MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):MORE POSITIVE FY25 AFTER 1H24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT
MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):MORE POSITIVE FY25 AFTER 1H24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price slightly from HK$3.00 to HK$2.80, based on 9x (prior 10x) our revised FY25E EPS to reflect the current market volatility. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than expected, especially for after-sales services, as well as a sector de-rating.Maintain BUY. Meidong Auto's 1H24 adjusted net profit beat our prior forecast on after-sales service GPM and SG&A reduction. We view its cost reduction efforts as impressive. Although we expect industrywide headwinds to continue, we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong's FY25 outlook given the removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden, traditional luxury brands' sales target cuts and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.
维持买入。美东汽车的2024年上半年调整后的净利润超出了我们之前的预测，主要得益于售后服务毛利和销售及管理费用的降低。我们认为其成本削减措施令人印象深刻。尽管我们预计行业整体面临的逆风将持续下去，但考虑到可转换债券（CB）负担的解除、传统豪华品牌的销售目标下调以及宝马新能源汽车模型的周期，我们相信投资者可能会对美东2025财年的前景抱有更乐观的态度。
Core earnings beat on cost reduction. Meidong's 1H24 adjusted net profit (excluding impairment without tax effect) of RMB124mn was RMB80mn higher than our prior forecast. Its 1H24 revenue was 11% lower than our forecast, mainly due to the sales volume miss. GPM of 7.6% was largely in line with our projection of 7.4%, as new-car GPM of -5.1% missed our forecast of -3.7% but after-sales service (including auto finance) GPM of 59.8% beat our forecast of 56.5%. SG&A expenses in 1H24 (RMB620mn) were about RMB160mn lower than our prior estimates.
核心盈利超出预期，主要得益于成本削减。美东2024年上半年调整后的净利润（不计税后减值）为1.24亿元人民币，比我们之前的预测高出8亿元人民币。其上半年营业收入比我们的预测低11%，主要是因为销量不及预期。毛利率为7.6%，与我们预期的7.4%基本符合，其中新车的毛利率为-5.1%，低于我们预测的-3.7%，但售后服务（包括汽车金融）的毛利率为59.8%，超出我们的预测56.5%。上半年销售及管理费用为人民币6.2亿元，比我们之前的估算低了约16亿元。
Less financial burden in FY25E. We maintain our views as a month ago: we expect 2H24 and FY25 to be better than 1H24 for Meidong in terms of profitability, despite continued gloomy new-car sales. We maintain our 2H24 new-car sales volume at around 29,500 units. We assume Meidong's new- car GPM to improve slightly to -3.8% in 2H24 and -3.4% in FY24 amid lowered sales targets by Porsche and BMW. We expect after-sales service revenue to fall 3% YoY in FY25 amid weak economic situation. It appears to us that key to Meidong's earnings sustainability now lies in after-sales GPM. We project after-sales GPM to narrow 1.2ppts YoY to 58.5% in FY25. All combined would result in a gross profit lift of RMB100mn YoY in FY25. We also estimate CB interest expense and withholding tax to reduce by RMB120mn YoY in FY25. We assume impairment on goodwill to be both RMB50mn for 2H24 and FY25, respectively, with the previous patterns. Accordingly, we cut our FY24E net profit by 28% to RMB122mn and raise our FY25E net profit by 6% to RMB382mn.
2025财年财务负担较轻。与一个月前相比，我们维持了相同观点：我们预计美东的2024年下半年和2025财年的盈利情况将好于上半年，尽管新车销量走势仍然黯淡。我们认为美东下半年的新车销量将维持在约2.95万辆左右。我们预计美东新车的毛利率将在2024年下半年略有改善，为-3.8%，2024财年为-3.4%，而宝马和保时捷的销售目标下调。预计由于经济疲软，2025财年售后服务收入将同比下降3%。在我们看来，美东盈利的关键现在在于售后服务毛利率。我们预计2025财年售后服务毛利率将同比减少1.2个百分点，至58.5%。所有这些将导致2025财年毛利增加1亿元人民币。我们还估计可转债利息支出和预提税金在2025财年将同比减少1.2亿元人民币。我们假设商誉减值在2024年下半年和2025财年分别为5千万元，与之前的模式一致。因此，我们下调了2024财年的净利润28%，至1.22亿元人民币，将2025财年的净利润上调了6%，至3.82亿元人民币。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price slightly from HK$3.00 to HK$2.80, based on 9x (prior 10x) our revised FY25E EPS to reflect the current market volatility. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than expected, especially for after-sales services, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要风险。我们维持买入评级，但基于我们修订后的FY25E每股收益的9倍（之前为10倍）稍微降低了目标价至HK$2.80（原为HK$3.00），以反映目前的市场波动。我们评级和目标价的主要风险包括销售额和/或毛利率低于预期，特别是售后服务，以及板块评级降低。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。