On September 2nd, the shipping index futures fell across the board. The main contract of the European shipping index futures (hereinafter referred to as the European shipping index) fell by 10% at one point during the day, and as of the writing, it had fallen by 9.31%, to 2128.2 points.

Since July 11th, the main contract of the shipping index (European shipping) futures has entered a deep adjustment, with a cumulative decline of up to 62% so far.

Under the sharp decline in prices of the European shipping index futures, most of the AH stock shipping stocks have fallen.

As of the writing, A-shares have fallen by over 4% for COSCO Shipping Development, nearly 3% for China Merchants Energy Shipping, and followed by Phoenix Shipping and COSCO Ship Energy.

In the Hong Kong stock market, COSCO Shipping Development fell by over 4%, Ever Harvest GP fell by over 3%, and COSCO Shipping Group and Liaoning Port fell one after another.

Shipping companies announced large-scale suspension of sailing before the Golden Week.

According to an article from The Loadstar on August 30, due to concerns about another sharp drop in container spot freight rates, many shipping companies have canceled a large number of export flights from Asia to Europe and Asia to the United States before the Golden Week in early October.

A carrier said that he expects to see "more" cancellations during the key weeks of the off-season when demand is weak, in order to avoid a repeat of the rate war; and believes that as long as the Red Sea diversion continues and the market remains stable, this strategy can ride out market fluctuations smoothly.

Drewry's latest assessment of cancelled flights shows that the cancellation rate of scheduled flights across the Pacific, Asia-Europe, and transatlantic routes in September is currently at 10%.

It is reported that in the next five weeks, THE Alliance has announced the cancellation of 17 sailings, followed by Ocean Alliance and 2M Alliance, which have announced the cancellation of 12 and 10 sailings, respectively.

Drewry stated that so far, 51% of the notified canceled flights are on trans-Pacific routes, 28% on Asia-Europe routes, and 21% on transatlantic routes.

According to foreign media reports, a "rate war" is taking place on the Asia to US West Coast route. New shipping companies that have just joined the trans-Pacific route are lowering prices to attract customers and forcing established shipping companies to reduce rates to retain customers.

In addition, the latest data on September 2nd showed that the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August rose to 50.4%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Sub-sector data shows that manufacturing activity has returned to expansion, but external demand has contracted for the first time this year.

Economic data from Europe and the United States in July was weaker than expected, indicating a continued decline in global restocking momentum.

Analysts: Container freight rates will decrease by 70%.

Since early August, the rapid decline in freight rates has exceeded market expectations, and the market generally expects the speed of this year's freight rate decline to be similar to that of 2022.

Recently, the shipping consultancy firm Linerlytica stated that it expects a 70% decrease in freight rates over the next 12 months, as statistical data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) shows that shipping companies have been unable to stop the decline in freight rates since July.

Linerlytica reported, "Although the decline is not as severe as the sharp drop in freight rates at the end of 2022, the current freight futures prices are expected to continue to decline over the next 12 months, and it is expected that there will be no rebound by the end of this year, nor will there be a repeat of the freight rate increase seen after the Chinese New Year in 2025."

However, Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, believes that the prior condition for a 70% price decline would be the resolution of the Red Sea crisis and the resumption of trade through the Suez Canal by vessels.