维持“增持”评级。公司 2024 年上半年实现营收 5.45 亿元，同比上升5.38%；实现归母净利润0.47 亿元，同比下降1.4%，公司业绩略低于预期。考虑到公司新增产能进度不及预期，下调公司2024-25年归母净利润预测为1.08/1.56 亿元（原1.58/1.94 亿元），新增2026年归母净利润预测为1.69 亿元，对应EPS 为0.33/0.47/0.52 元。考虑到行业整体估值水平的下移，参考同类公司，给予公司2024 年30倍PE 进行估值，下调公司目标价至9.9 元（原12.2 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's results for the first half of 2024 fell slightly short of expectations. The company's operations are stable and downstream demand is good. It is expected that the company's performance will gradually be released as additional production capacity is put into operation.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 0.545 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 5.38% year on year; realized net profit of 0.047 billion yuan, down 1.4% year on year, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering that the company's progress in adding production capacity fell short of expectations, the company's net profit forecast for 2024-25 was lowered to 0.108/0.156 billion yuan (originally 0.158/0.194 billion yuan), and the net profit forecast for 2026 was 0.169 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.33/0.47/0.52 yuan. Considering the decline in the overall valuation level of the industry, referring to similar companies, the company was valued 30 times PE in 2024, and the company's target price was lowered to 9.9 yuan (originally 12.2 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Operations are stable, and downstream demand remains strong. In the first half of 2024, the company's deformed superalloy revenue was 0.291 billion yuan, up 12.63% year on year; cast superalloy revenue was 0.153 billion yuan, down 3.41% year on year, and the company's operations were relatively stable. Demand for superalloy downstream chemicals, energy, etc. is booming, and the industry still has a large supply and demand gap. With the continuous advancement of domestic technology, high-end superalloy products will gradually reduce their dependence on imports, and the development prospects of the superalloy industry will be broader.
The structure is continuously optimized and driven by continuous R&D. The company continues to expand into high-end materials and high-end markets, and continuously step up new product development and product structure adjustments. In the first half of 2024, the company's share of cobalt-based, nickel-based and other high-end high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloy materials increased by 17.61% compared to the same period in 2023. In the first half of 2024, the company's gross sales margin was 20.06%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points over the previous year. Through R&D investment, the company's profitability continued to rise.
New production capacity continues to advance, and it is expected that it will gradually be implemented. According to the company's investor relations records, the company's Jiangsu Xinzhongzhou Phase II project is undergoing trial production, and some of the processes have already been put into operation. It is expected that as the company's new production capacity is put into operation, the company's output and performance expectations will continue to be released.
Risk warning: The commissioning of new production capacity falls short of expectations, and market development risks.
