BYD ELECTRONIC(285.HK):NEW NEV COMPONENT AND AI SERVER THEMES ARE PROMISING
BYD ELECTRONIC(285.HK):NEW NEV COMPONENT AND AI SERVER THEMES ARE PROMISING
Assembly & Component: Rev. from assembly and component were RMB48bn (+33% YoY, driven by strong Android demand and iPad EMS) and RMB15bn (+206% YoY, driven by Jabil consolidation), respectively. Mgmt. targets to further increase market share and new product lines with key US client. Mgmt. believes the Jabil integration is smooth: the capacity and yield rate ramp up since June for new 2H24 projects are performing well. The growth strategy in key US client remained unchanged, i.e., further market share and new design wins. Regarding Android, BYD-E's focus on high end like flagship and foldable is paying off with strong 1H24 assembly revenue YoY growth. Mgmt. expects Android and Apple growth to accelerate in 2H24 driven by on-device AI.BYD-E's 1H24 results was overall a miss to consensus due to weak GPM. Top line grew 40% YoY was driven by Jabil consolidation. Net income of RMB1.5bn was flat YoY due to weakness in energy storage system. In 2H24, BYD-E will enter consumer electronics peak season with smooth progress on Jabil consolidation and capacity ramp up, AI smartphone boom and BYD new car model launches. BYD-E's new growth drivers will be new NEV components like suspension, controller, sensor and ADAS as well as liquid cooling and relevant component for AI server such as Nvidia GB200 in 2H24, which will contribute to revenue growth and better margin. Maintain BUY with a new TP of HK$37.1 from HK$38.0 based on 14x 2025E EPS.
比亞迪-E的2024上半年業績總體上低於共識，主要是由於毛利率較弱。總收入同比增長40%，得益於捷普科技的整合。淨利潤爲15億元人民幣，同比持平，主要是由於能源儲存系統疲軟。2024下半年，比亞迪-E將進入消費電子旺季，捷普科技整合和產能提升進展順利，人工智能智能手機繁榮和比亞迪新車型發佈順利。比亞迪-E的新增長動力將是新能源汽車元件，如懸掛系統、控制器、傳感器和ADAS，以及液冷和與AI服務器相關的組件，如英偉達GB200，這將促進收入增長和更好的利潤率。維持買入評級，目標價爲37.1港元，基於2025E每股收益的14倍。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1H24 top line beat but bottom line miss: RMB79bn sales (+40% YoY) beat BOCIe and consensus by 6% and 4% respectively. GPM declined 1ppt YoY to 6.8%, missing BOCIe and consensus by 1.8ppts and 0.8ppt, mainly due to weakness energy storage system (ESS) business per mgmt. Sales expense increased 211% YoY due to customer resource amortisation (~RMB450m) of the Jabil M&A. NI remained flat YoY to RMB1.5bn, missing BOCIe and consensus by 17% and 15%, respectively.
2024上半年總收入超過預期，但底線不及預期：銷售額達790億元人民幣（同比增長40%），超過中銀國際和共識分別6%和4%。毛利率同比下降1個百分點至6.8%，不及中銀國際和共識分別1.8個百分點和0.8個百分點，主要是由於能源儲存系統（ESS）業務疲軟。由於捷普科技併購，銷售費用同比增加211%，達到了約4.5億元人民幣。淨利潤持平，達到15億元人民幣，分別較中銀國際和共識低17%和15%。
Assembly & Component: Rev. from assembly and component were RMB48bn (+33% YoY, driven by strong Android demand and iPad EMS) and RMB15bn (+206% YoY, driven by Jabil consolidation), respectively. Mgmt. targets to further increase market share and new product lines with key US client. Mgmt. believes the Jabil integration is smooth: the capacity and yield rate ramp up since June for new 2H24 projects are performing well. The growth strategy in key US client remained unchanged, i.e., further market share and new design wins. Regarding Android, BYD-E's focus on high end like flagship and foldable is paying off with strong 1H24 assembly revenue YoY growth. Mgmt. expects Android and Apple growth to accelerate in 2H24 driven by on-device AI.
組裝和元件：組裝業務收入爲480億元人民幣（同比增長33%），主要得益於強勁的安卓需求和iPad EMS（電子製造服務）。元件業務收入爲150億元人民幣（同比增長206%），主要得益於捷普科技的整合。管理層目標是進一步增加市場份額和與美國重要客戶的新產品線。管理層認爲捷普科技的整合是順利進行的：從6月份開始，新的2024下半年項目的產能和良率均表現良好。對於在安卓上，比亞迪-E專注於旗艦和摺疊等高端產品，取得了強勁的2024上半年組裝收入同比增長。管理層預計，由於設備內AI推動，安卓和蘋果的增長將在2024下半年加速。
AIS: 1H24 revenues grew 26% YoY thanks to strong BYD EV sales and higher penetration into intelligent cockpit, ADAS and thermal management. Intelligent suspension (including CDC, air suspension and valve etc.) and sensors are scheduled to enter volume production for several BYD new models in Oct and Nov. Regarding its non BYD business, BYD-E is working with global tier1 like Borsh and Continental but most of the projects should take time to materialise likely in 2026 given the long certification cycle for customised product. Mgmt. guide total revenue to reach RMB20bn in 2024.
智能系統：得益於比亞迪電動汽車銷售的強勁增長以及智能駕駛艙、ADAS和熱管理領域的滲透加深，2024年上半年智能系統業務收入同比增長26%。智能懸掛系統（包括CDC、氣動懸掛和閥門等）和傳感器計劃於10月和11月批量生產，應用於多款比亞迪新車型。關於非比亞迪業務，比亞迪-E與博世和康寧等全球一線客戶合作，但大部分項目需要時間來實現，預計在2026年左右，因爲針對定製產品的認證週期較長。管理層指導2024年總收入達到200億元人民幣。
NIP: 1H24 sales declined 16% YoY to RMB7.5bn, missing BOCIe by 20% primarily due to weak ESS sales. Mgmt. targets to ship 5k-10k AI servers in 2024, and over 10k in 2025. BYD-E is working with Nvidia on GB200 server. BYD-E targets to volume produce liquid cooling in Sep, rack system/CDU in 4Q24 and optical module and high-speed copper cable/connector in 2025 for GB200 server. For domestic server, small batch shipment has been delivered and BYD-E expects to enter mass volume production from 2025. Mgmt. guides NIP revenue to achieve RMB15-20bn in 2024.
NIP: 1H24銷售額同比下降16%，至人民幣75億元，較中銀國際預期低20%，主要原因是ESS銷售疲軟。管理層目標2024年出貨0.51萬台AI服務器，2025年超過1萬台。BYD-E正在與英偉達合作GB200服務器。BYD-E計劃於2024年9月量產液冷系統，2024年第四季度進行機架系統/CDU生產，並於2025年爲GB200服務器生產光模塊和高速銅電纜/連接器。對於國內服務器，小批量發貨已交付，BYD-E預計從2025年開始進入大規模生產。管理層預計NIP營業收入將在2024年達到人民幣150-200億元。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
1) Weak macro demand, 2) slow key client NPI design win, 3) BYD's EV growth slowdown and change in sourcing strategy, 4) unsmooth consolidation of Jabil.
1）宏觀需求疲軟，2）重要客戶NPI設計贏得緩慢，3）比亞迪的電動汽車增長放緩和採購策略變化，4）捷普科技的整合不夠順利。
Valuation
估值
We increase our 2024 revenues by 2% to primarily reflect upbeat assembly revenues from strong smartphone, offset by weakness in NIP and AIS.
我們將2024年的收入上調2%，主要反映強勁智能手機組裝收入的樂觀預期，但NIP和AIS業務疲軟部分抵消了這一增長。
The declining ESS business had a larger-than-expected impact on NIP GPM as per 1H24 results and management comment. We believe BYD-E needs time to find other profitable new NIP products like drones and robots to fill the gap. Therefore, we lower NIP GPM by 1.7-4.1ppts over 2024-26E. We keep GPM across other business lines largely stable besides AIS may face certain EV pricing pressure going forward.
根據1H24的業績和管理層的評論，ESS業務的下滑對NIP毛利率產生了超出預期的影響。我們認爲BYD-E需要時間來找到其他有利可圖的新NIP產品，如無人機和機器人，以填補這一空白。因此，我們在2024-26E期間將NIP毛利率下調1.7-4.1個百分點。除AIS可能面臨某些電動汽車定價壓力外，我們保持其他業務線的毛利率基本穩定。
In terms of non-ops, we lower the finance charges as Company had replaced the USD loan facility in July 2024 with RMB loan at much lower interest rate.
在非運營方面，由於公司已於2024年7月以更低的利率用人民幣貸款替換了美元貸款，我們降低了融資費用。
We cut 2024/25/26E EPS by 7%/10%/9% to RMB1.92/2.41/2.90. Our new target price of HK$37.1 is based on 14x 2025E EPS (was 17x 2024E EPS).
我們將2024/25/26E每股收益下調7%/10%/9%至人民幣1.92/2.41/2.90。我們基於2025E每股收益的14倍（原爲2024E每股收益的17倍）確定了新的目標價爲HK$37.1。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。