣和2.67億元人民幣的公允價值損失，有了顯著改善。Joinn根據市場價格的變動計算生物資產的公允價值變動，這反映了NHPs的供求關係。2023年和2024年第一季度Joinn遭受的大額公允價值損失是由於客戶對於使用NHP進行藥物安全性研究的需求下降。因此，作爲國內藥物臨床前研發領域的重要參與者，Joinn在2024年第二季度生物資產的公允價值收益表示客戶需求略有改善。
Expansion of overseas capabilities: The board of directors of Joinn has approved a capital injection of US$30mn into its wholly-owned US subsidiary, Joinn California. This move is intended to enhance service capacity for US clients in non-clinical research, facilitating the conversion of orders to domestic sites. In 1H24, Joinn's US operations secured new orders of ~RMB140mn, down ~42% YoY, which could be attributed to high utilization rates restricting new order intake at its US facilities.
擴大境外業務能力：Joinn的董事會批准向其全資美國子公司Joinn California注資3000萬美元。此舉旨在增強美國客戶的非臨床研究服務能力，促進訂單轉化至國內站點。在2024年上半年，Joinn的美國業務獲得了約1.4億元人民幣的新訂單，同比下降約42％，這可能歸因於高利用率限制了其美國設施的新訂單接納能力。
Maintain BUY. We revise our TP to HK$8.57 from HK$10.36, based on a 10- year DCF valuation with WACC of 14.3% and terminal growth of 2.0%, reflecting the lower earnings projections. We forecast Joinn's revenue to grow -12.0%/ +9.6%/ +17.1% YoY and adjusted net income to grow -63.3%/ +63.4%/ +59.3% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.
維持買入。我們將目標價從10.36港幣下調至8.57港幣，基於14.3%的加權平均資本成本率和2.0%的終端增長，反映了較低的盈利預期。我們預計Joinn的營業收入將分別在2024年至2026年增長-12.0% / +9.6% / +17.1%，調整後的淨利潤將分別在2024年至2026年增長-63.3% / +63.4% / +59.3%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
