新造船价格持续上行，公司手持订单金额增长。根据克拉克森，截至2024 年8 月23 日，新造船价格指数达188.83 点，较2024 年初上涨5.87%，较2021 年初上涨50.42%，当前新造船价格指数恢复比例已达到99%，但考虑期间通胀后价格恢复比例仅71%。据中报，公司累计手持民船订单322 艘/2362.18 万载重吨/1996.39 亿元，此前我们参考克拉克森估算的手持订单金额为271 亿美元，与公司披露值接近。Key points of investment:
Event: China Shipbuilding released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1's revenue was 36.017 billion yuan, +18.0% year over year, net profit attributable to mother was 1.412 billion yuan, +155.3% year over year, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 1.198 billion yuan, which changed from negative to positive year. 2024Q2's revenue was 20.746 billion yuan, -3.42% year over year, net profit to mother was 1.011 billion yuan, +98.43% year over year, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.86 billion yuan, which changed from negative to positive year, and +154.14% month over month. The interim results were close to the median of the pre-increase announcement (1.35 billion-1.5 billion), in line with expectations.
Delivery: High-price orders gradually entered an intensive delivery period, and the corresponding steel price cost was lower than in the same period. According to the interim report, the company delivered 48 civilian ships/4.035 milliondwt in the first half of the year, an increase of 10 ships/ 3.2% over the previous year, and the tonnage completed 59.9% of the annual plan. According to Clarkson, the company's four holding shipyards delivered a total of 22 civilian ships/0.7857 millionCGT in 2024Q2. Except for one LNG ship, the rest of the contract signing period is from March 2021 to November 2022. 2024Q3 is expected to deliver 19 civilian ships/0.6844 millionCGT, and the signing period is March 2021 to November 2022. Revenue side: The price increase in this round began in Q1 in 2021. The delivery ratio of high-priced orders signed after 2021H2 was 3%, 18%, 50%, and 80% for 2023H1, 2023H2, 2024H1, and 2024H2, respectively, and the proportion of high-priced orders gradually increased. Cost side: Steel purchased 1.5 years before order delivery is reversed. The average steel price for 2024 delivery orders is 20% lower than the 2023 delivery order. Orders with high steel prices and low shipping prices have basically been delivered, revenue costs have improved in both directions, and profit flexibility has been verified.
New shipbuilding prices continued to rise, and the company's on-hand order amount increased. According to Clarkson, as of August 23, 2024, the new shipbuilding price index reached 188.83 points, up 5.87% from the beginning of 2024 and 50.42% from the beginning of 2021. Currently, the recovery rate of the new shipbuilding price index has reached 99%, but the price recovery rate after the inflation period is only 71%. According to the interim report, the company has ordered a total of 322 portable civilian ships/23.6218 million DWT/199.639 billion yuan. Previously, we estimated that the handheld order amount was 27.1 billion US dollars with reference to Clarkson, which is close to the value disclosed by the company.
Civilian ship deliveries and revenue have entered the upward channel. According to Clarkson, Chinese ships' deliveries of civilian ships in 2024 (weighted caliber) are expected to increase by about 16% year on year, and civil ship revenue (weighted caliber) is expected to increase by about 27% year on year. Its subsidiary Jiangnan Shipbuilding, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Chengxi, Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, and Huangpu Wenchong are expected to deliver 52%, +2%, +27%, -17%, and -6% year-on-year, while civil shipbuilding revenue is expected to be +74%, -1%, +58%, -5%, and +4% year-on-year.
According to the semi-annual report, the net profits of Jiangnan Shipbuilding, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, CSSC Chengxi, Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, and Huangpu Wenchong in the first half of 2024 were 3.00, 6.72, 0.182, 0.153, and 0.084 billion yuan, respectively.
The new order was green, high-end and batch, and undertook the world's first batch of ULECs, highlighting the strong technical strength of Chinese shipbuilding.
According to the semi-annual report, the company received orders for 109 ships/8.5577 million DWT/68.425 billion yuan in the first half of the year. The tonnage increased by 38.21% year on year. Among them, green ships accounted for more than 50%, middle and high-end ships accounted for more than 70%, and batch orders accounted for more than 70%.
The shipbuilding and shipping boom resonates, and the industry is still in an upward phase. Shipyard production capacity is tight, and factors such as aging fleets and environmental pressure still exist. The demand side of the shipbuilding industry resonates with the shipping boom, and shipowners' willingness to place orders has increased. Since the previous cycle, shipyard production capacity has been fully cleared, and production capacity is difficult to expand rapidly in the short term. The supply pressure trend has not changed, and the cycle is still in an upward phase. Continuously verify our view that the previous shipbuilding upward cycle “stands at the starting point of the new shipbuilding cycle 2021-2038”.
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain buying ratings. The company's 2024E-2026E net profit forecast is 5.6, 10.7, and 12.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 30/16/14 times, respectively. The current PO valuation (market capitalization order ratio) is 0.93, which is more than 1.5 times more room than the boom cycle. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New orders for civilian ships fell short of expectations; implementation of carbon emission reduction policies in the shipping industry fell short of expectations; shipping sentiment declined; steel prices rose sharply, RMB appreciated sharply, and competition in the industry intensified due to the entry of Southeast Asian countries.
