XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
As you might know, XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000425) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥25b revenues missing by 10%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.17 falling short of forecasts by some -19%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
正如你所知,徐工機械股份有限公司(SZSE:000425)上週發佈了最新的季度報告,對股東來說並不是一個好消息。收益遠遠低於分析師的預期,250億元人民幣的營業收入低於預期的10%,每股收益爲0.17元人民幣,比預期低了19%。這對投資者來說是一個重要的時刻,他們可以通過報告追蹤公司的業績,查看專家對明年的預測,並看看業務的預期是否有所變化。我們收集了最新的統計預測,以查看分析師在這些結果發佈後是否改變了他們的盈利模型。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from XCMG Construction Machinery's nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥98.3b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 7.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 20% to CN¥0.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥101.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.56 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
考慮到最新的結果,徐工機械九位分析師的共識是,2024年營收爲983億元人民幣。這將反映出過去12個月其營業收入的適度增長7.8%。預計每股收益將增長20%至0.55元人民幣。在這份報告公佈之前,分析師們曾預測2024年的營業收入爲1010億元人民幣,每股收益爲0.56元人民幣。儘管其每股收益預期沒有變化,但共識似乎有點更爲悲觀,他們在最新結果發佈後削減了營收預測。
The average price target was steady at CN¥7.40even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on XCMG Construction Machinery, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥8.44 and the most bearish at CN¥5.10 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
即使營收預期下降,平均價格目標仍穩定在7.40元人民幣,這很可能意味着分析師對收益更加重視。然而,從這些數據可以得出的結論並不只有這一點,因爲有些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時也喜歡考慮預測的差異。徐工機械的看法存在一些差異,最看好的分析師估值爲8.44元人民幣,最看淡的爲5.10元人民幣每股。這顯示出預測仍存在一些多樣性,但分析師們似乎並不完全對該股分歧,不像可能是一個成功或失敗的情況。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that XCMG Construction Machinery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that XCMG Construction Machinery is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
從更大的視角來看,我們理解這些預測的一種方法是將其與過去的業績和行業增長預測進行比較。從最新的預測可以清楚地看出,徐工機械的增長速度預計會顯著加快,預計到2024年年化營業收入增長率爲16%,明顯快於過去五年的10%的歷史增長。行業內其他類似公司的預測也顯示,營業收入預計以每年16%的速度增長。考慮到營業收入預計加速增長,很明顯徐工機械預計將以與整個行業相同的速度增長。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥7.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最重要的是,情緒沒有發生重大變化,分析師再次確認公司的表現與之前的每股收益預期相符。他們還下調了營業收入預期,儘管如我們前面所見,預期增長預計只會與整個行業大致相同。話雖如此,公司的盈利卻更加重要。共識價位目標保持在7.40元,最新的預測對價格目標沒有產生影響。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on XCMG Construction Machinery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for XCMG Construction Machinery going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
基於此,我們不應該過快得出對徐工機械的結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更重要。我們對徐工機械的預測延伸到2026年,您可以免費在我們的平台上查看。
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with XCMG Construction Machinery .
此外,您還應該了解我們在徐工機械發現的2個警示信號。
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