BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE; CASH FLOWS STRO
BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE; CASH FLOWS STRO
Trends to watch1H24 results in line with our expectations
1H24的業績符合我們的預期
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (BJ-SH HSR) announced its 1H24 results: Revenue rose 8.2% YoY to Rmb20.86bn; gross profit grew 16.3% YoY to Rmb9.89bn, with GM rising 3.3ppt YoY to 47.4%; and attributable net profit increased by 23.8% YoY to Rmb6.36bn. The company's results in 1H24 were in line with our expectations.
京滬高鐵宣佈其1H24業績：營業收入同比增長8.2%，達到208.6億元人民幣；毛利潤同比增長16.3%，達到98.9億元人民幣，毛利率同比提高3.3個百分點，達到47.4%；歸屬於母公司的淨利潤同比增長23.8%，達到63.6億元人民幣。該公司1H24的業績符合我們的預期。
In 2Q24, revenue increased by 4.0% YoY and 6.4% QoQ to Rmb10.76bn; gross profit rose 10.8% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to Rmb5.22bn; GM grew 3.0ppt YoY and 2.3ppt QoQ to 48.5%; and attributable net profit increased by 16.6% YoY and 14.5% QoQ to Rmb3.39bn.
在2Q24，營業收入同比增長4.0%，環比增長6.4%，達到107.6億元人民幣；毛利潤同比增長10.8%，環比增長11.7%，達到52.2億元人民幣；毛利率同比提高3.0個百分點，環比提高2.3個百分點，達到48.5%；歸屬於母公司的淨利潤同比增長16.6%，環比增長14.5%，達到33.9億元人民幣。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Company's passenger transport volume remained stable; railway network service turnover increased steadily. In 1H24, passenger transport volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway slid 1.1% YoY; and turnover of railway network service increased by 7.9% YoY. In 2Q24, the YoY growth rates of the passenger turnover slowed due to a slower growth in total passenger volume in China: data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the passenger turnover of railways in China increased by 24.2% YoY in 1Q24 (thanks to a low base in 1Q23) and rose 5.4% YoY in 2Q24 (down 3.1% QoQ). In addition, passenger turnover of railways declined by 3.2% YoY in July.
京滬高鐵的客運量保持穩定；鐵路網絡服務營業額穩步增長。在1H24，京滬高鐵的客運量同比下滑1.1%；鐵路網絡服務的營業額同比增長7.9%。在2Q24，由於中國總體客運量增長放緩，京滬高鐵的客運量同比增速放緩：國家統計局（NBS）的數據顯示，中國鐵路的客運量在1Q24同比增長24.2%（得益於1Q23的低基數），在2Q24同比增長5.4%（環比下降3.1%）。此外，7月份鐵路的客運量同比下降3.2%。
Jingfu Anhui almost reached the breakeven point in 1H24. The turnover volume by Jingfu Anhui increased by 10.5% YoY. In 1H24, revenue of Jingfu Anhui increased by 10.1% YoY to Rmb2.96bn; and Jingfu Anhui incurred a loss of Rmb148mn (down 74% YoY and down by Rmb421mn).
京福安徽在1H24幾乎達到盈虧平衡點。京福安徽的營業額同比增長10.5%。在1H24，京福安徽的營業收入同比增長10.1%，達到29.6億元人民幣；京福安徽淨虧損1.48億元人民幣（同比下降74%，減少4.21億元人民幣）。
Cash flows strong; financial expenses declined substantially. In 1H24, the company's operating cash flow reached Rmb10.32bn, and it net repaid around Rmb10bn loans. In 1H24, financial expenses dropped by 27.5%, as interest-bearing liabilities declined.
現金流充裕；財務費用大幅下降。在1H24，該公司的經營現金流達到103.2億元人民幣，並償還了約100億元的貸款。在1H24，財務費用下降27.5%，因爲利息負債減少。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We cut our attributable net profit forecasts 3.7% to Rmb13.77bn (+19.3% YoY) for 2024 and 6.3% to Rmb15.25bn (+10.8% YoY) for 2025, as the growth of passenger volume of railways in China has slowed since 2Q24. The stock is trading at 19.4x 2024e and 17.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of Rmb6.14/sh. Our TP implies 21.9x 2024e and 19.8x 2025e P/E, offering 13.1% upside.
我們將2024年歸屬於股東的淨利潤預測下調3.7%至137.7億元（同比增長19.3%），2025年下調6.3%至152.5億元（同比增長10.8%），因爲中國鐵路的客運量增長自2024年第二季度以來放緩。該股票的2024年預測市盈率爲19.4倍，2025年預測市盈率爲17.5倍。我們維持超越市場的評級，並將目標價設定爲6.14元/股。我們的目標價暗示2024年預測市盈率爲21.9倍，2025年預測市盈率爲19.8倍，提供13.1%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Operation of trains on railways other than the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway disappoints; passenger traffic being diverted to new routes.
其他鐵路線的列車運行令人失望；乘客流量正在轉向新線路。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
