24H1 境外收入同比+7.4%，运费成本下降带来盈利能力提升。公司24H1 实现收入/ 归母净利润/ 扣非归母净利润13.67/3.47/3.29 亿元， 同比分别+2.61%/+28.8%/+25.98%。24Q2 公司实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为7.35/1.82/1.71 亿元，同比分别+0.18%/+6.08%/+1.96%。24H1 公司毛利率/净利率分别为46.51%/25.36%，同比分别+5.79pct/+5.16pct，毛利率增长主要系本期销售结转成本相关的海运成本下降。24H1 境内外收入分别为0.74/12.9亿元，同比分别-42.7%/+7.4%，境内收入有一定幅度下滑。Matters:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report: 24H1 achieved revenue of 1.367 billion yuan, +2.61% year over year; realized net profit of 0.347 billion yuan to mother, +28.8% year over year.
Commentary:
24H1 overseas revenue was +7.4% year-on-year, and lower freight costs led to increased profitability. The company 24H1 achieved revenue/ net profit attributable to mother/ net profit net profit of 1.367/0.347/0.329 billion yuan, +2.61%/+28.8%/+25.98% year-on-year, respectively. 24Q2, the company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to mother/net profit after deduction of 0.735/0.182/0.171 billion yuan respectively, +0.18%/+6.08%/+1.96% year-on-year, respectively. 24H1's gross margin/net margin was 46.51%/25.36% respectively, +5.79pct/+5.16pct, respectively. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to a decrease in shipping costs related to sales carry-over costs in the current period. 24H1 domestic and foreign revenue was 0.074/1.29 billion yuan respectively, -42.7%/+7.4% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic revenue declined by a certain margin.
The sales expense ratio (same caliber) has increased, and the increase in the financial expense ratio is mainly due to a decrease in exchange earnings.
2024H1's sales/management/R&D/finance expense rates were 13.07%/5.86%/1.85%/-3.13%, respectively, -0.85pct/+0.36pct/-0.19pct/+0.96pct, respectively. According to the “Compilation 2024 of the Application Guidelines for Corporate Accounting Standards” issued by the Ministry of Finance in March 2024, it is stipulated that guarantee fees should be included in operating costs, and the company 24H1 will include 0.025 billion yuan of guaranteed warranty expenses in the main business costs, causing a decrease in the sales expense ratio; if the sales expenses in 2023 are reduced by 0.023 billion yuan in the same caliber, the corresponding 24H1/23H1 sales expense ratio is 13.1%/12.2%, respectively, and the 24H1 sales expense ratio is +0.9%. This is due to an increase in employee pay. Financial expenses of 24H1 increased by 11.69 million yuan year-on-year compared to 23H1, mainly due to an increase of 21.72 million yuan in 24H1 interest income and a decrease of 30.45 million yuan in exchange earnings.
Regardless of the impact of changes in standards, Q2 gross margin basically remained at the Q1 level. The gross margin for 24Q1/24Q2 was 48.15%/45.09%, respectively. The table shows that Q2 gross margin declined month-on-month compared to Q1. If 24H1's 0.025 billion guaranteed warranty fee is excluded to calculate the main business cost, 24H1's gross profit margin was 48.4%, and the gross margin remained at the Q1 level in the first half of the year. The net profit margin for the Q2 quarter was 24.8%, a slight decrease of 1.3 pct from Q1, mainly due to the increase in sales expenses and financial expense ratios.
The proportion of refrigeration equipment has been further increased, and the product structure has been further optimized. 24H1's refrigeration/buffet/western kitchen equipment achieved revenue of 1.014/0.071/0.214 billion yuan respectively, up 3.5%/-10.2%/-10.1% year on year, accounting for 74.2%/5.24%/15.72% of revenue respectively, and 24H1 refrigeration equipment accounted for +0.73 pct year on year. In terms of profitability by product, the gross margin of 24H1 refrigeration/ buffet/ Western kitchen equipment was 48.7%/34.1%/44.4%, respectively, with refrigeration equipment having the highest gross margin.
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.935/3.304/3.718 billion yuan, respectively, up +10.6%/+12.5% year-on-year; considering the increase in freight rates and exchange rate changes in the first half of 2024, we have appropriately lowered our net profit forecast to mother. We expect net profit to mother for 2024-2026 to be 0.667/0.782/0.905 billion yuan, respectively (previous forecasts were 0.687/0.806/0.932, respectively) billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 30.5%/17.3%/15.8%, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, considering the company's high share of independent brands and broad industry space, the market share is expected to increase; global channel expansion brings additional growth; the growth curve of new products is expected to improve; if the french fries robot passes further verification, the company is given a certain valuation premium, giving the company 26 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 40.82 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuations, exchange rate fluctuations, new product market progress falling short of expectations, inventory management risks.
