POSTAL SAVINGS BANK OF CHINA(1658.HK):2Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH REMAINED NEGATIVE
POSTAL SAVINGS BANK OF CHINA(1658.HK):2Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH REMAINED NEGATIVE
NIM declined in 1H24. Net interest income increased 1.8% YoY in 1H24, mainly due to the decline in net interest margin (NIM). We noted that its NIM reached 1.91% at end June 2024 and 1.92% at end March 2024, down 10bps and 9bps from end December 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 13bps in 2024.Postal Savings Bank of China's (PSBC) attributable net profit declined 1.7% YoY in 2Q24 after decreasing 1.3% YoY in 1Q24, lower than our expectation, mainly due to weak growth in operating income, decline in NIM and increase in operating expense. Its operating income decreased 0.1% YoY in 1H24 after increasing 1.4% YoY in 1Q24. Despite the negative growth in operating income, its operating expense increased 4.2% YoY in 1H24. PSBC maintained outstanding asset quality in 1H24 as its NPL ratio might be still at the lowest level among peers while its allowance to NPL was at the high-end level. As of end June 2024, its loan-to-deposit ratio reached 56.7%, which might be still at the lower end of banking sector. As of end June 2024, its loans/deposits increased 6.4%/4.8% from end 2023.
郵儲銀行 (PSBC) 2024年2季度歸屬淨利潤同比下降1.7%，而2024年1季度同比下降1.3%，低於我們的預期，主要是因爲營業收入增長乏力，淨利息收益率下降和營業支出增加。其2024年上半年營業收入同比下降0.1%，而2024年1季度同比增長1.4%。儘管營業收入呈負增長，其營業支出在2024年上半年同比增加4.2%。郵儲銀行在2024年上半年保持出色的資產質量，其不良貸款比例可能仍然處於同行中最低水平，而不良貸款撥備率則處於高位。截至2024年6月底，其貸款存款比率達到56.7%，可能仍處於銀行業板塊較低水平。截至2024年6月底，其貸款/存款相較於2023年年末增長了6.4%/4.8%。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Outstanding asset quality maintained in 1H24. Its NPL ratio reached 0.84% at end June 2024, against 0.84% at end March 2024 and 0.83% at end December 2023. Its NPL ratio remained at the lowest level among peers in 1H24. Its allowance to NPLs reached 325.6% at end June 2024, against 326.9% at end March 2024 and 347.6% at end December 2023. We expect its NPL to stay at 0.84% in 2024.
2024年上半年保持出色的資產質量。其不良貸款比例在2024年6月底達到0.84%，較2024年3月底的0.84%和2023年12月底的0.83%持平。其不良貸款比例在2024年上半年保持在同行中最低水平。其不良貸款撥備率在2024年6月底達到325.6%，較2024年3月底的326.9%和2023年12月底的347.6%略有下降。我們預計其2024年不良貸款比例將保持在0.84%。
NIM declined in 1H24. Net interest income increased 1.8% YoY in 1H24, mainly due to the decline in net interest margin (NIM). We noted that its NIM reached 1.91% at end June 2024 and 1.92% at end March 2024, down 10bps and 9bps from end December 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 13bps in 2024.
2024年上半年淨利息收益率下降。2024年上半年，淨利息收益率增長了1.8%，主要是由於淨利息收益率下降。我們注意到，2024年6月底其淨利息收益率爲1.91%，較2024年3月底的1.92%下降了10個點子和9個點子。我們預計其2024年淨利息收益率將下降13個點子。
Fee and commission income dropped in 1H24. Its net fee and commission income decreased 16.7% YoY in 1H24 after declining 18.2% in 1Q24. As of end December 2023, the balance of total assets under management (AUM) from retail customers reached about RMB16.23trn, up 6.5% YTD.
2024年上半年佣金及手續費收入下降。其淨佣金手續費收入2024年上半年同比下降16.7%，而2024年1季度同比下降18.2%。截至2023年12月底，零售客戶管理的總資產餘額約爲16.23萬億元人民幣，同比增長6.5%。
Valuation
估值
Its H shares are now trading at 0.45x 2024E P/B, which is undervalued. We believe the bank should be trading at a higher P/B valuation, thanks to its outstanding asset quality and higher earnings growth potential. We decreased our target price from HK5.70 to HK$5.69, based on about 0.6x 2024E P/B. Maintain BUY rating.
該行H股當前交易價格爲2024年預測市淨率的0.45倍，被低估了。由於其出色的資產質量和較高的盈利增長潛力，我們相信該銀行的市淨率估值應該更高。我們將目標價從5.70港元降至5.69港元，基於大約2024年預測市淨率的0.6倍。維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。